Russia’s war on Ukraine. 15.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 Russian attacks in the area of Terny, Yampolivka, Rozdolivka, and Bilohorivka, where the enemy, with the support of aviation, attempted to breach the defense. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 5 Russian attacks east of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka and Vodyane, where the enemy, with the support of aviation, attempted to breach the defense 24 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 7 times in the areas of Staromayorske, west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and made 1 unsuccessful assault.

General conclusion:

• The Russian military command is allocating tactical and operational reserves for an advance on the Lyman direction, near Bakhmut, and in the western and southwestern areas of Donetsk Oblast to prevent the Ukrainian “Khortytsia” and “Tavriya” OSGs forces from further stabilizing the front line.
• The Russian military command has concentrated up to 50,000 personnel on the Novopavlivka direction and has deployed tactical reserves to this sector, utilizing resources freed up following operations on the Avdiivka front.
• The adversary’s military command intends to sustain the highest feasible pace of offensive operations, aiming to capitalize fully on the delay in the provision of military aid to Ukraine from its partners.
• The cross-border raid by pro-Ukrainian Russian formations into the Kursk and Belgorod regions of Russia poses a choice for the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation: whether to endure reputational losses or divert resources from areas where the adversary is currently focusing its efforts.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 76 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, battles continued near Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Tabaivka, and Pershotravneve.
• On the Lyman direction, battles occurred near Terny, Yampolivka, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles persisted near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, east of Chasiv Yar, near Klishchiivka, New York, and near Verkhnyokamianske. The 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Northern Fleet is advancing near Bohdanivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced along Myru and Kazberov streets in the center of Berdychi and pushed further into Pervomaiske. Battles took place near Berdychi, Novobakhmutivka, Orlivka, Tonenke, Semenivka, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, and Nevelske.
• The Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG forces maintain positions in Nevelske, contrary to the enemy’s claims, which do not align with reality.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces made slight progress to the north of Heorhiivka. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, and Volodymyrivka.
• On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles took place near Staromayorske, Novodonetske, southeast of Hulyaipole, and north of Novoselivka.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced to the west of Verbove. Units of the “Tavriya” OSG conducted an unsuccessful counterattack in this direction. Positional battles took place near Robotyne and Verbove.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 Cruise Missile Carriers. The total salvo is 12 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Near Velyka Novosilka, combat actions are being conducted by the 305th Artillery Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army.

Escalation indicators:

• Russian forces intensified their offensive actions in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts on the morning of March 14th.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The command of the 2nd Army Corps is intensifying the offensive towards Siversk from the direction of Bakhmut.
• The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
• The enemy command will attempt to breach the defense of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG on the Pokrovsk direction. They will advance in the area of Kostiantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Toretsk with the aim of capturing Toretsk.
• The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.03.24 

Personnel – almost 428,420 people (+580);

Tanks – 6,758 (+1);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,949 (+11);

Artillery systems – 10,580 (+15);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,017 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 717 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,993 (+34);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,254 (+34);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,920 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• As of the morning of March 15, 2024, according to official information from juvenile prosecutors, 535 Ukrainian children have died, and over 1,257 have been injured to varying degrees of severity due to the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine. 
• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 103 towns and villages and 116 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On March 15, Russia launched two missiles at Odesa, resulting in the deaths of 19 people, including a paramedic and an emergency service worker who had arrived to provide assistance after the first strike. Additionally, 73 people were injured, including 7 rescuers.
• During the past day, Russian forces again shelled residential areas in Sumy Oblast. A total of 494 strikes were recorded on the communities of Trostianets, Velykopysarivka, and Seredyno-Buda, resulting in the deaths of two local residents and injuries to five others.
• During the night of March 15, Russian military forces launched an attack on Vinnytsia Oblast. As a result of a drone strike, four people were hospitalized, and one person was killed at the scene. Another person later died in the hospital. 
• As part of the latest repatriation effort, the bodies of another 100 fallen soldiers have been returned to Ukraine.
• The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, established by the UN, released a report. Among its findings, it determined that the hostilities in Mariupol and the city’s siege during the initial phase of the full-scale invasion had an extremely serious impact on the civilian population. Satellite imagery reveals extensive destruction of entire districts of the city, affecting a total of 15,555 structures (831 destroyed, 5,877 severely damaged, and 8,847 moderately damaged). However, the true scale of the damage is significantly greater.
• According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, in the temporarily occupied territories, Russian occupation authorities force migrants from Central Asia to vote in the Russian Presidential elections. In an effort to boost voter turnout, they initially permitted voting without passports and have now mandated construction companies to send a specified number of migrants to participate in the elections.

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