Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 05.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Russian military made7 attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Tabaivka, trying to improve its tactical position. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks in the area of Terny and Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 6 Russian attacks in the areas of Andriivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 28 enemy attacks in the area of Novoselivka, Berdychi, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy  in the area of Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, Prechystivka and Urozhaine where invaders attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 22 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy made 1 attack in the area of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions. Despite significant losses, the enemy persists in attempts to dislodge them from their positions. Over the past day, the adversary carried out 2 unsuccessful assault operations.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces maintain the initiative on the Lyman direction but struggle to translate minor tactical successes into operational gains.
  • Russian troops increasingly employ X-31p anti-radiation missiles in strikes to search for air defense radars of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and detect air defense vulnerabilities along the missile and strike UAV routes.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 72 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, combat operations continued near Synkivka and Tabaivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, hostilities continued near Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske. Russian forces have advanced near Yampolivka and Terny.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian troops have moved towards the center of Ivanivske, engaging in combat on its western outskirts. They aim to disrupt the logistical route of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which approaches Ivanivske from the north. Ongoing battles are reported near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, New York, and Novoselivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced along a strip of up to 900 meters wide and 450 meters deep south of Orlivka near the Orlivka-Tonenke road. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, units of the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet have advanced to the center of Novomykhailivka. “Tavria” OSG troops hold positions only on the western outskirts of Novomykhailivka. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Pobieda.
  • Berdyansk direction: positional battles persisted in the area of Vodyane, near Prechystivka, and Urozhaine.
  • Orikhiv direction: positional battles continued near Robotyne and Verbove.
  • Kherson direction: Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Krynky.`
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 Cruise Missile Carriers. The total salvo is 12 “Kalibr” cruise missiles

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Russian forces attempt to transfer reserves to the area near Bohdanivka.
  • The 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army is engaged in combat operations near Berdychi.
  • The 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Army is operating on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy command’s segregation of forces engaged in the operation on the Avdiivka direction (referred to as the Pokrovsk direction by the enemy) within the Theater of Military Operations, the deployment of corresponding command and control systems, combat support, and logistics, coupled with elevated operational densities, signify the enemy’s endeavor to consolidate its tactical gains into the operations success specifically in this direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • In the imminent future, the adversary’s command is expected to engage the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka. This regiment recently concentrated in the Horlivka area following its restoration a few days ago.
  • The enemy’s aspiration to advance to the Chasiv Yar area and the Novoselivka Persha-Novopokrovske line indicates its intention to initiate battles for the control of Toretsk.
  • If the “Tavriya” OSG holds the Orlivka-Tonenke line, the enemy’s tactical group, advancing in the directions of Vodyane-Netaylove and Pisky-Pervomaiske, risks falling into an operational trap.
  • The enemy’s attempt to extend its tactical gains near Avdiivka into the operational success compels the command of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavriya” to implement a series of urgent measures to impede the adversary at least on the Ocheretyne–Umanske line.
  • In the near future, the enemy will attempt to complete the capture of Novomykhailivka and, to the south of Novomykhailivka, advance towards Vodyane.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy, operating from the Kostiantynivka-Novomykhailivka area,  will attempt to make a deep envelopment of the left flank of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the “Tavria” OSG and penetrate its rear. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.
  • The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.03.24 

Personnel – almost 419,020  people (+1070);

Tanks – 6,657 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,688 (+28);

Artillery systems – 10,258 (+48);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,007 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 700 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,423 (+49);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,863 (+18);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,917 (+1);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 159 towns and villages and 94 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • The Sumy Oblast police reported that Russian military forces employed prohibited tactics by remotely mining civilian territory with spherical shrapnel bombs (SHOAB-0.5) in the Shostka district in the Sumy Oblast. The bombs look like silver balls and may attract children, the police warns.
  • Russian forces attack populated areas on the right bank in Kherson Oblast with drones, dropping explosive ordnance on civilian, police, and rescue vehicles, as well as targeting humanitarian aid distribution sites, reported Natalia Humeniuk, head of the Joint Press Center of the Operational Command “South.”
  • The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has documented 104 cases of abductions and 55 cases of torture of pro-Ukrainian activists by the Russian occupation authorities in Crimea since 2014. The Mission emphasized that Russia illegally imposed its “citizenship,” “laws,” and “institutions” on the population of Crimea in all spheres of life, suppressing opposition and dissent.
  • Due to Russia’s repressive policies, just 0.1% of students in Crimea receive education in Ukrainian. Furthermore, the invaders have shuttered nearly 80% of previously registered Ukrainian media outlets. The occupying regime in Crimea has stifled freedom of conscience, cultural expression, and minority identity, while also severely limiting religious freedoms. Throughout the temporary occupation, the number of registered religious organizations in Crimea has dwindled by half.
  • From February 24, 2022, to February 25, 2024, Russia destroyed or damaged 945 cultural heritage sites in Ukraine, the Culture and Information Policy Ministry of Ukraine reported. As noted by the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy, cultural heritage sites were damaged or destroyed in 17 regions. The most affected were the Kharkiv (235), Donetsk (128), Odesa (119), and Kherson (116) Oblasts.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent