Russia’s war on Ukraine. 20.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy launched 10 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 Russian attack in the areas of Bilohorivka, Terny and Spirne. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 Russian attacks in the areas east of Predtechyne, Klishchiivka and Bila Hora.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, and Urozhaine, where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 29 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 6 times in the areas of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro and made an unsuccessful assault.

General conclusion:

• The enemy conducts two shaping operations in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Novomykhailivka.
• The enemy has escalated its activities on the Lyman front, creating conditions for an offensive towards Siversk from the south and east by the units of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Combined Arms Army.
• In response to the actions of Russian volunteer groups within Russian territory, the enemy military command is escalating artillery strikes on civilian areas in the Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts of Ukraine.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 80 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, “Khortytsia” OSG troops repelled Russian assaults in the area of Synkivka.
• On the Lyman direction, “Khortytsia” OSG troops repelled Russian assaults near Terny and  Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Ivanivske, Andriivka, Klishchiivka, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora. “Khortytsia” OSG units hold positions on the western outskirts of Ivanivske, with heavy fighting ongoing within the village itself.
• On the Avdiivka direction, The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the enemy’s 8th Army has captured Orlivka, but doesn’t not fully control the village due to constant counterattacks by “Tavria” OSG units. Russian forces have advanced to the northwestern edge of the Pervomaiske Dam in Pervomaiske. Battles were ongoing near Pervomaiske and Nevelske.
• Russian forces are intensifying shelling on Berdychi and Tonenke, while aviation is continuously striking Ukrainian positions in these two villages with glide bombs.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, heavy fighting continues near Krasnohorivka, where the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, supported by the 238th Artillery Brigade of the enemy’s 8th Army, cannot significantly advance in this area despite frequent infantry attacks backed by armored vehicles. Battles also took place near Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction: positional battles are ongoing near Staromayorske and Pryiutne.
• Orikhiv direction: Russian forces have advanced northwest of Verbove. Positional battles were ongoing near Robotyne.
• On the Kherson direction, positional battles continued on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky. In Krynky, there are still separate units of the Naval Infantry of the Ukrainian Navy, with most of their units positioned to the west of the village in riverbank and wooded areas. Part of the “Odesa” OSG forces continues combat operations in dacha plots near the Antonivskyi railway bridge (north of Oleshky).
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 Cruise Missile Carrier. The total salvo is 8 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 3rd Army Corps, the 98th Airborne Division, the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade, and the 58th Separate SOF Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the enemy’s 8th Army conduct combat operations on the Bakhmut direction.
• The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Baltic Fleet, and the 14th Separate SOF Brigade, supported by the 11th Army of Air and Air Defense Forces are involved in combat operations near Vuhledar.
• Troops from the 49th Army and the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army operate south of Velyka Novosilka.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy’s advance towards the northwestern edge of the Pervomaiske Dam in Pervomaiske.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Over the next 34 months, Russia intends to capture Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The adversary’s command has to regroup its forces on the Kupyansk direction, intensify activities on the Lyman direction, particularly in the areas of Terny and Yampolivka, and unblock the actions of the “Yug (South)” operational grouping, currently hindered from initiating an offensive towards Siversk from the south and the east.
• Considering the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ control over the final agglomeration (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk) in Donetsk Oblast, the strategic importance of the “Zapad (West)” operational grouping in the adversary’s offensive campaign in 2024 is notably heightened.
• The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
• The enemy command will attempt to breach the defense of the Ukrainian “Tavriya” OSG on the Pokrovsk direction and capture Toretsk.
• The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 20.03.24 

Personnel – almost 433,090  people (+700);

Tanks – 6,828 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 13,058 (+9);

Artillery systems – 10,714 (+16);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,017 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 721 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,198 (+7);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,355 (+37);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,922 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 138 towns and villages and 116 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Six individuals, including two children, were injured as a result of Russian shelling in the Synelnykove district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Among the victims is a family whose home was destroyed by the attacks. The family includes a 12-year-old boy, his 19-year-old sister, and their 57-year-old father, all in moderate condition. The most severely injured is a 47-year-old woman.
• Russian forces attacked civilian vehicles in the Kherson community on the road between Sadove and Antonivka. Two men were killed in the attack.
• Russian forces struck one of the districts in Kharkiv on March 20, resulting in the deaths of 5 people and several injuries. There may be people trapped under the rubble. There is a significant fire at the site of the impact.
• On March 20th, Russian forces launched attacks using 9 kamikaze drones and shelled three communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. As a result, several houses were destroyed, and one person was injured.
• The border regions of Sumy Oblast are heavily impacted by enemy shelling, with the Velyka Pysarivka community bearing the brunt of the attacks. The villages of Popivtsi and Lukashivtsi within the Velyka Pysarivka community have been particularly hard hit, with destruction reaching 90%. Velyka Pysarivka itself has suffered 40% destruction.
• Ukraine has successfully repatriated a foster family with two children aged 13 and 15 from the occupied territory of Kherson Oblast who ended up in occupation following the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation.
• According to the Sociological Group “Rating,” 75% of respondents in Ukraine believe that justice cannot be achieved without the arrest and trial of those responsible for the attack on Ukraine and war crimes.
• According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, in the temporarily occupied territories, Russian occupiers have prohibited their military personnel from conversing with locals unless it is required by official duties. This decision was made due to the significant amount of information being passed on to the Ukrainian Defense Forces by the locals.

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