Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 17.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 Russian attack in the area of Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 5 Russian attacks in the areas of Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and east of Chasiv Yar.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka and east of Vodyane, where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 28 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 4 times in the areas of Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and made 2 unsuccessful assaults.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces repelled attacks by the Russian Volunteer Corps near Popivka in Sumy Oblast and in the direction of Spodaryushyno and Kozinka in Belgorod Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an attempt by two enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups to cross the Russian-Ukrainian border in the areas of Stara Huta and Bruske in Sumy Oblast.
  • Russian forces near Avdiivka have transitioned from “human wave assault” tactics to coordinated attacks using armored vehicles in a combined battle formation. This tactical shift enables them to sustain continuous pressure on the positions held by the “Tavriya” OSG in this sector.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 58 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Synkivka and Tabaivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, positional battles have been ongoing near Terny and  Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Rozdolivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, east of Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the adversary has seized Tonenke and is advancing west of Tonenke, reaching the outskirts of Semenivka, where it was halted by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army has captured Nevelske. The enemy is also advancing in Berdychi, between Berdychi and Orlivka. Near Stepove, the enemy’s advance is impeded by the fire control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from dominant heights and counterattacks.
  • Positional battles continued in the areas of Semenivka, Pervomaiske, and Novokalynove.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Volodymyrivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: Russian forces have advanced to the wooded areas west of Pryiutne and 1 kilometer deep north of Shevchenkove. Positional battles are ongoing near Staromayorske.
  • Orikhiv direction: positional battles have been ongoing near Robotyne and Verbove.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 Cruise Missile Carriers. The total salvo is 12 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • In the area of Ivanivske, units of the 58th Separate SOF Brigade of the 1st Army Corps are operating, while units of the “Vostok (East) volunteer brigade” are deployed on the Chasiv Yar direction.
  • Near Orlivka, the “Akmat-Zapad (Akmat-West)” battalion of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) is advancing.
  • The 5th Separate Tank Brigade and the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army are advancing west of Staromayorske and north of Novodonetske, with support from the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Over the next 34 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The command of the 2nd Army Corps is intensifying the offensive towards Siversk from the direction of Bakhmut.
  • The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
  • The enemy command will attempt to breach the defense of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG on the Pokrovsk direction with the aim of capturing Toretsk.
  • To bolster efforts on the Berdyansk direction, the enemy command may deploy a portion of units from the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet, which were previously replaced by the 5th Separate Tank Brigade as part of the operational reserve of the “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping.
  • The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 17.03.24 

Personnel – almost 430,740 people (+1160);

Tanks – 6,790 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,997 (+24);

Artillery systems – 10,634 (+28);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,017 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 720 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,073 (+49);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,272 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,922 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 129 towns and villages and 143 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night of March 17, Russian occupiers launched five S-300 guided surface-to-air missiles at Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, two Kh-59 guided aviation missiles at Chernihiv Oblast, and sixteen Shahed UAVs. Ukrainian air defense forces effectively shot down 14 UAVs.
  • On Sunday afternoon, Mykolaiv experienced two ballistic missile strikes. One person has died in the hospital, while the number of injured has risen to 6.
  • During the night on Sunday Russian strike drones damaged two mothballed agricultural enterprises in Odesa Oblast. Fires broke out, resulting in the destruction of industrial buildings. Fortunately, there were no casualties.
  • Throughout Sunday, the adversary launched 8 UAV strikes on Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and also utilized heavy artillery twice. The attacks resulted in five injuries. Besides damaging a gas station and a truck, infrastructure facilities and a five-story building were also affected in Nikopol.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent