Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 04.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Russian forces made11 attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Tabaivka, unsuccessfully trying to improve their tactical position. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 Russian attacks in the area of Bilohorivka, Terny, and Verkhnyokamianske. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy in the area of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka, where Russian forces attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 30 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy made 3 unsuccessful attacks in the area of Robotyne.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces have slightly reduced the intensity of their offensive actions and are consolidating their positions along the achieved lines on the Kupyansk direction.
  • On the Lyman direction, the Russian military command is in the process of regrouping and preparing assault groups, redeploying forces to the areas near Terny and Yampolivka.
  • The Russian Aerospace Forces have intensified airstrikes on Ukrainian positions east of Chasiv Yar.
  • The operational situation in Berdychi, Orlivka, and Tonenke is stabilizing, and the “Tavria” OSG troops are repelling Russian attacks in these villages. The enemy failed to capture Berdychi, Orlivka, and Tonenke, but has achieved some local successes on the Avdiivka direction.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces are effectively repelling Russian attacks west of Avdiivka, exploiting the vulnerabilities of the Russian army: the enemy’s motorized infantry units are deficient in anti-tank grenade launchers, and the Russian command persists in relying on inaccurate operational data that deviates from the actual state of Russian forces on the ground.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 78 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, “Khortytsia” OSG forces liberated Tabaivka. Russian forces advanced 200 meters on the northern outskirts of Synkivka.
  • Positional battles persisted near Synkivka and Tabaivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, positional battles persisted near Terny, Yampolivka, Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles persisted in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Pivdenne, and New York.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, positional battles persisted in the areas of Berdychi, Stepove, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: Russian forces successfully attacked near Staromayorske and Zolota Nyva.
  • Orikhiv direction: positional battles took place near Robotyne and west of Novoprokopivka. The “Tavriya” OSG conducts maneuver defense in Robotyne, remotely mining the territory.
  • Russian troops are advancing slowly near Verbove than near Robotyne.
  • Kherson direction: positional battles continued near Krynky and the Antonivskyi Bridge.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 Cruise Missile Carriers. The total salvo is 12 “Kalibr” cruise missiles

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Russian Airborne Forces is engaged in combat near Klishchiivka.
  • The 305th Artillery Brigade of the 5th Army is operating in the area of Novomykhailivka.
  • The 35th Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Protection Regiment of the 35th Army is engaged in combat operations near Dorozhnyanka
  • The 4th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the 76th Airborne Assault Division is engaged in combat in the area of Verbove – Robotyne.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy command’s segregation of forces engaged in the operation on the Avdiivka direction (referred to as the Pokrovsk direction by the enemy) within the Theater of Military Operations, the deployment of corresponding command and control systems, combat support, and logistics, coupled with elevated operational densities, signify the enemy’s endeavor to consolidate its tactical gains into the operations success specifically in this direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • In the imminent future, the adversary’s command is expected to engage the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka. This regiment recently concentrated in the Horlivka area following its restoration a few days ago.
  • The enemy’s aspiration to advance to the Chasiv Yar area and the Novoselivka Persha-Novopokrovske line indicates its intention to initiate battles for the control of Toretsk.
  • If the “Tavriya” OSG holds the Orlivka-Tonenke line, the enemy’s tactical group, advancing in the directions of Vodyane-Netaylove and Pisky-Pervomaiske, risks falling into an operational trap.
  • The enemy’s attempt to extend its tactical gains near Avdiivka into the operational success compels the command of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavriya” to implement a series of urgent measures to impede the adversary at least on the Ocheretyne–Umanske line.
  • In the near future, the enemy will attempt to complete the capture of Novomykhailivka and, to the south of Novomykhailivka, advance towards Vodyane.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy, operating from the Kostiantynivka-Novomykhailivka area,  will attempt to make a deep envelopment of the left flank of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the “Tavria” OSG and penetrate its rear. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.
  • The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.03.24 

Personnel – almost 417,950  people (+1150);

Tanks – 6,648 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,660 (+21);

Artillery systems – 10,210 (+22);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,004 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 698 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,374 (+42);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,845 (+2);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,916 (+1);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 110 towns and villages and 110 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • In the aftermath of the Russian assault in the Kramatorsk district of Donetsk Oblast, during the firefighting operation, rescuers came under a repeat enemy attack. Two of them were killed, while three others were injured. The attack was carried out using a UAV.
  • 274 cases of sexual violence during the war are being investigated in Ukraine. Ukrainian law enforcement authorities have officially charged 40 Russian military personnel of committing crimes involving sexual violence.
  • A pilot project for interim reparations for individuals affected by conflict-related sexual violence has been initiated in Ukraine. During the trial phase, which runs from March 1st to March 31st, compensation payments will be provided to 40 affected individuals.
  • According to the Public Affairs Office of the Support Forces Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia has carried out 1,068 chemical attacks in Ukraine since the onset of the large-scale war, with 250 attacks recorded in February 2024.
  • About 3% of healthcare workers who worked in the Medical Guarantees Program left the country due to the large-scale Russian invasion, stated the Minister of Healthcare, Viktor Lyashko. However, a significant number of individuals who received medical assistance from these workers have also left the country. As a result, there is currently no shortage of staff in the healthcare sector, as assured by the Minister. Meanwhile, the medical system, along with various other sectors, has been placed on a wartime footing, leading to the mobilization of a portion of the medical personnel.
  • According to Petro Kotin, the acting head of the board of directors, there are no longer any “Energoatom” staff members at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Earlier this year, there were 360 company employees at the plant, but they have since been denied access. “Energoatom” reports that 60% of shift supervisors (40 individuals) have left the temporarily occupied territory, and Ukraine has terminated employment contracts with 12% (8 individuals). Moreover, 14% (9 individuals) of employees had their access blocked by the Russian occupiers and are unable to return to work due to their refusal to sign new contracts, leaving an equal number of positions vacant. Kotin emphasized that, although the plant is currently staffed by Russians, they are incapable of reliably operating it.
  • Activists of the “Yellow Ribbon” resistance movement, active in the occupied Ukrainian territories, report that due to low turnout in the illegal Russian presidential elections, the Russian occupation authorities have initiated the recruitment of mobilized Russian soldiers. Occupiers are disguising themselves in civilian clothing and voting at polling stations while pretending to be locals. Instances of this have been documented in the villages of the Kakhovka district, near Oleshky, Ivanivtsi, and Nyzhni Sirohozy.

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