Russia’s war on Ukraine. 01.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled2 enemy attacks in the areas of Petropavlivka and Tabaivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 Russian attacks in the area of Terny, Yampolivka and Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 2 attacks in the areas of Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued holding back the enemy  in the area of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka, and Urozhaine where the enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 30 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 enemy attack in the area east of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions and repelled 4 enemy assaults.

General conclusion:

• On the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, Russian troops have been conducting between 10 to 15 glide bomb strikes per day over the past several months.
• The Russian forces usually launch their attacks in waves, employing groups ranging from one to one and a half infantry companies, and occasionally even up to a battalion tactical group (BTG), although they still significantly constrain the number of armored vehicles used.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 83 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles persisted in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Tabaivka.
• Russian forces have begun employing light vehicles to transport personnel on the Kupyansk direction, aiming to navigate through marshy terrain and evade attacks from the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ UAVs.
• On the Lyman direction, positional battles persisted near Terny, Yampolivka, and Bilohorivka. Russian forces are transferring artillery and reserves to the Terny area and consistently launching assaults with the support of aviation and artillery.
• On the Bakhmut direction, fighting continues in Bohdanivka and Ivanivka. Positional battles persisted near Berestove, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Pivdenne, and New York.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced into the fields south and southwest of Stepove, northwest of Lastochkyne, and in the vicinity of Nevelske. Positional battles persisted near Novobakhmutivka and Pervomaiske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda.
• Berdyansk direction: positional battles persisted near Pryiutne and Urozhaine.
• Orikhiv direction: Russian forces seized several positions near Robotyne. Positional battles continued near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
• Kherson direction: positional battles continued near Krynky and in the area of dachas near the Antonivskyi Bridge.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship.
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 15th and 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army are advancing near Berdychi; the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps is advancing near Nevelske.

Escalation indicators:

• The 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian 5th Army has notably heightened the intensity of combat operations to the west of Staromayorske. Consequently, one can anticipate an intensified enemy advance on the Berdyansk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, the 35th and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army, and the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army will soon attempt to break through as far westward as possible on a wide front between Vodyane and Orlivka, leading to battles for Orlivka and Tonenke.
• The enemy’s aspiration to advance to the Chasiv Yar area and the Novoselivka Persha-Novopokrovske line indicates its intention to initiate battles for the control of Toretsk.
• If the “Tavriya” OSG holds the Orlivka-Tonenke line, the enemy’s tactical group, advancing in the directions of Vodyane-Netaylove and Pisky-Pervomaiske, risks falling into an operational trap.
• After the capture of Pobeda by the 255th and 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the enemy’s 20th Motorized Rifle Division, the advance towards Oleksandrivka-Novomykhailivka, and the advance of the 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet to the eastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka, it is evident that the enemy will soon attempt to advance south of this village towards Vodyane and complete the capture of Novomykhailivka.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, the adversary maintains air superiority, posing a challenge for the “Tavria” OSG forces, which exhibit in this area the least robust air defense capabilities across the entire front. As a result, anticipations include enemy efforts to break through from the Kostiantynivka – Novomykhailivka area into the flank and rear of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Defense Forces near Vuhledar. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.
• The enemy is attempting to execute a deep encirclement of the left flank of the “Tavriya” OSG, which is defending in the Kurakhove-Vuhledar salient.
• In the near future, an escalation of efforts from the 58th Combined Arms Army can be expected, with the deployment of the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade northwest of Robotyne to bypass the “Tavria” OSG defensive node from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.03.24 

Personnel – almost 414,680  people (+920);

Tanks – 6,610 (+17);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,582 (+30);

Artillery systems – 10,106 (+36);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1000 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 691 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,206 (+54);

Aircraft – 345 (+3);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,794 (+26);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,912 (0);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 119 towns and villages and 144 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. One person is reported wounded in Sumy Oblast, one wounded and one killed in Zaporizhzhya Oblast, one person was injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, four in Kharkiv Oblast, 3 in Donetsk Oblast and 2 in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed all four enemy Shahed kamikaze drones launched by Russia at Ukraine on the night of Friday, March 1st.
• In Donetsk Oblast, the police team known as the “White Angels” evacuated a family of six, including two children, from the shelled city of Toretsk, located just 300 meters from the front line. However, there are still 17 children remaining in the city.
• In February, Russian forces shelled civilian areas in the Kherson community nearly five hundred times, resulting in the deaths of 7 people and injuries to 26 others.
• As of February 29, 2024, in the temporarily occupied Crimea, Russian occupation administrations initiated 699 investigations related to “discrediting the Russian Armed Forces.” Among these, administrative fines were imposed in 612 cases.

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