Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 29.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled2 enemy attacks in the area of Synkivka and Tabaivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 12 Russian attacks in the area of Terny, Yampolivka and Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 9 attacks in the areas of Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued holding back the enemy in the area of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Urozhaine, where the enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 38 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 enemy attack in the area east of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions and repelled 4 enemy assaults.

General conclusion:

  • For the Ukrainian Defense Forces, retaining control of Orlivka is of paramount tactical importance. Surrendering it would provide the enemy with a highly advantageous foothold in the Avdiivka Coking Plant area to develop their advance in the western direction.
  • To develop the offensive, the enemy will have to overcome water obstacles on the Berdychi-Semenivka-Umanske line, which would require the deployment of pontoon crossings.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 99 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, “Khortytsia” OSG units have regained control over Tabaivka. Positional battles have been ongoing near Synkivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, positional battles have been ongoing near Terny, Yampolivka, Bilohorivka and Serebryansk Forest.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the offensive potential of the 98th Airborne Division and the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade has been exhausted, and losses prevent the enemy from advancing further. “Khortytsia” OSG units are clearing the eastern outskirts of Ivanivske. The 46th Separate Assault Battalion has seized two enemy positions in Mayorske and at the Height 190.
  • Positional battles have been ongoing near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Pivdenne, and New York.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, units of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade have liberated Stepove and are consolidating their positions in the village. They have conducted several successful attacks towards Berdychi and Orlivka.  In coordination with the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, they have also launched operations in the area of Tonenke. This concerted effort has resulted in the stabilization of the defensive line along the Tonenke-Orlivka-Berdychi line.
  • Russian forces have advanced southeast of Orlivka, near the windbreaks south of Stepove, and reached the southeastern outskirts of Orlivka. Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske..
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, units of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade have liberated Krasnohorivka, while the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade maintains control over Novomykhailivka, inflicting maximum losses on the enemy even before they reach the village. “Tavria” OSG units have regained control over Pobieda village.
  • Units of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army, supported by armored vehicles, advanced to the southern outskirts of Krasnohorivka. However, their advance was stopped by the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade.
  • Positional battles persisted in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda.
  • Berdyansk direction: the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment, which had previously made several concentrated attempts to significantly advance between Pryiutne and Staromayorske in the northern direction, sought to break through to Staromayorske from the west. The 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division made some progress in the direction of Stepanivka – Chervone.
  • South of the village, the adversary deployed the 1461st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops of the 36th Army within the defensive sector of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army. In conjunction with the 127th Motorized Rifle Division they are tasked to dislodge the “Tavria” OSG units from Zavitne Bazhannia and Staromayorske through counterattacks from the south and west. So far, the enemy has not achieved the desired result. At the Zavitne Bazhannia – Staromayorske direction, at least three Special Purpose Groups of the enemy’s 14th Separate SOF Brigade, specializing in the use of barrage projectiles such as “Lancet” and FPV drones, have been observed operating.
  • Orikhiv direction: after a series of attacks, the enemy managed to significantly push back the “Tavria” OSG forward units from the first position of its main defense line between Novoprokopivka and Verbove and reach the western outskirts of Robotyne. The enemy has halted, regrouping its tactical groups to continue the offensive to restore its position at its forward edge as of June 2023.
  • A combined tactical airborne group of the enemy, consisting of the 247th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division and the 104th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 76th Airborne Assault Division is operating west of Verbove.
  • Advanced units of the 70th and 71st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army are attacking south and west of Robotyne with forces of up to 2 battalions.
  • The “Tavria” OSG continues to hold positions northwest of Verbove with a width of up to 1.5 km along the front.
  • Kherson direction: an attempt by several Russian assault groups of the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division to dislodge the “Odesa” OSG advanced units from their positions in Krynky ended unsuccessfully. In addition to the foothold near Krynky, “Odesa” OSG has tactical footholds north of Pidstepne, towards Poyma, Dachi, and west of Oleshky. A number of unnamed islands in the delta of the Dnipro River are also under the control of the “Odesa” OSG.
  • Almost the entire 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian 18th Army is operating between Kozachi Laheri and Korsunka, along with the main forces of the 104th Airborne Assault Division and at least two separate brigades, the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet.
  • In the area of Tendrivska Split, the 73rd Special Operations Center lost a special-purpose group consisting of six fighters while the boat was departing from the shore after completing a combat mission.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade has entered the operational zone of the 5th Army, arriving from the Bakhmut direction. The 2nd Motorized Rifle Battalion of this brigade is currently in the process of relocating to the training ground in Novopetrivka near Berdyansk. From the personnel of this battalion, two assault “Storm” companies are planned to be formed. Subsequently, these companies will be deployed into battle within the zone of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, with the objective of breaking through either to Staromayorske or Zavitne Bazhannia.
  • In the area of Krynky, combat operations are being conducted by 2 motorized rifle regiments, 2 tank battalions of the 17th Tank Regiment, 2 divisions of the 81st Artillery Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 2 airborne assault regiments of the 104th Airborne Assault Division, and the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, the 35th and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army, and the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army will soon attempt to break through as far westward as possible on a wide front between Vodyane and Orlivka, leading to battles for Orlivka and Tonenke.
  • The enemy’s aspiration to advance to the Chasiv Yar area and the Novoselivka Persha-Novopokrovske line indicates its intention to initiate battles for the control of Toretsk.
  • After the capture of Pobeda by the 255th and 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the enemy’s 20th Motorized Rifle Division, the advance towards Oleksandrivka-Novomykhailivka, and the advance of the 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet to the eastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka, it is evident that the enemy will soon attempt to advance south of this village towards Vodyane and complete the capture of Novomykhailivka.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, the adversary maintains air superiority, posing a challenge for the “Tavria” OSG forces, which exhibit in this area the least robust air defense capabilities across the entire front. As a result, anticipations include enemy efforts to break through from the Kostiantynivka – Novomykhailivka area into the flank and rear of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Defense Forces near Vuhledar. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.
  • The enemy is attempting to execute a deep encirclement of the left flank of the “Tavriya” OSG, which is defending in the Kurakhove-Vuhledar salient.
  • If the “Tavriya” OSG holds the Orlivka-Tonenke line, the enemy’s tactical group, advancing in the directions of Vodyane-Netaylove and Pisky-Pervomaiske, risks falling into an operational trap.
  • The 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian 5th Army significantly intensified combat operations west of Staromayorske, indicating a potential increase in enemy offensive activity on the Berdyansk direction.
  • In the near future, an escalation of efforts from the 58th Combined Arms Army can be expected, with the deployment of the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade northwest of Robotyne to bypass the “Tavria” OSG defensive node from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.02.24 

Personnel – almost 413,760  people (+1150);

Tanks – 6,593 (+23);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,552 (+44);

Artillery systems – 10,070 (+41);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1000 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 690 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,152 (+40);

Aircraft – 342 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,768 (+15);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,912 (0);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 72 towns and villages and 99 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 10 people were reported killed and 16 were reported injured in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Children constitute 6% of the overall count of injured and deceased civilians in Ukraine, as of December 2023, totaling 1,822 individuals. The highest number of affected children is reported in eastern Ukraine. According to the results of the “Future Index” study conducted by the Olena Zelenska Foundation, 60% of children in Ukraine do not feel safe.
  • Two more girls and three boys have been successfully evacuated from the temporarily occupied territories, including one orphaned child. The ages of the children range from 4 to 16 years old.
  • Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, more than 270 civilians have been killed due to explosions on mines and other explosive objects, said Serhiy Reva, the head of the humanitarian demining department of the State Emergency Service (SES). Among them are 14 children. Over 600 civilians have been injured. Potentially mined areas in Ukraine cover an area of ​​156,000 square kilometers.
  • During the day on February 29, Russian forces dropped an explosive from a drone onto the courtyard of a residential building in Beryslav, hitting a 91-year-old woman and a 58-year-old man.
  • From September 1, 2022, to February 16, 2024, the Secretariat of the Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner, Dmytro Lubinets, received 1,808 appeals related to civilians deprived of liberty due to armed Russian aggression against Ukraine, as well as those who disappeared under special circumstances.
  • The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has decided to invoke the so-called Moscow Mechanism concerning the arbitrary detention of Ukrainian civilians by representatives of the Russian army and the occupation administration in the occupied territories. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba noted that this marks the first application of any international mechanism addressing this issue. He emphasized that Russia, during this conflict, has taken thousands of Ukrainian civilians hostage in the occupied territories, and he has long urged the OSCE, the UN, and other organizations to respond to this situation.

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