Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 13.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled four enemy attacks in the areas near Synkivka and Tabaivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 Russian attacks in the area of Bilohorivka and Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 7 Russian attacks east of Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, Andriivka and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 26 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka where the adversary, with air support, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 26 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 12 times in the areas of Staromayorske, west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro and made 3 unsuccessful assaults.

General conclusion:

  • Units of the Russian Volunteer Corps, “Svoboda (Liberty)” Legion, and Siberian Battalion (Russian formations fighting on the Ukrainian side) initiated an infiltration into Russian territory on the night of March 12, 2024, particularly in Belgorod Oblast near the village of Lozovaya Rudka. They engaged in combat near Nekhoteevka and Spodaryushyno in Belgorod Oblast and Tyotkino in Kursk Oblast.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to stabilize the situation on the Avdiivka direction after the deployment of reinforcements; troop rotations are ongoing.
  • Russian forces have more EW equipment, unevenly distributed along the front. The enemy’s armored vehicles are vulnerable to Ukrainian Defense Forces’ UAV strikes due to the absence of dome EW systems.
  • Russian forces resumed attacks on the Berdyansk direction and are currently concentrating efforts in the areas near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
  • Russian forces continue to apply pressure in the Robotyne area, although the intensity of shelling has decreased.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 91 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, units of the enemy’s 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Army made minor progress near Synkivka. Positional battles were ongoing near Synkivka and Tabaivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces have pushed Ukrainian troops back by 200 meters in the wooded area east of Yampolivka.
  • Positional battles persisted near Terny, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces have advanced north of Klishchiivka. Positional battles were ongoing east of Chasiv Yar, in Ivanivske, and in the areas of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Stupochky, Pivdenne, and Pivnichne.
  • “Khortytsia” OSG units continue to hold positions in the western part of Ivanivske, with the enemy not controlling the village.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced east of Nevelske, although they were unable to capture the village. The 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian 1st Army Corps advanced east of Pervomaiske. Positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Berdychi, Semenivka, Novobakhmutivka, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have advanced along the H15 Highway, near the Maryinka dam, reaching the northeastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka.
  • Positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: Positional battles were ongoing south of Velyka Novosilka and southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Shevchenkove.
  • Orikhiv direction: Positional battles persisted near Robotyne and Verbove.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 Cruise Missile Carriers. The total salvo is 12 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • There have been recent appointments in the senior military leadership of the Russian Armed Forces:
    • Lieutenant General Andrey Buliga is now the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation for Logistics, having previously served as Deputy Commander of the Western Military District for Logistics.
    • Lieutenant General Aleksey Kuzmenkov, the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, has assumed the role of Deputy Commander of the National Guard of Russia for logistical and technical support.
    • Lieutenant General Aleksandr Periaziev, the commander of the 6th Army, and Lieutenant General Igor Seritsky, the deputy commander of the Western Military District, have been appointed deputy commanders of the newly formed Moscow Military District.
    • Lieutenant General Esedulla Abechev, the deputy commander of the 8th Army, has been appointed deputy commander of the troops of the Leningrad Military District.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The command of the 2nd Army Corps is intensifying the offensive towards Siversk from the direction of Bakhmut.
  • The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
  • The enemy command will attempt to breach the defense of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG on the Pokrovsk direction. They will advance in the area of Kostiantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Toretsk with the aim of capturing Toretsk.
  • The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road
  • The enemy is developing a new tactic for deploying its strike aviation and offensive capabilities, particularly the X-36 “Grom” missiles. Subsequently, they plan to escalate the frequency of their air assaults.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.03.24 

Personnel – almost 426,870 people (+980);

Tanks – 6,752 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,921 (+20);

Artillery systems – 10,554 (+32);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,017 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 715 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,932 (+62);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,205 (+22);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,919 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 101 towns and villages and 199 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Overnight on March 13th, Russian occupiers launched a drone attack on Sumy using “Shahed” drones, one of which struck a multi-story residential building. As of 4 p.m. there were confirmed reports of 2 fatalities and 8 injuries.
  • Around 2:00 PM on March 13th, Russian troops shelled border communities in Sumy Oblast. The attack resulted in the death of a 54-year-old man, while two women sustained injuries.
  • On March 12th, Russian forces launched an X-59 guided aviation missile towards Kryvyi Rih. Its debris hit a multi-story building, resulting in a fire. According to the final count, five people had died and over 40 were injured.
  • Late in the evening on March 12th, two individuals were killed and five others injured as a result of the Russian strike on the city of Myronohrad in Donetsk Oblast. Additionally, rescuers managed to extricate a 13-year-old girl from the rubble, who fortunately did not sustain any physical injuries. One injured person is in critical condition, while three others are in a moderate condition.
  • Ukraine has successfully repatriated five additional children from the occupied territory of Kherson Oblast, who were stranded there following Russia’s large-scale invasion. This group includes a mother with her four children, aged between 7 and 12 years old. Additionally, a 17-year-old boy, who chose not to acquire a Russian passport and had to hide from the occupying authorities, has been safely returned to Ukraine.
  • In Mykolaiv Oblast, the use of mechanized demining vehicles has facilitated the clearance of 47.3 hectares of agricultural land. Presently, sappers employ four such machines.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent