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Russia’s war on Ukraine. 27.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled2 enemy attacks in the area of Ivanivka, Tabaivka, and 20 more enemy attacks near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 6 enemy attacks near Terny and on the Bakhmut direction – 9 enemy attacks in the areas of Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 19 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Severne, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy near Novomykhailivka, where the enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 25 times. The Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Pobieda. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 6 enemy attacks in the area of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions and repelled 2 Russian assaults.

General conclusion:

  • While Russia currently holds the initiative regarding the timing, location, and scale of potential future offensives in Ukraine, if Ukraine adopts an active defense across the entire theater of military operations, it could buy valuable time for resource accumulation and offensive preparations.
  • In the last 6-7 weeks, the adversary has concentrated its efforts in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka-Shakhtarska, and Robotyne regions, altering the dynamics from the previous pressure on 7 sectors before the capture of Avdiivka.
  • Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful disinformation campaign aimed at concealing Russian redeployments under Avdiivka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 96 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles took place near Synkivka, Tabaivka, and Ivanivka during the past week.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced to the east of Bilohorivka. Positional battles persisted near Terny and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the assaults on Bohdanivka and Ivanivske escalated into significant bloodshed. The 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the enemy secured the eastern outskirts of Ivanivske but cannot progress further west. The defense line encompassing Bohdanivka – Ivanivske – Klishchiivka is maintained by the 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, 42nd and 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigades, 5th and 92nd Separate Assault Brigades, 241st Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, three UAV units, 17th Separate Tank Brigade, and one artillery brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The Russian Aerospace Forces persist in carrying out intensive airstrikes on Chasiv Yar and targets within the operational rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the command of the “Tavriya” OSG withdrew its forces from several positions. Two battalions of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, which participated in the evacuation of the Avdiivka garrison, took up defense along the line of Berdychi – Semenivka – Umanske – Yasnobrodivka. The 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade retreated to Tonenke to avoid encirclement. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade is holding back attacks by the enemy’s 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.
  • The enemy forces of the 30th, 35th, 55th, and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades captured Lastochkyne and Severne, and on February 26th, Tonenke as well. Leveraging positions in Tonenke, Lastochkyne, and Avdiivka Coking Plant, the enemy have launched an assault on Orlivka from the east and south.
  • Positional battles took place in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Berdychi, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, positional battles occurred in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: battles persisted south of Zolota Nyva, Novodonetske, and near Hulyaipole.
  • Tokmak direction: Russian troops withdrew from the southern part of Robotyne. The 33rd and 65th Separate Mechanized Brigades of the Ukrainian Defense Forces took control of all their initial positions, extensively using FPV-drones. The forces of the “Tavria” OSG maintain the front line southeast of Robotyne. Units of the 1st Separate Tank Brigade, 14th Separate Assault Brigade, 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade, and 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade not only held their positions but also regained control over positions lost last week.
  • Kherson direction: positional battles continued on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky. Russian forces intensified the use of reconnaissance UAVs in the south of Ukraine.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Units of the 16th Separate SOF Brigade operate on the Kupyansk direction.
  • The UAV unit “Black Hussars” of the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army and units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army  operate northwest of Avdiivka. Units of the 1st “Slovyanska” Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps operate near Stepove.
  • On the southern direction of Donetsk Oblast, units of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army  are active.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • Chasiv Yar serves as an intermediate objective [for the adversary], with the primary task being to reach the fortified area of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk by summer from three directions: from Bakhmut, Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka, and from the side of Lyman and the northern bank of the Siversky Donets River. The goal is to block a significant Ukrainian force concentration in that area, facilitating the southern advancement into the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • On the Shakhtarsk front, the adversary currently maintains air superiority, posing a challenge for the “Tavria” OSG forces, which exhibit in this area the least robust air defense capabilities across the entire front. As a result, anticipations include enemy efforts to break through from the Kostiantynivka – Novomykhailivka area into the flank and rear of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Defense Forces near Vuhledar. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.
  • The Vuhledar direction is among the top three priorities for the Russian Armed Forces. There is a continuous influx of reinforcements, equipment, and artillery ammunition with the objective of penetrating Kurakhove, a vital logistical center for the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The intention is to create a threat of encirclement for the entire Vuhledar grouping from the north, thereby posing a significant risk to the left flank of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the entire Zaporizhzhia front.
  • In the area of Robotyne, the Russian Armed Forces conducted an operation to tie down Ukrainian reserves and are now attempting to develop it into a full-fledged offensive to address tactical objectives in this section of the front.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 27.02.24 

Personnel – almost 411,550  people (+850);

Tanks – 6,556 (+1);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,494 (+16);

Artillery systems – 10,009 (+16);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1000 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 686 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,065 (+28);

Aircraft – 340 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,729 (+22);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,912 (+2);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 147 towns and villages and 128 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 9 people are reported wounded in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • The Ukrainian Air Defense Forces destroyed 11 out of 13 kamikaze drones and two Kh-59 missiles out of four during the night of February 27th. Russia also launched one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile and one anti-radiation Kh-31P missile.
  • During an investigation into the aftermath of the previous day’s Russian shelling of Khotyn village of Sumy Oblast, Russian invaders launched another attack. As a result of the second enemy shelling, two policemen were killed, and six others are in the hospital.
  • As of today, at least 208 Ukrainian citizens are held in detention facilities in Crimea due to politically motivated and/or religious criminal persecution by the Russian Federation, with 125 of them being representatives of the indigenous Crimean Tatar people. At least 36 political prisoners are in urgent need of medical assistance.
  • The Russian occupation authorities claim that they have already distributed over 2 million Russian passports in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. As stated by Chief Oleg Agarkov of the Rostov Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the issuance of documents is among the top priorities.
  • According to a survey conducted by the Vilnius office of the International Organization for Migration (IOM Lithuania) in 2023, 75% of Ukrainian refugees currently residing in Lithuania express their intention to return to their homeland when conditions are deemed safe. Approximately 17% remain undecided.

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