Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 15 Russian attacks in the area of Bilohorivka of Luhansk Oblast, Hryhorivka and Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 6 Russian attacks in the areas of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Stupochki, and east of Chasiv Yar.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka and Pobieda, where the adversary, with the air support, attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 21 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces seven times in the areas of Robotyne, Staromayorske, and northwest of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro. During the day, the enemy made one unsuccessful attempt to storm the “Odesa” OSG positions.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces will launch a simultaneous offensive on Terny and Yampolivka aimed at eliminating the stronghold of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the right bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River.
• Between March 3rd and March 10th, the frequency of Russian assaults in the Avdiivka sector decreased. However, Russian forces persist in their westward advancement beyond Avdiivka towards the Berdychi – Orlivka – Tonenke line, despite counterattacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
• The Russian forces operating along the Berdychi – Orlivka – Tonenke line exhibit signs of degradation, yet they persist in pursuing their designated objectives. There are notable shortcomings observed in the enemy’s tactical command structure, including a low level of training among command staff and inadequate cooperation, coordination, and communication between units, particularly those under different commands.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 72 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces were advancing east of Terny, but “Khortytsia” OSG units launched several counterattacks and now fully control the village.
• Positional battles persisted near Terny, Yampolivka, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, “Khortytsia” OSG units have advanced north of Bohdanivka.
• Units of the Russian 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division consolidated on the approaches to Ivanivske and cannot advance further. Positional battles are ongoing near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, east of Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Spirne, and Rozdolivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced 280 meters along Myru Street in Orlivka.
• Positional battles are ongoing in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have made minor progress north of Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, and southeast of Shevchenkove. Positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian forces have advanced southeast of Chervone and southeast of Hulyaipole. Positional battles are ongoing in the areas of Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
• Orikhiv direction: Russian forces have seized several positions between Robotyne and Verbove. Positional battles have been ongoing near Zherebyanky, Pyatykhatky, Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and northwest of Verbove.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 Cruise Missile Carriers. The total salvo is 12 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• A unit called “Varvar (Barbarian)” from the “Akhmat” Special Rapid Response Unit of the Russian National Guard and a separate reconnaissance unit called “Maestro” from the “Terek” Cossack Brigade of the “Voluntary Cossack Assault Corps” operate on the Bakhmut direction. The 1436th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 1st Army Corps operates near New York.
• The 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Army is active on the Novopavlivka direction, near Hеоrhiivka. The 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army operates near Pobieda. The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps is engaged in combat near Novomykhailivka.
• The 11th Army of the Russian Air Force and Air Defense Forces conducts combat operations on the Berdyansk direction. The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army conducts combat operations near Staromayorske. The 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army is advancing near Chervone.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The command of the 2nd Army Corps is intensifying the offensive towards Siversk from the direction of Bakhmut.
• The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
• The enemy command will attempt to breach the defense of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG on the Pokrovsk direction. They will advance in the area of Kostiantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Toretsk with the aim of capturing Toretsk.
• The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road
• The enemy is developing a new tactic for deploying its strike aviation and offensive capabilities, particularly the X-36 “Grom” missiles. Subsequently, they plan to escalate the frequency of their air assaults.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.03.24 

Personnel – almost 425,890 people (+910);

Tanks – 6,747 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,901 (+27);

Artillery systems – 10,522 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,016 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 713 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,826 (+74);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,184 (+43);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,920 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 101 towns and villages and 199 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• In the evening of March 12, Russian forces launched a X-59 guided aviation missile at Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Its fragments fell on a multi-story building, causing a fire and killing at least three people. The number of injured is constantly increasing, including the count of children among them. In total, the people who have suffered injuries amount to 36.
• The majority of Ukrainians (66%) believe that the Russian language should be excluded from official communication. This represents the highest percentage since the 1990s; in 1997, only 18% of Ukrainians supported this idea, and in 2015, it was 21%. According to a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in February 2024, only 3% of respondents expressed the opinion that the Russian language should be granted the status of a second official language.
• From February 24, 2022, Kyiv has experienced 1000 air raid alerts, with the alarm period lasting a total of 1165 hours and 26 minutes.
• Last year, approximately 330,000 hectares of agricultural land were surveyed and cleared of mines in the liberated territories of Kherson and Kharkiv Oblasts. These lands will be incorporated into the overall sowing areas for 2024.
• As of the end of January 2024, due to the war, there are 4.9 million Ukrainians living abroad. The majority of refugees are women and children, as reported by the Center for Economic Strategy. As of January 2024, the largest share of Ukrainian refugees in Europe live in Germany (30%) and Poland (22%). Outside of Europe, the countries admitting the highest numbers of Ukrainians since the full-scale invasion are the United States (280,000 individuals), the United Kingdom (253,200), and Canada (210,200).

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