Russia’s war on Ukraine. 16.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled three enemy attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks near Terny, Yampolivka and Vesele. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 10 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  over the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 33 enemy attacks in the areas of Avdiivka, Lastochkyne, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. There is a planned reinforcement of units and maneuvering of forces on threatening fronts. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobeda and Novomykhailivka, repelling 34 attacks. On the Novopavlivka direction, they repelled 3 enemy attacks south of Prechystivka and in the vicinity of Staromayorske.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel Russian forces’ assaults. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 3 unsuccessful assault attempts. 

General conclusion:

• The successful withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Avdiivka defense area will depend on the resolute holding of positions in the Orlivka – Lastochkyne – Severne – Tonenke area and the 9th Quarter of Avdiivka.
• Units of the “Tavriya” OSG have withdrawn from positions under the threat of encirclement, including the “Zenit” position and the area near the Donetsk filtering station. However, they continued to control the territory east of the railway between the Avdiivka railway station and Turgenev Street.
• The enemy command has established the fact of the withdrawal the “Tavriya” OSG units from several positions in the Avdiivka defense area and will soon try to prevent them from continuing this process in an organized and phased manner.
• Russian troops operating in the Kupyansk sector are well trained and supplied, but use retreat-blocking detachment in the area.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 95 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, in Synkivka, the enemy did not advance for the first time in about a week, but they moved to the northeast of Synkivka and southeast of Vilshana. Positional battles persisted near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Pisky, Berestove, Kotlyarivka, and Kyslivka.
• On the Lyman direction, the Russian troops advanced towards Terny and captured almost 90% of the industrial zone near Bilohorivka. Positional battles persisted in areas south of Nevske, near Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, and Dibrova.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy achieved gains west of Khromove and is attempting to consolidate their position. Units of the enemy’s 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade advanced to the outskirts of Ivanivske. Positional battles occurred near Vesele, Bohdanivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, and Pivdenne.
• Russian command is shifting new units to the Bakhmut direction from other sections of the front. The enemy is intensifying efforts in the direction of Bohdanivka – Chasiv Yar.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy has significant gains in the southeastern part of the city, advancing west of the Industrial Avenue. The 114th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades  are consolidating in the area of the “Brevno” restaurant and the Avdiivka vehicle station, preparing to continue the offensive in the southwestern and southern directions and to cut off the last communication line of the “Tavriya” OSG in the Severne – Orlovske – ATP-100 sector.
• The 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 10th Tank Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division are preparing to attack in the directions of Vodyane-Severne and Opytne; the southern enemy grouping will attempt to attack the 9th Quarter. The 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade may also be engaged in these actions.
• In the southern and southeastern parts of Avdiivka, the 2nd Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade “Veterans,” the 1487th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops, and the 87th Rifle Regiment of the mobilization reserve will continue the displacement of the “Tavriya” OSG units to the north. 
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy has more gains. Russian troops have advanced towards Heorhiivka and along Timiryazevska Street on the southeastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka. Positional battles continue in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobeda, and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian forces have recently advanced to the west of Novodonetske. The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled enemy attacks near Staromayorske, south of Zolota Nyva, and Prechystivka.
• Tokmak direction: Units of the enemy’s 247th Air Assault Regiment captured several positions near Verbove. Positional battles persisted near Robotyne and Verbove.
• Kherson direction: Positional battles continued in the area of Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Black Sea: 2 ships.
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo was 8 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:  

• Units of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps continue to operate near Bilohorivka.

Escalation indicators: 

• The enemy is close to encircling Avdiivka and is escalating efforts in this area.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Defense Forces will leave Avdiivka within the next few days.
• Persistent enemy’s attempts to breach the area between Severne and the 9th Quarter, both from the north and the south, should be expected. The objective is to deprive the “Tavriya” OSG units, still defending in the central part of Avdiivka, of the opportunity to withdraw in the western direction timely and with minimal losses.
• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• Likely, assault units of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army will be placed under the operational command of the commander of the 144th Motorized Division, transferring from the Kupyansk direction. Their formation and completion were recently finalized in the division’s base area in the village of Zaaidarivka.
• In the area of Novomykhailivka, the enemy will initially attempt to split the combat formations of the “Tavriya” OSG in the northern part of the Vuhledar bulge, in the general direction of Novomykhailivka – Paraskoviivka – Kostiantynivka. Subsequently, they will attack south of Vodyane, thus compelling the “Tavriya” OSG to withdraw from its positions near Volodymyrivka and north of Mykilske.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 16.02.24  

Personnel – almost 400,300 people (+1,210); 

Tanks – 6,465 (+23); 

Armored combat vehicles – 12,129 (+39); 

Artillery systems – 9,641 (+21);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 984 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 671 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,716 (+25);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,408 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,895 (+13);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 99 towns and villages and 89 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 5 people were reported killed and 11 injured in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On February 16th, Ukraine repatriated the bodies of 58 fallen defenders during another repatriation operation.
• In the liberated territories of Kharkiv Oblast, law enforcement authorities have identified 875 out of 1,008 individuals killed at the time of the Russian occupation, with 29 of them being children. Regional police officers alone have registered nearly 17 thousand war crimes by Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, two people were killed as a result of a blast on an anti-personnel mine, while another person was injured. The incident occurred on February 16 near the village of Dovgenke in Izyum district.
• The Russian Federation’s army is using phosphorus shells in the battles for Avdiivka, causing oil tanks to catch fire at the coking plant.

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