Russia’s war on Ukraine. 19.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attempted 3 unsuccessful assaults on the Defense Forces’ positions near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attack in the area of Terny, where the enemy attempted to breach the defense. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 7 Russian attacks in the areas of Ivanivske and Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.Bottom of Form

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, and Urozhaine in Donetsk Oblast, where the enemy, supported by aviation, attempted to breach the defense 25 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 9 times in the areas of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and made 3 unsuccessful assaults.

General conclusion:

• The operational domain of the “Zapad (West)” operational grouping has notably widened due to the restructuring of the command and control system. A segment of the operational domain previously under the “Center” operational grouping has been reassigned to “Zapad.” This transformation has prompted the need for refined operational planning and the realignment of forces.
• The activities of pro-Ukrainian forces within Russian territory significantly affect the rear of the “Zapad (West)” operational grouping, notably impacting the 6th Army and the 11th Army Corps. This necessitates the deployment of additional forces to the “Bryansk,” “Kursk,” and “Belgorod” groupings of forces. The combined strength of these groupings is estimated at 30,000 personnel and is on the rise.
• Russian forces have employed a similar tactic of missile strikes twice (in Odesa and Mykolaiv). They pause after the initial strike and then launch a second strike targeting the rescue services arriving at the scene.
• The main thrust of the “Center” operational grouping is aimed at the Pokrovsk direction. Nonetheless, this does not rule out the potential repositioning of some of its forces further north, towards the Toretsk direction. The most probable area for such adjustments is Novoselivka – Shyroka Balka – Stavky – Troitske. However, such a scenario can only unfold if the adversary successfully breaches further west of the Siversky Donets–Donbas Canal, specifically in the Kurdyumivka area along the Zelenopillia–Ozaryanivka sector.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 61 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, units of the “Khortytsia” OSG repelled Russian attacks near Synkivka and Terny.
• The main striking force of the enemy on this direction consists of units from the 6th Army, 1st Tank Army, and 11th Army Corps of the Russian Baltic Fleet. Their immediate task is to reach the Oskil River line. The enemy is attempting to advance towards key points of the defense system of the “Khortytsia” OSG (the Kucherivka-Petropavlivka line and the area of Kupyansk-Vuzlovy) along converging directions.
• On the Synkivka-Petropavlivka direction, the 138th and 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 6th Army and a portion of the forces from the 11th Army Corps of the Russian Baltic Fleet are advancing. Along the Svatove-Kupyansk road, on the directions of Tabaivka-Stepova Novoselka and Tabaivka-Pishchane, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, 4th Tank Division, and 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army, along with a portion of the forces from the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet, are advancing.
• On the Lyman direction, units of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps unsuccessfully attacked near Bilohorivka. The enemy is attempting to reach the Lyman-Yampil line and create conditions for returning to the outskirts of Sloviansk from the northeast. The 3rd and 144th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 20th Army are trying to eliminate the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River and break through to Terny. The 67th Motorized Rifle Division, supported by the 11th Separate Tank Brigade of the 25th Army, is supporting these actions from the south and attempting to break through to Torske.
• On the Bakhmut direction, units of the “Khortytsia” OSG repelled 2 enemy attacks near Rozdolivka. Positional battles continued in the areas of Ivanivske, towards Chasiv Yar, near Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced several hundred meters near Berdychi, Orlivka, and Pervomaiske.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces captured several positions near Novokalynove. Positional battles continued in the areas of Oleksandropil, Berdychi, Semenivka, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda.
• On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Urozhaine, Staromayorske, and Vodyane. In the vicinity of Velyka Novosilka, forces from the 5th, 29th, 36th Army, and the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet are operating. This grouping comprises at least 9 separate brigades, 11 regiments, and 6 battalions.
• The main efforts of the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping command are focused on the Staromlynivka – Velyka Novosilka direction, aiming to restore their positions along their forward edge as of June 2023.
• The enemy managed to improve their tactical position between Pryiutne and Staromayorske, but they cannot exploit this success further.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces have slightly advanced to the east of Luhovske. Positional battles were ongoing near Robotyne, Verbove, and Myrne.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 Cruise Missile Carriers. The total salvo is 12 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” operational grouping comprises up to 16 brigades/regiments, 6 battalions, 2-4 BARS and Storm detachments. In reserve, they have 5 regiments and up to 3 battalions.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy has up to 21 brigades/regiments, up to 3 battalions, and up to 4 BARs and Storm detachments.
• The enemy’s “Center” operational grouping is conducting an offensive operation on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions. It consists of the 2nd and 41st Armies, the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army, and the 90th Tank Division. The operational grouping comprises up to 23 regiments, 13 battalions, and 4 Storm and BARS detachments. The main thrust is on the Pokrovsk direction.
• The enemy’s “Vostok (East)”operational grouping is conducting an offensive operation on the Vremivka direction. It consists of the 5th, 29th, and 36th Armies, and the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Pacific Black Fleet. It comprises 21 brigades/regiments and 6 battalions/detachments.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Over the next 34 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The adversary’s command has to regroup its forces on the Kupyansk direction, increase efforts on the Lyman direction, particularly in the areas of Terny and Yampolivka, and unblock the actions of the “Yug (South)” operational grouping, currently hindered from initiating an offensive towards Siversk from the south and the front.
• Considering the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ control over the last agglomeration (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk) in Donetsk Oblast, the strategic relevance of the “Zapad (West)” operational grouping in the adversary’s offensive campaign in 2024 is significant.
• The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
• The enemy command will attempt to breach the defense of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG on the Pokrovsk direction and capture Toretsk.
• To bolster efforts on the Berdyansk direction, the enemy command may deploy a portion of units from the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Baltic Fleet, which were previously replaced by the 5th Separate Tank Brigade as part of the operational reserve of the “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping.
• The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 19.03.24 

Personnel – almost 432,390 people (+840);

Tanks – 6,819 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 13,049 (+35);

Artillery systems – 10,698 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,017 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 721 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,191 (+50);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,318 (+10);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,922 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• President Zelensky has stated that Russian forces have deployed 130 missiles of various types, over 320 “Shahed” drones and close to 900 guided aerial bombs throughout Ukraine since the onset of March 2024.
• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 109 towns and villages and 94 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• In Sumy Oblast, law enforcement registered 274 Russian strikes within a single day, resulting in the destruction of residential buildings and shops. As of March 18, due to escalated Russian shelling, 285 individuals, including 26 children were evacuated from Velyka Pysarivka village.Bottom of Form
• During the past day, Russian forces launched attacks on nine towns and villages in Kherson Oblast, killing three civilians.
• Overnight on March 19, Russian forces targeted the residential area of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast with the S-300 surface-to-air missile system, resulting in the injury of four civilians.
• On March 19, Russian military forces targeted six riverbank villages in Kherson Oblast using drones. The invaders utilized FPV drones to strike these areas, dropping explosives and causing at least two dozen impacts. In the Novovorontsovka community, an explosive was dropped from a drone onto a car, resulting in injuries to two individuals.
• The Security Service of Ukraine has officially charged Russian State Duma deputy Yana Lantratova and her accomplice Inna Varlamova, the wife of the leader of the faction in the Russian Federal Assembly, Sergei Mironov, who took two Ukrainian children from Kherson to Russia.
• The self-proclaimed “Luhansk People’s Republic government” has approved a procedure for the permanent confiscation of property owned by Ukrainians who were compelled to leave the occupied territories. The document discusses granting permission by the so-called “government” to legal entities to dispose of movable “ownerless” property.

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