Russia’s war on Ukraine. 11.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 Russian attacks in the area of Bilohorivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Spirne, and Rozdolivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 5 Russian attacks in the areas of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and east of Chasiv Yar.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 17 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka and Urozhaine, where the adversary, with air support, attempted to breach the Ukrainian defense 25 times. On the Orikhiv direction, they repelled 3 enemy attacks south of Novodarivka and northwest of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Defense Forces continue to maintain positions. During the past day, the enemy conducted 4 unsuccessful assault actions.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces are increasingly deploying off-road vehicles and all-terrain vehicles (quad bikes) to transport infantry near Robotyne, as their armored vehicles face destruction from the actions of the “Tavria” OSG.
• The enemy is focused on forming strategic reserves.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 64 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Lyman direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Yampolivka, Terny, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, units of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, and the 68th Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the Russia’s 8th Army advanced 200 meters towards Vyimka. Forces of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army attacked southwest of Siversk in the area of Rozdolivka and east of Siversk in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Spirne.
• Russian forces advanced on the eastern outskirts of Ivanivske, near Druzhba; a unit of the “Volunteer Assault Corps” “Sever-V” is attempting to advance within the limits of Bohdanivka. Positional battles persisted near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, east of Chasiv Yar, near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Druzhba, and Shumy.
• The 98th Airborne Division and the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps are advancing to Toretsk.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced south of Berdychi and in the western part of Orlivka. Positional battles persisted near Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, Severne, and Nevelske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda.
• On the Berdyansk direction, enemy units from the 29th Army advanced northwest of Shevchenkove. Positional battles took place near Novodarivka and Levadne.
• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles persisted near Robotyne and Verbove.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 Cruise Missile Carriers. The total salvo is 12 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The establishment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division is in progress, based on the resources of the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the 2nd Army within the Central Military District. This division is set to comprise the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (currently forming at the “Triokhizbionkivsky” training ground in Luhansk Oblast, expected to achieve combat readiness by April 1, 2024), along with the 506th and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments (under formation at the “Totskoye” training ground, with combat readiness expected by June 1, 2024). Additionally, it will include the 268th Artillery Regiment, the 1107th Separate Anti-tank Division, the 838th Separate Anti-aircraft Missile Division, the 907th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, the 1614th Separate Engineer Battalion, an Electronic Warfare Battalion, the 834th Separate Communications Battalion, the 140th Logistics Battalion, the 341st Separate Medical Battalion, and a separate UAV company.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The command of the 2nd Army Corps is intensifying the offensive towards Siversk from the direction of Bakhmut.
• The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
• The enemy command will attempt to breach the defense of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG on the Pokrovsk direction. They will advance in the area of Kostiantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Toretsk with the aim of capturing Toretsk.
• The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.
• The enemy is developing a new tactic for deploying its strike aviation and offensive capabilities, particularly the X-36 “Grom” missiles. Subsequently, they plan to escalate the frequency of their air assaults.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.03.24 

Personnel – almost 424,980  people (+920);

Tanks – 6,739 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,874 (+24);

Artillery systems – 10,499 (+33);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,016 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 711 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,826 (+74);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,141 (+59);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,919 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 120 towns and villages and 118 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of March 11, Ukrainian air defense forces in Odesa Oblast successfully intercepted and destroyed 10 “Shahed” drones. However, there were some impacts, including damage to an infrastructure object in the Odesa district.
• On March 10th, Russian forces caused the deaths of three civilians in Donetsk Oblast: two in Dobropillya and one in Chasiv Yar. Additionally, 12 individuals sustained injuries. The Chief of the Regional Military Administration reported that since the onset of the full-scale invasion, Russian troops have been responsible for the deaths of a minimum of 1,882 civilians in the region, with injuries inflicted on no fewer than 4,695 people. These figures exclude casualties from Mariupol and Volnovakha.
• According to the Northern Regional Border Guard Service, the Russian army has begun using drones equipped with incendiary mixtures against Ukraine, resulting in the outbreak of fires.
• On the evening of March 9, Russian forces launched a missile strike on the industrial facilities of the “Ukrlandfarming” group of agricultural companies in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to the company’s press service. A 58-year-old man, an employee of the enterprise, was injured in the attack. Additionally, the company’s production facilities, including the infrastructure of the elevator, were completely destroyed.
• Fifteen members of the Russian Federation army have been sentenced to up to 12 years in prison for their brutal treatment of civilians in the village of Yahidne, Chernihiv Oblast. It was established that in early March 2022, Russian military personnel, while stationed in the temporarily occupied village of Yahidne in the Chernihiv district, illegally detained and forcibly held 368 individuals, including 69 minors, in the basement of the Yahidne school as “human shields.” Local residents were used to shield the command post from potential offensive actions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ten civilians lost their lives due to the inhumane conditions and lack of necessary medical assistance in the “basement of death.
• Families with five children and an 18-year-old orphan were successfully brought back from the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast to the Ukrainian-controlled territory.
• Russian authorities have established a comprehensive system for the “re-education” of children abducted from Ukraine, aiming instill a “Russian identity” in them. Reports from the investigation by the Russian opposition publication Meduza indicate that the authorities are attempting to persuade these children that their parents have died, while labelling them as “potential terrorists.”

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