Russia’s war on Ukraine. 15.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forcesrepelled an enemy attack near Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled an attack near Terny, where the enemy tried to break through the defense.  On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled four attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka, where the enemy tried to improve their tactical position.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 40 enemy attacks in the area of Avdiivka, Severne and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy near Krasnohorivka, Pobeda and Novomykhailivka, where the enemy had more than 20 attempts to improve its tactical position. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 7 unsuccessful assault attempts.

General conclusion:

• The adversary is attempting to consolidate all the troops operating in the Crimean direction under the unified command of the “Dniepr (Dnipro)” Operational Grouping.
• The adversary continues to maintain a high intensity of combat operations on the Avdiivka direction and completing the repositioning of its forces and assets on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 83 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, battles are ongoing for Synkivka and Kyslivka. North of Tabaivka, the enemy was pushed back to the initial lines. Enemy forces continue  regrouping. The enemy has resumed attacks in the Tabaivka area, where units of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army have been deployed into combat in the 47th Tank Division’s offensive sector.
• On the Lyman direction, the encounter battlescontinue in the Serebryansk forestry. Units of the 47th Tank Division are being redeployed from the Kupyansk direction to the Lyman direction. Assault units of the 252nd and 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army) are concentrated in the Zhytlivka area. These units will be used to reinforce efforts towards Terny in support of the battalions of the 283rd and 488th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 144th Motorized Division (20th Combined Arms Army), which are engaged in combat in this area. Two assault companies of the 31st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Division of (25th Combined Arms Army) have arrived in the Yampolivka area. The enemy is shifting units of the 347th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 153rd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division to the Kreminna and Rubizhne area to replace the 90th Tank Division, which is being redeployed to Avdiivka. North-west of Kreminna, units of the 744th Self-propelled Artillery Regiment of the 47th Tank Division are being deployed. In the Dibrova area, preparations are underway for the rotation of the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division.
• Positional battles persisted in Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, Dibrova, and Bilohorivka areas.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy continues assaults west of Khromove and in the area of Bohdanivka, with limited success. Enemy attacks near Vesele were repelled.
• Russian troops advanced near Ivanivske along the T0504 highway connecting Kostiantynivka and Bakhmut;  by 750 meters on a stretch of up to 1.5 km along the front south of Bohdanivka. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Pivdenne, and Shumy. Russian forces struck Chasiv Yar with glide bombs.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the tactical situation is critical, and the line of contact is changing dynamically. The enemy is deploying the 90th Tank Division to reinforce its efforts in this direction.
• Russian forces have reached the main logistical route in Avdiivka along Hrushevsky Street. The enemy also advanced north of Avdiivka in the area of Avdiivka quarry, south of the Avdiivka Coking Chemical Plant, in an sector up to 1.4 km along the front and up to 930 meters in depth near Opytne. Russian forces control 15.4% of Avdiivka.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces are maintaining numerous alternative supply routes to Avdiivka. Positional battles persisted near Novobakhmutivka, Ocheretyne, Stepove, Severne, Nevelske, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant, Opytne, Avdiivka Coking Chemical Plant, in the northwestern and southern parts of Avdiivka.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy achieved gains in the eastern part of Novomykhailivka and attempting to advance towards the center, making progress on the southern approaches. Russian forces advanced west of Maryinka, in the areas of Novomykhailivka and Heorhiivka. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Pobeda.
• Berdyansk direction: positional battles took place south of Zolota Nyva and near Prechystivka.
• Tokmak direction: positional battles persisted near Robotyne, in the areas of Novopokrovka, Mala Tokmachka, Verbove, and Novoprokopivka.
• In the Kherson direction, the enemy continues attempts to eliminate the “Odesa” OSG strongholds on the left bank of the Dnipro River. The 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been reintroduced into combat near Krynky, with no achieved results.
• The enemy is preparing to resume active operations in the island part of the Dnipro Delta using sabotage reconnaissance group tactics with the onset of the spring period.
• In the area of Hola Prystan, the enemy has deployed up to 20 multi-purpose inflatable motorboats of the BL-680/820 type (capacity 8-14 persons, speed up to 25 knots) from the recently formed “river cutter division” within the 810th Separate Marine Brigade.
• In the rear areas of the 61st and 810th Separate Marine Brigades, the enemy is conducting training for personnel on procedures for river landing on undeveloped shores and conducting assault operations in the coastal zone.
• The most likely direction of the enemy’s attacks/assaults is the island of Bilohrudy, with the objective of completely removing “Odesa” OSG units from the area and establishing complete control over the island followed by further actions towards Berehove – Yantarne. The 61st Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Baltic Fleet has initiated the formation of 2 assault companies for river assault operations.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Black Sea: 3 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo was 4 cruise missiles.
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo wass 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The command of the “Joint Grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in the Southwest Theater of Military Operations” has changed its structure by disbanding the “Zaporizhzhia” operational grouping.
• The 58th Combined Arms Army has been transferred to the composition of the “Dniepr (Dnipro)” operational grouping. The 5th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies have become part of the “Vostok (East)” operational grouping. Thus, in addition to the Prydniprovsk direction, the Tokmak-Melitopol direction has also been included in the operational zone of the “Dniepr” operational grouping.
• The majority of the “land corridor” between Crimea and Donbas is now part of the operational zone of the “Vostok (East)” operational grouping.
• 7 Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops and 1 Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are concentrated in the first reserve of the “Zapad (West)” and “Center” operational groupings.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy is close to encircling Avdiivka and is escalating efforts in this area.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The assault units of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army are likely to be transferred from the Kupyansk direction to the operational subordination of the 144th Motorized Division’s commander. Their formation and manning has recently been completed in the division’s base area in Zaaidarivka.
• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• In the area of Novomykhailivka, the enemy will initially attempt to split the combat formations of the “Tavriya” OSG in the northern part of the Vuhledar bulge, in the general direction of Novomykhailivka – Paraskoviivka – Kostiantynivka. Subsequently, they will attack south of Vodyane thus compelling the “Tavriya” OSG to withdraw from its positions near Volodymyrivka and north of Mykilske.
• The adversary command will reinforce its grouping in the northern and central parts of the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, particularly in the Novomykhailivka area with the 103rd and 163rd Tank Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army or the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.02.24 

Personnel – almost 399,090  people (+950);

Tanks – 6,442 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,090 (+47);

Artillery systems – 9,620 (+54);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 984 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 671 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,691 (+29);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,404 (+33);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,882 (0);

Boats/ships – 26 (+1).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 14 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 140 towns and villages and 138 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 10 people were reported dead and 21 injured over the past day in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On February 14th, Russian forces killed 8 residents of Donetsk Oblast: 3 in Selydove, 3 in Mykolaivka, and 2 in Bogatyr. 13 people were wounded during the day.
• Ukrainian Air Defense Forces destroyed 13 out of 26 various types of missiles launched by Russia on the night of February 15th. The overall breakdown of Russian missile launches is as follows:
  • 12 cruise missiles X-101/X-555/X-55 from strategic aviation aircraft Tu-95MS (Engels)
  • 6 ballistic missiles “Iskander-M”/KN-23 (Voronezh)
  • 2 cruise missiles “Kalibr” (Novorossiysk)
  • 4 guided aviation missiles X-59 (occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Russia)
  • 2 guided anti-aircraft missiles S-300 (Belgorod Oblast, Russia)
• The Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted and destroyed:
  • 8 cruise missiles X-101/X-555/X-55
  • 1 ballistic missile “Iskander-M”/KN-23
  • 2 cruise missiles “Kalibr”
  • 2 guided aviation missiles X-59
• As a result of a massive Russian attack on the night of February 15th, several Oblenergo facilities in Lviv sustained considerable damage. 18 residential buildings, two schools, and a kindergarten were damaged. By the end of the day, it was revealed that an electric substation had been completely destroyed by fire.
• Debris of downed missiles fell in two towns in Kyiv Oblast, seven private houses, several outbuildings and cars were damaged.
• In the morning, the enemy attacked Zaporizhzhia. Several explosions were heard in the city, and there were reports of hits on infrastructure objects. Six people were injured, with one woman in critical condition and others in a moderate state.
• On February 15th, Russian forces struck the Vilkhivatska community with two guided aviation bombs. A civilian vehicle was hit, resulting in at least two civilian casualties – a man and his wife. A body of a 17 year old girl was discovered nearby. Additionally, a private residential house caught fire, with preliminary information indicating two people injured.
• ince the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 79 Ukrainian media workers have been killed, with 16 of them while performing their professional duties.

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