Russia’s war on Ukraine. 26.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled6 enemy attacks in the area of Synkivka and Tabaivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 5 Russian attacks in the area of Terny and Bilohorivka and on the Bakhmut direction – 8 enemy attacks in the areas of Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 enemy attacks in the area of Severne, Stepove, Berdychi, Lastochkyne and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy  in the area of Novomykhailivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Krasnohorivka where the enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 40 times. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks in the area of Robotyne and 1 attack in the area of Huliaypilske.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions and repelled 4 assaults by occupation forces.

General conclusion:

• The absence of comments from Russian officials regarding the course of the so-called Special Military Operation on the occasion of its 2nd anniversary indicates a lack of progress in achieving the goals of this operation.
• Russian occupiers executed 9 Ukrainian servicemen who had surrendered in the vicinity of Ivanivske. This marks the fourth documented case of violation of the Geneva Conventions on the Treatment of Prisoners of War by Russian servicemen.
• After each assault on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, Russian forces are compelled to spend 2-3 days regrouping due to personnel and equipment losses.
• On the Berdyansk direction, the Russian command has created a strike group that may consist of untapped tactical reserves.
• Russian military activity in the vicinity of Kamianske has escalated.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 95 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, in the course of the last week positional battles continued near Synkivka and Tabaivka.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces have advanced in the area of Yampolivka and Terny. Positional battles have been ongoing near Terny, Torske, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces have advanced north of Ivanivske. Positional battles have been ongoing near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, New York, and Pivdenne.
• On the Avdiivka direction, “Tavriya” OSG troops withdrew to the western outskirts of Lastochkyne, where they took up prepared defensive positions. Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Stepove, Tonenke, Severne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, “Tavriya” OSG units regained some positions near Solodke. Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction: fighting persisted south of Zolota Nyva, Novodonetske, and near Hulyaipole.
• Tokmak direction: Russian forces have advanced within Robotyne amid ongoing localized attacks in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The adversary has seized positions southwest of Verbove.
• “Tavriya” OSG attempted to counterattack and push back Russian forces to the outskirts of Robotyne.
• Kherson direction: Russian forces have made slight progress along Ostap Vyshnia Street in Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship.
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• South of Bakhmut, units of the 177th Separate Marine Infantry Regiment of the Russian Caspian Fleet have been observed.
• Units of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army are operating in the area of Nevelske – Pervomaiske, while units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the same Army Corps are engaged in combat operations north of Avdiivka.
• Units of the 45th Separate SOF Brigade of the Russian Airborne Forces and the 337th Air Assault Regiment of the 104th Air Assault Division are operating near Krynky.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy has significantly intensified the intensity of combat operations in the area of Maryinka.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• Chasiv Yar serves as an intermediate objective [for the adversary], with the primary task being to reach the fortified area of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk by summer from three directions: from Bakhmut, Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka, and from the side of Lyman and the northern bank of the Siversky Donets River. The goal is to block a significant Ukrainian force concentration in that area, facilitating the southern advancement into the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• On the Shakhtarsk front, the adversary currently maintains air superiority, posing a challenge for the “Tavria” OSG forces, which exhibit in this area the least robust air defense capabilities across the entire front. As a result, anticipations include enemy efforts to break through from the Kostiantynivka – Novomykhailivka area into the flank and rear of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Defense Forces near Vuhledar. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.
• The Vuhledar direction is among the top three priorities for the Russian Armed Forces. There is a continuous influx of reinforcements, equipment, and artillery ammunition with the objective of penetrating Kurakhove, a vital logistical center for the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The intention is to create a threat of encirclement for the entire Vuhledar grouping from the north, thereby posing a significant risk to the left flank of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the entire Zaporizhzhia front.
• In the area of Robotyne, the Russian Armed Forces conducted an operation to tie down Ukrainian reserves and are now attempting to develop it into a full-fledged offensive to address tactical objectives in this section of the front.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 26.02.24 

Personnel – almost 410,700  people (+880);

Tanks – 6,555 (+13);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,478 (+37);

Artillery systems – 9,993 (+12);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1000 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 686 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,037 (+26);

Aircraft – 340 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,707 (+26);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,910 (+3);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 117 towns and villages and 113 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of February 26, the Russian forces launched 7 missiles and 14 “Shahed” drones at Ukraine. Of these, 3 missiles and 9 drones were successfully destroyed.
• Overnight on February 26, Russian troops conducted an airstrike using guided aerial bombs (KABs) on the Yunakivska community in Sumy Oblast. The attack resulted in the destruction of a private residence and the loss of two lives.
• Due to shelling from the Russian Federation, one of the water pipelines is damaged, leading to a temporary 25% reduction in water supply to Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka.
• In the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia region, “early voting” has begun in the so-called presidential elections of the Russian Federation. According to information from the Center of National Resistance, Russians will be going door-to-door in residential areas of the temporarily occupied regions for three weeks. Currently, they are conducting raids with law enforcement officers and so-called representatives of electoral commissions. Russians are urging people to “vote” at home.

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