Russia’s war on Ukraine. 06.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 Russian attacks in the area of Verkhnyokamianske and Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 2 Russian attacks in the areas of Ivanivske and Bila Hora.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 23 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Nevelske, Semenivka, and Orlivka. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued holding back the enemy in the area of Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Prechystivka, and Krasnohorivka, where the enemy attempted to break the Ukrainian defense 39 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy carried out 5 attacks in the areas of Hulyaipole, Malynivka, and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions. Over the past day, the adversary carried out 3 unsuccessful assault operations.

General conclusion:

• The adversary continues to concentrate efforts west and northwest of Bakhmut in the general direction of Chasiv Yar.
• Russian forces conduct over 100 airstrikes on Ukrainian positions near Avdiivka.
• Ukrainian field fortifications in the Avdiivka sector do not consist of a single continuous rampart or a single line of trenches; the engineering equipment of the positions is carried out using the natural terrain, especially considering water bodies.
• The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” operational grouping aims to achieve at least two key objectives: establishing favorable conditions for eastward and southward progression towards Siversk, supporting the actions of the “Zapad (West)” grouping, and endeavoring to breach as far westward along the Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut road, thereby shaping the northern flank of the Toretsk bulge.
• The 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the Russian 8th Army, along with the 1st Army Corps, currently involved in active combat on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, contribute to the fulfillment of operational objectives within the adversary’s “Center” operational grouping.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 86 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, combat actions continued near Synkivka and Tabaivka.
• On the Lyman direction, positional battles took place near Terny, Yampolivka, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles persisted in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Andriivka, Klishchiivka, Bila Hora, Pivnichne, and Shumy. The Russian 98th Airborne Division is concentrating efforts on capturing Ivanivske, where units of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade have consolidated in the northern and eastern parts of the village. The 299th and 331^st Airborne Regiments of the 98th Airborne Division are unsuccessfully attempting to advance north and south of Bohdanivka. The Russian Air Force is striking Ukrainian positions on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar with FAB-500 gliding bombs and unguided missiles S-8 and S-13.
• Forward enemy units launched attacks in the directions of Bohdanivka – Kalynivka and Ivanivske – Stupochky. To support the actions of its assault tactical groups, the enemy attempts to displace the advanced units of the “Khortytsia” OSG units from the Klishchiivka – Andriivka line to the railway line south of Bakhmut.
• The enemy forces of the 2nd Army Corps (AC) and the 106th Airborne Division intensified their activity in the direction of Bilohorivka (upper), Verkhnyokamianske, and Vyimka: the 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd AC unsuccessfully tried to advance east of Bilohorivka, and the 127th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd AC – north of the Zolotarivka – Lysychansk road.
• Along the Vesele – Rozdolivka and Bilohorivka (lower) – Vyimka directions, the adversary has deployed units from the 51st and 119th Airborne Regiments of the 106th Airborne Division, backed by the periodic attacks of the 127th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the north-western direction.
• The forces of the 3rd AC are trying to displace the units of the Ukrainian OSG “Khortytsia” from the railway and reach the Siversky Donets – Donbas Canal. The 1194th Motorized Support Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops is advancing southeast of Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, combat actions were ongoing near Novoselivka, Semenivka, Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. Russian forces are attempting to quickly capture Orlivka, Tonenke, and Berdychi, while Ukrainian forces strive to impede the enemy’s advance and strengthen defensive positions between Ocheretyne and Tonenke.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced in the fields south of Novomykhailivka. The 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet advanced from the east towards Novomykhailivka, and units of the 68th Army Corps seized the dairy farm north of the village. Russian forces made progress in the center of Heorhiivka.
• Positional battles persisted in the areas of Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane.
• Berdyansk direction: Positional battles occurred near Urozhaine, Prechystivka, Malynivka, and Ulyanivka. Units of the 11th Army of the Russian Aerospace Forces and Air Defense carried out airstrikes on Ukrainian forces in the Vremivka Bulge.
• On the Orikhiv direction, battles were ongoing around Robotyne, particularly on the eastern and western outskirts of the village. The “Tavria” OSG deployed reserves in the area of Robotyne and conducted several successful counterattacks. Russian forces are facing a shortage of Electronic Warfare means, counter-battery capabilities, and have limited opportunities to use UAVs near Robotyne.
• On the Kherson direction, Russian forces conducted strikes against small Ukrainian formations in the areas of dachas near the Antonivskyi Bridge. OSG “Odesa” forces used UAVs to target a substation in the occupied Kakhovka and AASM Hammer on Russian positions in Kozachi Lagery.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 Cruise Missile Carrier. The total salvo is 4 “Kalibr” cruise missiles

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• On the Bakhmut direction, the main forces of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” operational grouping are in action. This includes the 3rd Army Corps, the airborne assault forces grouping (8th and 106th Airborne Divisions, 11th and 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigades), and the “Volunteer Assault Corps.” Additionally, there is partial involvement of forces from the 2nd Army Corps, the main elements of which are currently committed to combat operations to the north, specifically on the Siversky direction.
• In the Berdychi area, units of the 24th Separate SOF Brigade and the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army are deployed.
• On the Hulyaipole direction, units of the 69th Separate Cover Brigade of the 35th Army are active. Reconnaissance units of the 5th Army are operating near Staromayorske.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy command’s segregation of forces engaged in the operation on the Avdiivka direction (referred to as the Pokrovsk direction by the enemy) within the Theater of Military Operations, the deployment of corresponding command and control systems, combat support, and logistics, coupled with elevated operational densities, signify the enemy’s endeavor to consolidate its tactical gains into the operations success specifically in this direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The command of the 2nd Army Corps is intensifying the offensive towards Siversk from the direction of Bakhmut.
• In the imminent future, the adversary’s command is expected to engage the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
• In the near future, the enemy command will attempt to breach the defense of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG on the Pokrovsk direction. They will advance in the area of Kostiantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Toretsk with the aim of capturing Toretsk.
• If the “Tavriya” OSG holds the Orlivka-Tonenke line, the enemy’s tactical group, advancing in the directions of Vodyane-Netaylove and Pisky-Pervomaiske, risks falling into an operational trap.
• The enemy’s attempt to extend its tactical gains near Avdiivka into the operational success compels the command of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavriya” to implement a series of urgent measures to impede the adversary at least on the Ocheretyne–Umanske line.
• The enemy will attempt to capture Novomykhailivka and, south of it, advance towards Vodyane. They will attempt to make a deep envelopment of the left flank of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the “Tavria” OSG and penetrate its rear. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.
• The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.03.24 

Personnel – almost 420,270  people (+1,250);

Tanks – 6,678 (+21);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,728 (+40);

Artillery systems – 10,308 (+50);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,008 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 701 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,479 (+56);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,921 (+58);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,918 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (+1).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 13 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 116 towns and villages and 116 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 1 person was reported dead in Kharkiv Oblast, one dead and one injured in Donetsk Oblast, and 3 people were injured in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• At around 1 a.m. on March 6, 2024, Russian forces launched an assault on civilian infrastructure in the city of Sumy, utilizing three “Shahed” UAVs. The attack inflicted injuries on seven civilians, including a 10-year-old boy. Additionally, a hospital sustained damage, forcing it to cease admitting patients.
• On the morning of March 6th, the Russian Armed Forces launched an assault on Odesa. Notably, an explosion took place during a meeting between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and President Volodymyr Zelensky at the port in Odesa.
• The enemy attack on the port infrastructure of Odesa resulted in 5 casualties, as reported by Navy spokesperson Captain 3rd Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk. An air raid alert was sounded in Odessa Oblast at 10:41, followed by a powerful explosion at 10:45.
• In Khmelnytskyi Oblast, a fire broke out at the Oblenergo substations due to an attack by Russian “Shahed” drones, resulting in the disconnection of aerial power transmission lines. Over 14,000 consumers in 30 towns and villages were left without power. As of 8:00 a.m., the fire had been extinguished, but over 2,500 customers remained without electricity.
• In an attempt to erase Ukrainian historical memory, Russian occupation authorities are destroying the graves of Ukrainian soldiers who died in the Anti-Terrorist Operation and were buried in cemeteries in Sieverodonetsk and Starobilsk districts. Simultaneously, they are implementing initiatives such as introducing “school desks of special military operation heroes” in the occupied territories, installing memorial plaques, and conducting “lessons of courage” in schools.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent