Russia’s war on Ukraine. 10.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 Russian attacks in the area of Terny and Spirne. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 6 Russian attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke and Pervomaiske. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka, where the adversary, with air support, attempted to breach the Ukrainian defense over 30 times. On the Orikhiv direction, they repelled 8 enemy attacks in the areas east of Levadne, Robotyne, and west of Verbove.

General conclusion:

• The situation on the Avdiivka direction has stabilized, and currently, Russian forces are conducting only local attacks.
• Russian forces have reduced the pace of their offensive operations near Robotyne, prompted by UAV strikes from the “Tavria” OSG and challenges in clearing seized Ukrainian trenches. The adversary’s limited tactical electronic warfare capabilities further hinder their offensive actions.
• The adversary launched a missile strike targeting a convoy of the Ukrainian Air Forces’ anti-aircraft missile unit in the vicinity of Serhiyivka (80 km from Donetsk). This marks the first case of their missile strike on a mobile target. The enemy is making efforts to breach the air defense of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in specific sectors.
• The Russian Armed Forces have withdrawn 25 to 40% of their tank reserves from storage facilities.
• Russian troops have recently begun conducting air strikes with UMPB (Universal Interspecies Munitions) guided glide bombs, which are jet-powered and increase the range of FAB-250/500 bombs to 80-95 km.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 73 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced to the east of Terny. Positional battles persisted near Yampolivka, Terny, and Spirne.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces slightly advanced within the limits of Ivanivske and control half of the village. Positional battles continued near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Druzhba, and Shumy.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced further into the center of Orlivka and in the fields to the south of Tonenke. Near Nevelske, the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the Russian 8th Army attacked without success. Positional battles took place in the areas of Stepove, Berdychi, Semenivka, Orlivka, Tonenke, Severne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, positional battles occurred in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and Volodymyrivka to the southeast of Vuhledar on the T0509 highway Vuhledar – Volnovakha – Mariupol.
• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles took place near Robotyne and Verbove.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 Cruise Missile Carriers. The total salvo is 12 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the 69th Separate Cover Brigade and the 165th Artillery Brigade of the 35th Army are in operation.
• The enemy command formed a UAV brigade on the basis of the 55th Separate Helicopter Regiment of the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army of the Southern MD and the BARS-Cascade detachment, consisting of two battalions of reconnaissance and strike UAVs, a reconnaissance UAV squadron and a support company. The brigade’s strength is over 820 personnel (up to 40 crews of Zala, Orlan-30, Supercam, and FPV UAVs). The brigade is employed in a decentralized manner along the entire front line.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The command of the 2nd Army Corps is intensifying the offensive towards Siversk from the direction of Bakhmut.
• The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
• The enemy command will attempt to breach the defense of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG on the Pokrovsk direction. They will advance in the area of Kostiantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Toretsk with the aim of capturing Toretsk.
• The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.
• The enemy is developing a new tactic for deploying its strike aviation and offensive capabilities, particularly the X-36 “Grom” missiles. Subsequently, they plan to escalate the frequency of their air assaults.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.03.24 

Personnel – almost 424,060  people (+900);

Tanks – 6,731 (+19);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,850 (+27);

Artillery systems – 10,466 (+38);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,015 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 709 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,752 (+69);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,082 (+41);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,919 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 14 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 146 towns and villages and 93 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of March 10, Russian forces launched four S-300 guided anti-aircraft missiles targeting areas in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, as well as 39 “Shahed” type UAVs. Ukrainian air defense successfully destroyed 35 UAVs.
• At midnight on March 10, Russian forces struck Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast using drones. Two bodies were recovered from the rubble of a private house. In addition, on Sunday morning, the enemy shelled Chasiv Yar with artillery killing a 66-year-old man.
• On the night of March 10, the Russian occupation forces hit Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast with three missiles, 12 people, including a teenager, were injured, three of them needed hospitalization. 10 multistory residential buildings sustained serious damage. 
• One of the missiles launched overnight hit an industrial facility in Novomoskovsk district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A 58-year-old man was injured as a result.
• During the day on March 10, Russian forces shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with artillery and launched 11 drones at residential areas. Two multi-story buildings, an infrastructure object, and power equipment were damaged. Due to the shelling, nearly two thousand customers were left without water supply. No casualties were reported among the residents.
• Over the past day, the police in Kharkiv Oblast evacuated five civilians, including two children, from areas under Russian shelling.
• As of noon on March 10, energy company employees were working on restoring electricity supply in eight regions of Ukraine, where partial power outages occurred due to Russian shelling, the Ministry of Energy reported.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent