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Russia’s war on Ukraine. 07.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Tabaivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 11 Russian attacks in the area of Bilohorivka, Terny, and Spirne. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 11 Russian attacks in the areas of Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the area of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, where the enemy attempted to break the Ukrainian defense 20 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy carried out 16 attacks in the areas of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions. Over the past day, the adversary carried out 1 unsuccessful assault operation.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces are conducting assaults on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions using armored vehicles but refraining from using tanks.
  • The Ukrainian OSG “Khortytsia” units, holding Ivanivske, have been supplied with additional artillery ammunition resources.
  • The enemy has significantly reduced the intensity of combat operations on the Avdiivka direction.
  • The defense stability of Orlivka is maintained by the control of Tonenke.
  • The command of the enemy’s “Center” and “South” operational groupings is exerting substantial efforts to prevent a decrease in the pace of their advance on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.
  • Without occupying Krasnohorivka, the attacks by the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the Russian 8th Army on Heorhiivka makes sense only in one case – if the enemy intends to deeper outflank the Tavria forces, which are currently fighting in the area of Novomykhailivka, from the north;
  • Due to bomber losses, the adversary’s aviation has scaled back the frequency of glide bomb strikes from 100 per day to 50-60.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 92 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, enemy infantry advanced to the northern outskirts of Synkivka. Positional battles persisted near Tabaivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, positional battles occurred near Yampolivka, Terny, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the 98th Airborne Division and the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the enemy changed the direction of their advance, concentrating efforts in the Ivanivske area. Both units have nearly exhausted their offensive potential but continue unsuccessful attacks due to constant reinforcements. The enemy holds positions along the eastern outskirts of the village and attempts to advance towards the center.
  • Units of the Ukrainian OSG “Khortytsia” repelled attacks from the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army in the area between Bakhmut and Klishchiivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully defends Berdychi, repelling the attacks from the enemy’s 15th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades. The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade repelled an enemy assault in the area of Orlivka, where the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade assumed a defensive position. The enemy advances along the lakes to the south of Orlivka and infiltrated to the southwest of the Zoryansky pond, south of the village. The 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade is holding its ground in Tonenke, improving its tactical position by repelling an attack from the enemy’s 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, supported by the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army from the Lastochkyne – Tonenke direction. Nevertheless, the enemy has consolidated in the southeast part of Tonenke. The 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army attacked Tonenke from the south, but they did not achieve success.
  • The 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army are trying to break through to Pervomaiske from the direction of Vodyane and Pesky, but they have not made significant progress yet. The goal of these actions is to bypass the right flank of the Ukrainian OSG  “Tavria” in the area of Orlivka – Tonenke along the Pervomaiske – Netaylove direction. The 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps unsuccessfully attacked from the direction of Lozove and is attempting to break through to Nevelske from the east without success.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” steadfastly holds its positions in the area of Pobieda, repelling enemy attacks from the east and north of the village.
  • The 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade maintains its positions in Novomykhailivka, repelling several intense assaults by the 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet, whose units have consolidated on the eastern outskirts of the village and the local cemetery. The enemy is launching strikes on Kostiantynivka.
  • The 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, reinforced by units of the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army, concentrates efforts on breaking through towards Heorhiivka. The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps actively advancing in the direction of Slavne – Novomykhailivka and Solodke – Vodyane. It has made some progress but has not managed to completely encircle Novomykhailivka from the south and break through to the O0532 Maryinka – Vuhledar road.
  • Units of the “Tavria” OSG defending Volodymyrivka and Mykilske, despite significant numerical and armament disparities, effectively hinder the enemy’s advancement. This preserves the option for the Ukrainian Defense Forces to conduct an offensive operation on the Volnovakha direction.
  • Berdyansk direction: OSG “Tavria” forces repelled Russian assaults near Prechystivka.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division made another attempt to advance to the south of Robotyne, but it ended in failure. The situation on the direction has stabilized.
  • On the Kherson direction, positional battles persisted near Krynky, with the enemy increasing its firepower on the left bank of Kherson Oblast.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 Cruise Missile Carrier. The total salvo is 4 “Kalibr” cruise missiles

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The command of the 2nd and 41st Army of the “Center” operational grouping placed the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army and the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army in reserve, leaving only one reinforced motorized infantry battalion at the frontline. Presumably, the enemy’s command plans to reinforce these brigades and use them as offensive development echelon. The 2 tank regiments of the 90th Tank Division, currently operating in the first echelon with separate platoons and squads, will also be utilized in the same capacity.
  • In the area of Novomykhailivka, the enemy has deployed almost the entire 20th Motorized Rifle Division. Its 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment is advancing from the north through Pobeda, while units of the 163rd Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, along with the 33rd and 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiments, are advancing with the support of at least two battalions from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet and the attached 1219th Motorized Rifle Regiment from the Russian Territorial Troops. They are advancing from the direction of Luhanske and Syhnalne.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy command’s segregation of forces engaged in the operation on the Avdiivka direction (referred to as the Pokrovsk direction by the enemy) within the Theater of Military Operations, the deployment of corresponding command and control systems, combat support, and logistics, coupled with elevated operational densities, signify the enemy’s endeavor to consolidate its tactical gains into the operations success specifically in this direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The command of the 2nd Army Corps is intensifying the offensive towards Siversk from the direction of Bakhmut.
  • The adversary’s command is expected to engage the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
  • In the near future, the enemy command will attempt to breach the defense of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG on the Pokrovsk direction. They will advance in the area of Kostiantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Toretsk with the aim of capturing Toretsk.
  • The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road
  • The enemy is developing a new tactic for deploying its strike aviation and offensive capabilities, particularly the X-36 “Grom” missiles. Subsequently, they plan to escalate the frequency of their air assaults.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.03.24 

Personnel – almost 421,430  people (+1,160);

Tanks – 6,695 (+17);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,779 (+51);

Artillery systems – 10,350 (+42);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,009 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 701 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,532 (+53);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,963 (+42);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,919 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 97 towns and villages and 119 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 7 people were reported killed and 15 injured in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On March 7, the adversary launched an aerial and missile attack on Sumy. One civilian was wounded, and the attack resulted in damage to a school, two medical facilities, and a water treatment plant.
  • On the morning of March 7, the Russian military conducted an airstrike on Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast. They once again used “KAB-500” against the civilian population. Three people who were on the street near their homes were injured.
  • The Kharkiv Oblast Defense Council has decided to conduct a mandatory evacuation of families with children from 18 villages within the Velykyi Burluk and Vilkhuvatka territorial communities located on the Kupyansk direction.
  • Currently, the parts of Donetsk Oblast under control of Ukrainian authorities is home to approximately 514,000 people. Evacuation priority is designated for elderly individuals, pensioners, families with children, and those with limited mobility. Deputy Chief of Donetsk Oblast Military Administration, Igor Boyko, has reported that their number surpasses 60,000.
  • In the territory of Donetsk Oblast under Ukrainian control, there are 41,125 children, some of whom live in close proximity to the front line.
  • In Kherson Oblast, an agrarian worker sustained injuries from an explosive device left by the Russian army. In the village of Myroliubivka, a tractor ran over a Russian mine, resulting in injuries to a 60-year-old man.

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