Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 25.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks in the area of Terny and on the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 13 enemy attacks in the areas of Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks in the area of Lastochkyne, Severne, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the area of Novomykhailivka, where Russian troops attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 39 times. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled one enemy attack south of Zolota Nyva. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 5 enemy attacks in the area of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions and repelled 2 enemy assaults.

General conclusion:

  • On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary extensively employs less capable units, primarily composed of mobilized, penal, and incarcerated personnel, while preserving the core of its regular forces. The terrain of this area prevent the complete exploitation of numerical superiority in forces and resources.
  • In the Bakhmut area, Russian forces have notably increased pressure on Ukrainian positions in Bohdanivka, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Without the deployment of extra troops and supplies to this area, the situation may deteriorate significantly. The heightened enemy activity in this specific area indirectly indicates the occupying forces’ intentions to launch an offensive on Kramatorsk and Slovyansk after Avdiivka.
  • The enemy is breaking through to Chasiv Yar passing through the villages of Ivanivske, Bohdanivka, and Hryhorivka. They are employing aviation (guided bombs), helicopters, heavy artillery, and armored vehicles in their offensive. Additionally, they have relocated a portion of their troops from the vicinity of Avdiivka and are dispatching reinforcements from the regions of Rostov, Voronezh, and Belgorod.
  • Enemy brigades, transferred from Avdiivka, and supported by aviation, artillery, and armored vehicles, are advancing towards Vuhledar from the east and northeast. The enemy has captured the village of Pobieda, opening the road to Vuhledar. Battles are ongoing in Heorhiivka, which opens the route to Kurakhove.
  • The enemy is actively engaged in combat operations against the Ukrainian foothold in Krynky and nearby areas, attempting to seize Robotyne, which is under full fire control by “Tavria” OSG. They are advancing north of Pryiutne, but all these actions are tactical in nature, with no large-scale offensive occurring.
  • In the assault on Ivanivske, the enemy employs a tactic reminiscent of battles near Avdiivka: a strike group, comprising 100-200 personnel on 8-12 IFVs, rapidly advances to the front line of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and initiates an attack. Due to an ammunition shortage, a segment of the assault group reaches the target and engages in combat. Concurrently, another assault group swiftly moves towards the battle area. This tactic allows for a continuous buildup of effort but results in substantial enemy losses (up to 60% of armored vehicles in a single attack and up to half of the personnel). This also leads to increased casualties in the Ukrainian Defense Forces units, which is critical for them.
  • The enemy has overcome the fear of using aviation directly over the battlefield, and although this results in the loss of aircraft, their ground forces gain a significant firepower advantage.
  • Russian armed forces have addressed the shortage of UAVs, thermal imagers, and communication equipment. The coordination of the enemy units has significantly improved, along with the speed of information exchange, leading to a reduction in friendly fire incidents.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces are facing issues with the deployment of engineering units, which are in short supply, forcing combat units to undertake some of their tasks.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 84 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles continued near Synkivka and Lyman Lake.
  • On the Lyman direction, positional battles persisted in the area of Zhytlivka and near Terny.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces have advanced south and southeast of Bohdanivka. Positional battles are ongoing in the vicinity of Klishchiivka and Andriivka. The 5th Separate Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces is holding off attacks by the enemy 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade in Ivanivske.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, units of the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army have advanced in the southeastern part of Lastochkyne, while the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces retreated from the village. Russian forces have advanced up to 1.5 km in the direction of Orlivka. Positional battles are ongoing near Orlivka, Lastochkyne, Severne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, “Tavriya” OSG units conducted a partially successful counterattack near Pobieda, which destabilized the Russian positions near the village. Positional battles were ongoing near Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka. South of Pobieda, the enemy launched a large-scale attack on Novomykhailivka. “Tavriya” OSG units destroyed Russian units that had consolidated on the outskirts of Novomykhailivka, resulting in the frontline shifting 1.5 km eastward.
  • Berdyansk direction: positional battles continued near Shevchenkove and Zolota Nyva. Russian forces advanced north of Pryiutne.
  • Tokmak direction: the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the enemy’s 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (58th Army), advanced into the center of Robotyne, but the attack was repelled by units of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade, including the use of FPV drones. Positional battles took place near Verbove and Mala Tokmachka.
  • Kherson direction: Krynky are still under the control of the Ukrainian Marine Infantry. “Odesa” OSG continues to supply positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, despite the enemy’s persistent attempts to disrupt logistical support in this area.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 3 ships.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat near Berestove.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy has significantly intensified the intensity of combat operations in the area of Maryinka.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • Chasiv Yar serves as an intermediate objective [for the adversary], with the primary task being to reach the fortified area of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk by summer from three directions: from Bakhmut, Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka, and from the side of Lyman and the northern bank of the Siversky Donets River. The goal is to block a significant Ukrainian force concentration in that area, facilitating the southern advancement into the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • On the Shakhtarsk front, the adversary currently maintains air superiority, posing a challenge for the “Tavria” OSG forces, which exhibit in this area the least robust air defense capabilities across the entire front. As a result, anticipations include enemy efforts to break through from the Kostiantynivka – Novomykhailivka area into the flank and rear of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Defense Forces near Vuhledar. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.
  • The Vuhledar direction is among the top three priorities for the Russian Armed Forces. There is a continuous influx of reinforcements, equipment, and artillery ammunition with the objective of penetrating Kurakhove, a vital logistical center for the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The intention is to create a threat of encirclement for the entire Vuhledar grouping from the north, thereby posing a significant risk to the left flank of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the entire Zaporizhzhia front.
  • In the area of Robotyne, the Russian Armed Forces conducted an operation to tie down Ukrainian reserves and are now attempting to develop it into a full-fledged offensive to address tactical objectives in this section of the front.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 25.02.24 

Personnel – almost 407,240 people (+1160);

Tanks – 6,523 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,373 (+35);

Artillery systems – 9,867 (+41);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 997 (+5);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 680 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,924 (+63);

Aircraft – 339 (+1);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,596 (+36);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,903 (0);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).


  • According to President Zelensky, 31,000 Ukrainian servicemen have been killed in action in the war with Russia.
  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 141 towns and villages and 87 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 2 people were reported killed and 11 injured in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Ukrainian air defense destroyed 16 out of 18 Russian “Shahed” drones that attacked Ukraine on the night of February 25. An infrastructure object was damaged in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
  • During the night of February 25, the Russian forces launched a massive strike on Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast with S-300 missiles, causing extensive damage to many buildings, including the railway station and a church.
  • One person was reported wounded in Donetsk Oblast in the past day. Overall, since the start of the full scale Russian aggression 1,872 people have been killed and 4,615 wounded in the Oblast. These numbers do not include Russian aggression victims in Mariupol and Volnovakha.
  • The Russian Armed Forces shelled 10 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast 263 times over the course of the past day, resulting in one fatality and two injuries.
  • On February 25, Russian occupiers dropped an explosive device from a UAV onto a truck in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in the death of a man.
  • During the day on February 25, the Russian army struck a farm near Zaporizhzhia, resulting in one person killed and three injured due to the shelling.
  • Due to the war, approximately one in seven schools in Ukraine has been damaged, and 400 educational institutions have been completely destroyed.
  • During the full-scale war, Ukrainian courts have issued 80 verdicts against Russian war criminals, Ukrainian Prosecutor General said.
  • After the power line was damaged as a result of shelling, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been operating on a single power line for five days already, according to the Ministry of Energy’s press service.

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