Russia’s war on Ukraine. 24.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy made 2 unsuccessful attacks on the Ukrainian positions near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled two enemy attacks near Terny, and on the Bakhmut direction, they thwarted nine attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka and Ivanivske.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Lastochkyne, Severne, and Pervomaiske. On the Maryinka direction, Ukrainian troops continue to hold back the enemy in the areas of Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, where the enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian defense 44 times. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 8 enemy attacks near Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain their positions and repelled eight enemy assaults.

General conclusion:

• Pobieda village, captured by the enemy, is located north of Kostiantynivka and Novomykhailivka, which is being attacked by the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Pacific Feet. Despite the robust defense put up by the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade and the 116th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, the adversary managed to reach the eastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka.
• In the upcoming period, the predominant means of the Russian Black Sea Fleet for executing long-range missile strikes against coastal targets will consist of three missile corvettes of Project 21631, four missile corvettes of Project 22800, and two submarines of Project 636.3.
• The two Project 11356 frigates will continue to be the sole vessels of their class and type in the Black Sea in the foreseeable future. These frigates may also serve as platforms for the enemy to conduct cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian territory. Due to the high vulnerability of the adversary’s missile frigates to Ukrainian unmanned naval vessels, operations will be conducted from the Novorossiysk Naval Base located in the eastern part of the Black Sea.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces are anticipated to experience a critical shortage of ammunition and anti-aircraft missiles by the end of March 2024. This deficiency is expected to escalate significantly during spring and summer of 2024.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 84 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy, over the past three days, repeatedly attacked Synkivka and Tabaivka, but all assaults were repelled by units of the “Khortytsia” OSG.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy, over the past three days, made several unsuccessful attacks on Terny and Vyimka.
• The forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG launched a counterattack against the enemy’s 2nd Motorized Rifle Division southeast of Terny, pushing it back approximately 500 meters.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy launched a powerful attack on the positions of the “Khortytsia” OSG in the vicinity of Bohdanivka, towards Kainivka and Chasiv Yar. They penetrated the positions held by the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade, 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, and the 23rd Separate SOF Battalion of the Presidential Brigade, but were decisively defeated, and remnants of their units retreated. The enemy’s 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade entered Ivanivske, achieving success by displacing units of the 24th Separate Assault Battalion “Aydar” of the 5th Separate Assault Brigade. Given that the defense of the village is upheld by units of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 17th Separate Tank Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the flanks, the immediate outlook indicates a challenging scenario for the adversary. The adversary is already compelled to retreat to the outskirts of the village, sustaining losses of up to 10 BMPs and 70 personnel. While the enemy is reinforcing in the vicinity of Ivanivske, the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade has successfully executed several effective strikes, destroying up to 5 enemy BMPs.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy continued its assault on Lastochkyne. Units of the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade attacked the enemy convoy using FPV drones as it moved in Avdiivka near the railway station. They destroyed several trucks and inflicted a blow on the enemy attacking Lastochkyne with cassette ammunition, causing losses to them on the western approaches to the village.
• The enemy is rotating troops, engaging at least 2 battalions from the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the assaults. The main attack directions of the enemy are Krasnohorivka – Stepove, Avdiivka Coking Plant – Orlivka, the northern outskirts of Avdiivka – Lastochkyne, and the western outskirts of Avdiivka – Severne.
• In Stepove, the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces deployed M1A1 Abrams tanks for the first time.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Army captured the village of Peremoha. The 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the “Tavria” OSG launched a counterattack but had to retreat due to a lack of artillery ammunition, without accomplishing its mission. The enemy aviation intensively bombed Kurakhove.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces executed a counterattack, catching the enemy’s 225th Motorized Rifle Regiment off guard and successfully reclaiming half of Pobeda village. The combat operations are ongoing. To the south, units of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade blocked the movement of the enemy assault group attempting to advance towards the eastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka and destroyed 3 BMPs and enemy personnel.
• Berdyansk direction: Positional battles persisted in the areas of Zolota Nyva, Novodonetske, Staromayorske, and Shevchenkove.
• Tokmak direction: The enemy launched an assault on Robotyne from the west and south, deploying the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle  Brigade, and the 235th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division. They initiated an advance eastward beyond the Verbove – Novoprokopivka line. They managed to infiltrate the positions of the 117th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Defense Forces on the Height 110 between Robotyne and Verbove. The command of the “Tavria” OSG forces shifted up to 600 personnel northward on a section up to 2 km wide, thereby reducing the line of the contact and maintaining control of Robotyne.
• Kherson direction: Krynky are still under the control of the Ukrainian Marine Corps. The “Odesa” OSG continue to reinforce positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, despite consistent enemy attempts to disrupt logistical support in this area.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship.
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships.
• Stationed at the bases:
  • Sevastopol Naval Base: Missile Corvette Project 22800 “Cyclone” (tasked with enhancing the air defense of the main fleet base).
  • Novorossiysk Naval Base: Frigates Project 11356 “Admiral Makarov,” “Admiral Essen,” small missile ships Project 21631 “Vyshny Volochek,” “Hrayvoron,” “Ingushetia,” missile corvette Project 22800 “Amur” (under testing), “Tucha” (under testing), submarines Project 636.6 “Stary Oskol,” “Kolpino,” “Veliky Novgorod.”
  • Kerch Naval Base: Missile Corvette Project 22800 “Askold” (under repair).
• Missile Corvette Project 22800 “Askold” and submarine Project 636.3 “Rostov-na-Donu” are undergoing extensive repairs and will not be returned to the fleet’s combat strength in the short term.
• Only submarines, of which the enemy has 2 in operational condition, are capable of safely carrying out tasks involving missile strikes.

Change in enemy disposition:

• Near Staromayorske, units of the 1466th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops are operating. In the vicinity of Urozhaine, there are forces from the 30th Artillery Brigade of the 36th Army. Close to Pryiutne, units from the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army are deployed.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy significantly increased the intensity of combat operations in the Maryinka area.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• Russian forces may advance towards Kostiantynivka along Highway O0532 or towards Heorhiivka along Highway H15.
• The intense air strikes on Kurakhove serves as a preparation to an impending offensive in this area in the upcoming days.
• On the Shakhtarsk front, the adversary currently maintains air superiority, posing a challenge for the “Tavria” OSG forces, which exhibit in this area the least robust air defense capabilities across the entire front. As a result, anticipations include enemy efforts to break through from the Kostiantynivka – Novomykhailivka area into the flank and rear of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Defense Forces near Vuhledar. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 24.02.24 

Personnel – almost 409,010 people (+770);

Tanks – 6,534 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,425 (+15);

Artillery systems – 9,952 (+36);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 999 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 684 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,988 (+28);

Aircraft – 340 (+1);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,659 (+31);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,905 (+2);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 141 towns and villages and 87 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• The Southern Defense Forces reported the downing of 12 enemy drones and two Kh-59 missiles in their operational zone. Debris from one of the drones fell onto a house in Odesa, starting a fire. A man died and his wife was rescued from the rubble and hospitalized in critical condition. 
• According to the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Russian forces have intensified shelling of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Two people were wounded over the past day. 
• Two teenage girls, who endured nearly two years under occupation, have been successfully repatriated to Ukrainian-controlled territory. At the onset of the full-scale war, the girls were residing with their grandparents in a small village in Luhansk Oblast, as their mother worked in the city. However, due to the Russian occupation of the village, immediate evacuation of the girls was not feasible.
• Russian occupation authorities have started issuing Russian passports to remaining residents of Avdiivka.
• Since the start of the full-scale invasion in Ukraine, children in frontline areas have been forced to spend from 3,000 to 5,000 hours or 4 to 7 months in shelters, according to a statement by UNICEF.
• Due to shelling, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been operating on a single power line since February 21, 2024, according to the Ministry of Energy press service.

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