Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 14.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled four enemy attacks in the areas of Tabaivka and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 Russian attacks in the area of Bilohorivka, Terny, Yampolivka, and Verkhnyokamianske.  On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 3 Russian attacks east of Chasiv Yar, Bohdanivka, and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka and south of Zolota Nyva, where the enemy attempted to breach the defense 29 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 7 times in the areas of Staromayorske, west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro and made 2 unsuccessful assaults.

General conclusion:

  • The deployment of forces from the 1st Tank Army, notably far south beyond its designated operational zone (Kupyansk sector) is a response to the change in the tactical situation along the adjacent Lyman sector. This maneuver is reactionary and not part of any preconceived plan, especially involving the relocation of the entire army to a different operational sector.
  • The enemy command attempts to sustain its offensive momentum on specific fronts without reducing its pace. They are making advances in certain areas, making premature any claims of front-line stabilization. However, the operational overview suggests an overall deceleration in the Russian Armed Forces’ advance across the theater of operations, a trend the enemy command aims to counter by deploying forces and resources originally earmarked for exploiting success deep into the Ukrainian defense, which was planned to be breached.
  • The adversary has already committed most of its tactical reserves and initiated the deployment of operational reserves, including the 5th Separate Tank Brigade, the operational reserve of its “East” Operational Grouping. This brigade has been engaged in the offensive sector of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the vicinity of Staromayorske.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces have significantly slowed down the enemy’s advance by holding their forces at the Berdychi – Orlivka – Tonenke line, but this is insufficient to fully halt the enemy’s offensive operation on the Avdiivka direction.
  • The adversary maintains the initiative across the entire theater of operations, empowering them to dictate the location, timing, intensity, and requirements of combat actions. This flexibility allows the enemy’s military command to dynamically shift their priorities as needed.
  • Adjusting the priorities of offensive operations and reallocating forces and assets across different sectors of the front might result in a reduction of offensive activity, operational pauses, or temporary culmination in offensive efforts in sectors where striking formations are being reinforced.
  • The scarcity of ammunition and other military equipment in Ukraine, stemming from delays in receiving military assistance from the United States, could render the current front line more vulnerable, with areas experiencing the greatest shortages potentially exploited by the enemy for sudden advancements.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 79 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles continued in the area of Synkivka, near Tabaivka, and Stelmakhivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, the enemy resumed its advance on the left bank of the Siversky Donets River, in the Serebryansk forestry, and attacked towards Hryhorivka, where they engaged the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps, reinforced by the 1008th, 1194th, and 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops, was fully deployed in the sector from Klishchiivka to Andriivka. In this same sector, at least 2 battalions of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps are advancing, indicating the complete deployment of its main forces in the operation on the Bakhmut direction.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced to the eastern outskirts of Berdychi, moved along Pershotravneva Street in Pervomaiske, expanded their control over Tonenke, and captured new positions in the forested areas between Tonenke and Orlivka. The most intense fighting is taking place between Berdychi and Tonenke, but the overall intensity of combat in this area has slowed down.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army is almost fully deployed in battle, and its command is trying to maintain the pace of the advance. To achieve this, the 10th Tank Regiment has been repositioned from the Pokrovsk direction to the division’s operational zone. Its units have been spotted north and northeast of Novomykhailivka, where they are participating in attacks in coordination with the 1219th and 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiments.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, battles continued near Novodonetske, Shevchenkove, and Staromayorske. The 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army and the 336th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Baltic Fleet are advancing in this sector.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles persisted near Robotyne and Verbove. Engaging in combat on this front are the 22nd Separate SOF Brigade and the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 Cruise Missile Carriers. The total salvo is 12 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The enemy command persists in assembling strategic reserves, anticipated to be ready by the onset of summer 2024.

Escalation indicators:

  • Deployment of units from the 47th Tank Division on the Lyman direction, the 6th Motorized Rifle Division on the Bakhmut direction, and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division on the Novopavlivka direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The command of the 2nd Army Corps is intensifying the offensive towards Siversk from the direction of Bakhmut.
  • The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
  • The enemy command will attempt to breach the defense of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG on the Pokrovsk direction. They will advance in the area of Kostiantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Toretsk with the aim of capturing Toretsk.
  • The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.
  • The enemy is developing a new tactic for deploying its strike aviation and offensive capabilities, particularly the X-36 “Grom” missiles. Subsequently, they plan to escalate the frequency of their air assaults.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.03.24 

Personnel – almost 427,840 people (+970);

Tanks – 6,757 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,938 (+17);

Artillery systems – 10,565 (+11);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,017 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 717 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,959 (+27);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,220 (+15);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,920 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 140 towns and villages and 96 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 2 missile strikes and 64 aviation attacks. During the night, they targeted civilian populations with 36 “Shahed” drones, with Ukrainian Air defenses successfully destroying 22 of them.
  • On March 14th, the Russian army shelled the city of Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in injuries to 5 people, including a 7-year-old boy. Several high-rise buildings and municipal infrastructure were also damaged.
  • Ukraine has successfully repatriated a foster family with three orphaned children, two boys and a girl aged between 11 and 17 years old, to the territory of Kherson Oblast under Ukrainian control.
  • Following missile and air strikes conducted by the Russian Federation on radio-technical facilities in Sumy Oblast, broadcasting transmitters in Sumy, Shostka, Bilopillia, and Trostianets were temporarily disabled. Consequently, a portion of the region temporarily lost access to Ukrainian television and radio signals due to the inflicted damages. Moreover, disruptions in mobile communication were experienced in certain areas. Furthermore, during the night of March 14th, Russian occupiers initiated a widespread drone attack targeting television infrastructure sites in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • By May 9th, all schools in the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are to establish “Young Army” (a Russian youth organization) units. Enrollment is voluntary-coercive, as children are told to apply for membership to “avoid problems.”
  • The Russian occupation authorities send teenagers from the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories to participate in a “Yuntek (Youth Tech)” camp, where they will receive training in operating drones. Around 100 children aged 14-17, affiliated with the “Young Army,” will be transported for the event. The technology-focused camp is scheduled to take place in April at a facility in the Krasnodar region.

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