Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 03.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, theenemymade 4 unsuccessful attacks near Tabaivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled8 enemy attacks in the areas of Terny and Yampolivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 15 attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued holding back the enemy in the area of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka, where the enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 25 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy conducted four unsuccessful attacks in the area of Robotyne and west of Novoprokopivka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to maintain their positions. The enemy attempted an unsuccessful assault in the vicinity of Krynky.

General conclusion:

  • Over the past 6 days, Russian forces have refrained from employing A-50 AWACS aircraft over the Azov Sea. Consequently, Su-34 and Su-35 strike aircraft are compelled to operate in closer proximity to the frontline. The enemy’s aircraft losses have prompted a temporary reduction in the overall intensity of aviation deployment within the Theater of Military Operations. However, the application of tactical aviation continues at a sustained level.
  • The presence of the 98th Airborne Division, 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade in the regions of Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, alongside the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army in the vicinity of Robotyne, suggests that the adversary has depleted its offensive capabilities in these sectors.
  • The adversary’s “Dnepr” operational grouping has the most powerful composition among all enemy formations within the Theater of Military Operations. Nevertheless, its “Center” operational grouping, having a similar composition, operates within a substantially more confined operational zone, leading to markedly higher operational densities.
  • Minefields to the west of Donetsk are impeding the enemy’s advance.
  • The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has commenced the construction of new quay infrastructure for the Caspian Flotilla of the Russian Navy and a military hospital in Makhachkala, Dagestan.
  • The enemy’s daily employment of precision-guided aerial munitions, primarily delivered by Su-34 bombers, averages between 60-65. On days of heightened operational demand, this figure escalates to 120-130.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 71 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles took place in the areas of Synkivka, Lake Lyman, Petropavlivka, and Tabaivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced east of Terny and south of Bilohorivka. Positional battles occurred near Yampolivka, Terny, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles took place in the areas of Rozdolivka, Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Pivdenne.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Combined Arms Army, using the aftermath of aviation strikes, advanced in the area of Tonenke. However, it was repelled by the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Positional battles took place in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Semenivka, Stepove, Tonenke, Vodyane, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske.
  • The adversary is utilizing Stepove as a launching point for the assault on Berdychi, yet a number of their assault units were repelled by the forces of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade. The units of the 25th Separate Airmobile Brigade held firm against the enemy’s pressure, which included aerial strikes with guided bombs. Furthermore, the counteroffensive conducted by the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade successfully dislodged the adversary from Orlivka.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces have completed the rotation of the brigade that has been in combat in Avdiivka for two years, transferring it to the rear for recovery.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, positional battles took place in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • A battalion from the composition of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces completed the clearance of Krasnohorivka from the enemy. Units of the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces secured the western outskirts of Pobieda and displaced the enemy to the eastern outskirts of the village. Units of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade displaced units of the 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet Black Sea Fleet from Novomykhailivka. It’s noteworthy that a significant portion of the personnel in the 155th Separate Marine Brigade comprises sailors from the crews of the Pacific Fleet ships, lacking adequate training for ground operations.
  • Berdyansk direction: Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Urozhaine. The enemy advanced near Marfopil and Hulyaipole.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Robotyne and Verbove.
  • On the Kherson direction, Russian forces recently achieved minor successes in Krynky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 4 cruise missile carriers with a total salvo of 12 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.
  • Repair work is ongoing at the facilities of the “Sevastopol Shipyard” for the diesel-electric submarine of Project 636.3 “Rostov-on-Don” (4th separate submarine brigade of the Black Sea Fleet) and the large landing ship of Project 775 “Minsk” (71st brigade of amphibious ships of the Baltic Fleet). Preparatory work for the dry dock repair has begun for the large landing ship of Project 775 “Olenegorskiy Gornyak” (121st brigade of amphibious ships of the Northern Fleet). The estimated completion time for the repair work is the end of 2025.
  • The small missile ship of Project 22800 “Amur,” planned to be included in the composition of the 41st brigade of missile boats of the Black Sea Fleet, demonstrated malfunctions during tests, including a faulty onboard radar system of the Pantsir-M anti-aircraft missile-gun system and numerous communication failures. As a result, the ship’s trials are deemed unsuccessful.
  • Considering the significant losses in the naval fleet, the command of the Black Sea Fleet is exploring the possibility of incorporating the large landing ship of Project 775 “Kostyantyn Olshansky,” captured by Russian forces in 2014, into the combat fleet. Restoration work on the ship has commenced.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • On the Avdiivka direction, the adversary’s “Center” operational grouping is conducting an offensive operation, consisting of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies, the main forces of the 8th Combined Arms Army (the 1st Army Corps in almost full composition, the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions), and the 90th Tank Division. The grouping includes 11 brigades, 28 regiments, 17 separate battalions, and 4 detachments. In reserve of the first echelon, the command holds 3 motorized rifle regiments of the territorial troops, 9 motorized rifle battalions, and 2 detachments. The “Center” operational group comprises 86,332 personnel, 354 tanks, 612 armored vehicles, 827 artillery pieces, 232 multiple rocket launcher systems, up to 10 ballistic missile launchers, and ranks second in power on the theater of military operations.
  • To the west of Avdiivka, the forces of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army are advancing: the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is near Nevelske, the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is near Tonenke, and between Tonenke and Orlivka is the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.
  • Near Hulyaipole, combat operations are being carried out by the 69th Separate Cover Brigade of the 35th Army, and in the area of Velyka Novosilka, the 30th Artillery Brigade of the 36th Army is engaged in combat.
  • Near Verbove, combat operations are conducted by the 247th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division.
  • A contingent of bombers, comprising 4 Su-34 aircraft from the 968th Mixed Aviation Regiment, previously stationed at Lipetsk Air Base (4th Center for Combat Application and Retraining of Flight Personnel), has been relocated to Maykop Air Base. This transfer aims to offset losses and execute aviation-bombing strikes on the Avdiivka and Mariupol directions.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy command’s delineation of the forces engaged in the operation on the Avdiivka direction (referred to as the Pokrovsk direction by the enemy) within the Theater of Military Operations, the deployment of corresponding command and control systems, combat support, and logistics, coupled with elevated operational densities, signify the enemy’s endeavor to consolidate its tactical gains into the operations success specifically in this direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • In the imminent future, the adversary’s command is expected to engage the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka. This regiment recently concentrated in the Horlivka area following its restoration a few days ago.
  • The enemy’s aspiration to advance to the Chasiv Yar area and the Novoselivka Persha-Novopokrovske line indicates its intention to initiate battles for the control of Toretsk.
  • If the “Tavriya” OSG holds the Orlivka-Tonenke line, the enemy’s tactical group, advancing in the directions of Vodyane-Netaylove and Pisky-Pervomaiske, risks falling into an operational trap.
  • The enemy’s attempt to extend its tactical gains near Avdiivka into the operational success compels the command of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” to implement a series of urgent measures to impede the adversary at least on the Ocheretyne–Umanske line.
  • In the near future, the enemy will attempt to complete the capture of Novomykhailivka and, to the south of Novomykhailivka, advance towards Vodyane.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy, operating from the Kostiantynivka-Novomykhailivka area,  will attempt to make a deep envelopment of the left flank of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the “Tavria” OSG and penetrate its rear. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.
  • The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.03.24 

Personnel – almost 416,800  people (+1,160);

Tanks – 6,640 (+16);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,639 (+28);

Artillery systems – 10,188 (+35);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,003 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 696 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,332 (+65);

Aircraft – 347 (+1);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,843 (+14);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,915 (0);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 65 towns and villages and 134 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the morning of March 3, over 24 hours after the Russian drone attack on Odesa, search and rescue teams recovered two additional bodies – of a woman and a baby – from the debris of the multi-story building. Later in the evening, the remains of a 10-year-old boy were located under the rubble, raising the death toll to eleven, including four children.
  • The Russian occupiers carried out a series of 9 airdrops of munitions containing chemical substances from UAVs, violating the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling, and Use of Chemical Weapons, as stated by Alexander Tarnavsky, the “Tavria” OSG Commander.
  • As a result of the Russian military strike on the center of the town of Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast on Sunday, 16 people were wounded, two of them critically, and at least 15 high-rise buildings were damaged. According to preliminary information, the Russian forces utilized a guided aerial bomb.
  • Demining units from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine have successfully neutralized 4,599 explosive devices and cleared more than 15 hectares of liberated territories during the past week.

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