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Russia’s war on Ukraine. 17.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled three enemy attacks near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 17 Russian attacks in the areas of Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, and Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 13 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 43 enemy attacks in the area of Lastochkyne, Avdiivka, west of Berdychi, near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy near Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka, where Russian forces, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 12 times. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to attack positions of the Ukrainian troops south-east of Mala Tokmachka three times.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 4 unsuccessful assault attempts.

General conclusion:

  • The slow pace of the Russian advance in Avdiivka indicates the organized withdrawal of the units of the “Tavriya” OSG
  • The adversary, aiming to impede the withdrawal of “Tavriya” OSG units and inflict substantial operational losses on them, will be compelled to operate in open terrain, leading to excessive losses on the Russian side.
  • The capture of Avdiivka itself will not provide any significant operational advantages or prospects for the development of the Russian offensive.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 90 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, combat persisted for Synkivka and Kyslivka. Russian forces have advanced west of Synkivka on the eastern bank of Lake Lyman and west of Karmazynivka. Positional battles continued near Ivanivka, Tabaivka, and Tymkivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, in the area of Terny, the enemy faced a decisive counterattack from “Khortytsia” OSG units, suffered losses, and retreated. Positional battles were ongoing near Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, and Bilohorivka. The enemy has advanced east of Yampolivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted assault operations towards Ivanivske but was repelled to the initial positions over the weekend.
  • Russian forces have advanced to the northwest of Vesele, where positional battles are ongoing. Additionally, positional battles have persisted in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Pivdenne. The 106th Airborne Division, the 58th Separate SOF Battalion of the 1st Army Corps, and the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division are advancing towards Chasiv Yar.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the “Tavriya” OSG has accomplished its main intermediate task by withdrawing units from the most dangerous areas to other positions, from the majority of the city except for the Avdiivka Coking Plant area and the 9th district (16.02.2024). The situation has become more complicated in the area of the Avdiivka Coking Plant.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG troops have commenced withdrawal from Avdiivka to prepared positions, encountering active resistance from the enemy. As of 13:00 on February 16th, the enemy had failed to encircle any Ukrainian units.
  • Russian forces have advanced further south along Hrushevsky Street on the western outskirts of Avdiivka and south of the Avdiivka Coking Plant, achieving minor successes in the summer house areas in the northeast of Avdiivka. They have seized the Avdiivka city park in the center of Avdiivka and have advanced south along Hrushevsky Street towards the western outskirts of Avdiivka in the direction of the “Tavriya” OSG backup logistic routes.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG troops are deploying reinforcements to the Avdiivka area to stabilize the situation and inflict even greater losses on the attacking enemy forces. The distance between the flanks of the enemy grouping that attempted to encircle Avdiivka from the north and south is approximately 3.5 km.
  • The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted a series of counterattacks after being redeployed to Avdiivka, pushing back units of the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army and the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army, which facilitated the withdrawal of other “Tavriya” OSG units of from Avdiivka.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, intense battles continued, and the logistics of the “Tavriya” OSG units have deteriorated. Positional battles continued in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Prechystivka and south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske.
  • Tokmak direction: Positional battles continued near Robotyne, Novoprokopivka and Verbove.
  • Kherson direction: positional battles continued in the area of Krynky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo was 4 cruise missiles.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo was 8 cruise missiles.
  • At the 13th Shipyard of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the occupied Sevastopol (Kilen Bay), a Large Landing Ship of Project 775 and a Missile Boat of Project 1241 are undergoing repairs.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps is engaged in combat operations in the area of Spirne.
  • The 71st Anti-aircraft Missile Brigade of the 35th Army is active on the Zaporizhzhia direction.  
  • Russian forces are concentrating a large grouping of troops in the Orikhiv direction, preparing for an offensive operation in this sector. In terms of its size, the grouping is comparable to the Russian forces near Avdiivka and amounts to up to 50,000 personnel.

Escalation indicators:

  • The transfer of the 90th Tank Division from Kupyansk to the Avdiivka direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • Likely, assault units of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army will be placed under the operational command of the commander of the 144th Motorized Division, transferring from the Kupyansk direction. Their formation and completion were recently finalized in the division’s base area in the village of Zaaidarivka.
  • In the area of Novomykhailivka, the enemy will initially attempt to split the combat formations of the “Tavriya” OSG in the northern part of the Vuhledar bulge, in the general direction of Novomykhailivka – Paraskoviivka – Kostiantynivka. Subsequently, they will attack south of Vodyane, thus compelling the “Tavriya” OSG to withdraw from its positions near Volodymyrivka and north of Mykilske.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 17.02.24 

Personnel – almost 401,350 people (+1050);

Tanks – 6,476 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,145 (+16);

Artillery systems – 9,669 (+28);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 984 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 671 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,734 (+18);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,413 (+5);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,896 (+1);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).


Humanitarian+general:

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 103 towns and villages and 46 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 1 person was reported killed and 6 injured in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On February 17, Russian forces dropped guided and fragmentation aerial bombs on residential quarters in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. The preliminary number of wounded is five, three women and two men. There are still people trapped under the rubble.
  • In the occupied city of Berdyansk, the occupation authorities launched a pre-election door-to-door campaign. From February 17th to March 7th, the authorities plan to visit each household to “inform” residents about the upcoming presidential elections in the Russian Federation, Victoria Halitsyna, the head of Berdyansk Military Administration said.

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