Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 14.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction the Russian forces did not conduct offensive actions. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 Russian attacks in the areas of Yampolivka and Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 10 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 24 enemy attacks in the area of Avdiivka and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy  near Heorhiivka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka, where the enemy tried to improve its tactical position 27 times employing air support. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks east of Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 5 unsuccessful assault attempts.

General conclusion:

  • The current limited capabilities of Russian forces, including ineffective counter-battery warfare and targeting objects in the operational rear of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the inability to detect camouflaged objects, and failures in countering Ukrainian technological parity, prevent the Russian Armed Forces from achieving the required level of operational agility, penetrating Ukrainian defenses, and conducting combat operations in the operational depth.
  • The adversary is intensifying its efforts on the Tavriya direction, particularly in Avdiivka, where they have delivered the highest number of aviation and artillery strikes since the beginning of 2024, including up to 60 aviation strikes with glide bombs on Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 71 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy has achieved tactical gains in the areas of Synkivka, Kyslivka, and north of Tabaivka, where it has made some progress.
  • Positional battles persisted near Synkivka, Lake Lyman, Tymkivka and Tabaivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, the enemy has advanced approximately 150 meters towards Terny. Russian forces have progressed into the fields east of Torske and by 300 meters into eastern Bilohorivka, seizing a stretch of the Shypylivka-Bilohorivka road.
  • Positional battles persisted in the areas near Nevske, Terny, Yampolivka, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy has slightly intensified attacks in the area of Khromove. Earlier counterattacks conducted there by the “Khortytsia” OSG units delayed the enemy’s advance for several weeks. Russian forces are partially advancing near Bohdanivka and have seized wooded areas near the village.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the critical situation persists, although the enemy has not been able to break through to the fire and rescue station, the “Brevno” restaurant, and the Severne-Avdiivka highway. The Lastochkyne-Avdiivka route has been cut off by the enemy, but this does not impede the logistics of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ garrison in Avdiivka, as they can utilize alternative routes. Extremely heavy fighting continues at the Zenit positions, as the enemy attempts to encircle the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The situation in Pervomaiske is also difficult, as there are no established line of contact in this area. Stabilization has been achieved in the Stepove area by the “Tavria” OSG forces.
  • Russian forces have advanced to the west in the Lastochkyne and Pervomaiske areas. Positional battles are ongoing within and near Avdiivka, near Tonenke, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, positional battles persisted near Heorhiivka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked south of Prechystivka and north of Pryiutne.
  • Tokmak direction: Russian forces have advanced to the west of Robotyne. Positional combat operations have been ongoing near Robotyne, northeast of Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, Novopokrovka, Verbove, and Novoprokopivka.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 8 ships.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The troops of the 29th Combined Arms Army continue to operate on the Vuhledar direction east of Velyka Novosilka.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy is close to encircling Avdiivka and is escalating efforts in this area.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The breach in the defense of the “Tavria” OSG and the subsequent advance of the enemy’s forward units from the eastern and southeastern sectors of the Avdiivka Coking Plant territory, reaching the line of the “Brevno” restaurant – Avdiivka vehicle station – “Ivushka” gardening community – western edge of the sand quarry, would mark the end of organized and cohesive defense of Avdiivka.
  • The Russian command will now begin to redeploy forces and assets on the Avdiivka direction, at least on a tactical level.
  • In the area of Novomykhailivka, the enemy will initially attempt to split the combat formations of the “Tavriya” OSG in the northern part of the Vuhledar bulge, in the general direction of Novomykhailivka – Paraskoviivka – Kostiantynivka. Subsequently, they will attack south of Vodyane thus compelling the “Tavriya” OSG to withdraw from its positions near Volodymyrivka and north of Mykilske.
  • The adversary command will reinforce its grouping in the northern and central parts of the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, particularly in the Novomykhailivka area with the 103rd and 163rd Tank Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army or the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.02.24 

Personnel – almost 398,140  people (+1060);

Tanks – 6,433 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,043 (+39);

Artillery systems – 9,566 (+66);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 984 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 671 (+4);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,662 (+39);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,371 (+39);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,882 (0);

Boats/ships – 25 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 120 towns and villages and 95 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. At least 7 civilians were killed, and another 23 were wounded in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Late in the evening on February 13th, Russian forces struck the mining town of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast located about 20 km away from the frontline. They targeted a 5-story building: 12 apartments in one of the entrances were completely destroyed, people were buried under the rubble. Their second strike targeted the local hospital. One person was injured, and around 100 patients from the hospital were evacuated to other cities. As of the morning of February 14th, 12 residents, including four children, were reported wounded and three civilians, including one child, were reported killed.
  • On February 14th at 14:20, Russian forces struck the town of Mykolaivka, Kramatorsk district. According to preliminary data, the enemy targeted civilians using the Tornado-S MLRS with cassette-type warheads. At 15:40, the Russian army launched another attack, presumably using fragmentation warheads from the MLRS “Smerch,” on the village of Bohatyr in the Volnovakha district. Five people were killed and three were injured in the two towns of Donetsk Oblast.
  • In Avdiivka, there are currently 926 residents. The road used for evacuating people from Avdiivka is under constant fire from Russian forces. Despite the danger, individuals are leaving independently, with 3-4 people departing each day.
  • Over the course of nearly two years of full-scale war, Russia has caused $3.5 billion in losses to Ukrainian culture. Damage inflicted by the Russian Federation in 2023 surged by 40% compared to the previous year, affecting 341 cultural sites, up from 248 in 2022, according to UNESCO assessments.

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