Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 02.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled14 enemy attacks in the areas of Terny, Yampolivka, Rozdolivka and Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 8 attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 24 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued holding back the enemy in the area of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka, and Urozhaine, where the enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 29 times.

General conclusion:

  • The potential capture of Chasiv Yar by Russian Armed Forces would open pathways for the enemy’s advancement towards Kostiantynivka. The main operational goal of the enemy’s command in Donetsk Oblast remains the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration.
  • The command of the enemy’s “Center” operational grouping remains committed to a continuous offensive, attempting to develop its success on the Avdiivka direction. However, the pace of their troop advancement has significantly decelerated, and they have not reached the Ocheretyne-Umanske line.
  • The command of the 31st Air Defense Division of the enemy has started to extensively use decoys and false positions to mislead the reconnaissance capabilities of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Specifically, they are masking the positions of the 12th anti-aircraft missile regiment in this manner. There are documented attempts by the enemy to use false sources of electromagnetic radiation and radio network masking.
  • An A-50 Airborne Early Warning aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, undergoing modernization to the A-50U level (or A-100 level), conducted a test flight from the Taganrog airbase over the northern part of the Caspian Sea.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 82 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles persisted near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Tabaivka.
  • Russian forces damaged stationary bridges over the Oskil River, but the Defense Forces do not encounter serious difficulties in securing the grouping on the eastern bank of the Oskil River.
  • On the Lyman direction, positional battles persisted near Terni, Yampolivka, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles persisted in the areas of Berestove, Rozdolivka, Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Pivdenne, and New York.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG forces have taken well-prepared defensive positions near Chasiv Yar.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (SMRBr) of the 1st Army Corps advanced to the Zoriansk reservoir south of Orlivka, taking control of the southern part of Orlivka along the Paukovy brothers street. The 15th SMRBr of the 2nd Army advanced to the eastern outskirts of Berdychi. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Semenivka, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, the 39th SMRBr of the 68th Army Corps made slight progress in southern Novomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced to the east of Pobieda. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles occurred near Novodonetske, Zolota Nyva, Urozhaine, Marfopol, Shevchenko, and Malynivka.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles persisted near Robotyne. The destruction within Robotyne prevents the enemy from consolidating, forcing Russian forces to maneuver constantly within the gray zone.
  • On the Kherson direction, positional battles occurred near Krynky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, the enemy’s naval group is on combat duty, comprising: Black Sea: 1 ship; Azov Sea: 1 ship; Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles with a total salvo of 8 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier with a total salvo of 8 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 1196th, 1197th, and 1199th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops were transferred under command of the enemy’s 49th Combined Arms Army. These regiments were withdrawn from the composition of the tactical group “Enerhodar.”
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy’s command returned the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from reserve and introduced it into the operation in the direction of Lastochkyne-Tonenke.
  • The enemy began utilizing the capabilities of the 943rd Mobilization Deployment Support Center of the 18th Army (Novoozerne, Autonomous Republic of Crimea).

Escalation indicators:

  • The President of the Russian Federation signed the annual decree on the conscription of reservists in 2024.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • In the imminent future, the adversary’s command is expected to engage the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka. This regiment recently concentrated in the Horlivka area following its restoration a few days ago.
  • The enemy’s aspiration to advance to the Chasiv Yar area and the Novoselivka Persha-Novopokrovske line indicates its intention to initiate battles for the control of Toretsk.
  • If the “Tavriya” OSG holds the Orlivka-Tonenke line, the enemy’s tactical group, advancing in the directions of Vodyane-Netaylove and Pisky-Pervomaiske, risks falling into an operational trap.
  • In the near future, the enemy will attempt to complete the capture of Novomykhailivka and, to the south of Novomykhailivka, advance towards Vodyane.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy, operating from the Kostiantynivka-Novomykhailivka area,  will attempt to make a deep envelopment of the left flank of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the “Tavria” OSG and penetrate its rear. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.
  • The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.03.24 

Personnel – almost 415,640  people (+960);

Tanks – 6,624 (+14);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,611 (+29);

Artillery systems – 10,153 (+47);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,003 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 696 (+5);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,267 (+61);

Aircraft – 346 (+1);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,829 (+35);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,915 (+3);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 147 towns and villages and 126 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. One person is reported dead and two wounded in Kharkiv Oblast, 3 people were wounded in Donetsk Oblast and 2 in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night of March 2, the enemy launched at Ukraine three guided X-59/X-35 aviation missiles from the occupied territories of Kherson and Donetsk Oblasts and 17 Shahed UAVs. Air defense forces successfully intercepted and destroyed 14 UAVs and 0 missiles.
  • During the night, Russian forces launched three waves of strike UAV attacks on Odesa Oblast. A combat drone struck a high-rise building in Odesa, causing destruction. In the morning, two people were known to have died, and eight others, including a child and a pregnant woman, injured. During the day it was reported that a body of a 3 year old child was recovered from the rubble and 11 people were still being searched for. By 6 pm the death toll had risen to seven, with the bodies of a mother and a three-month-old baby found under the rubble.
  • Russian forces continue intensively attacking Zaporizhzhia Oblast. During the past day, the enemy forces delivered 306 strikes on six towns and villages in the region.
  • In the occupied Mariupol, a large “cleanup operation” is underway. Eleven police crews from St. Petersburg arrived in the city to reinforce the Rosgvardia unit, which has been placed under the command of the FSB, wrote Petro Andryushenko, an advisor to the legally elected mayor of Mariupol. According to him, representatives of enemy security forces are searching the city for “partisans and saboteurs” to ensure proper reporting on the eve of the forthcoming “presidential elections”.

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