Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 22.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, the enemy, supported by aviation, attempted two unsuccessful assaults on Defense Forces positions in the vicinity of Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Terny, Spirne, Vesele, and Rozdolivka, where the enemy, with air support, sought to breach the defense. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 15 Russian attacks in the areas east of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Semenivka, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, and Urozhaine, where the enemy, with air support, attempted to breach the defense 25 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy with air support attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 8 times in the areas of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

General conclusion:

  • In the area of Bilohorivka on the Lyman direction, the enemy employs the following tactics: reconnaissance via UAVs, strikes with guided bombs on Defense Forces positions, artillery preparation of the attack, deployment of small infantry groups (detachments – companies) supported by light armored vehicles, FPV drone assaults on frontline targets from distances of 50-150 meters, attack, and, in case of success, seizure of positions followed by rapid consolidation on them.
  • The overall shortage of material resources in the Defense Forces limits their capacity to execute effective defensive operations, while providing the enemy with flexibility in conducting offensive operations.
  • The primary objective of the enemy’s activities in the South-Western theater of operations continues to be the encirclement of a portion of the “Tavriya” OSG forces in the vicinity of Toretsk through encirclement operations along the Bakhmut – Pokrovsk and Avdiivka – Pokrovsk directions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 74 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles took place near Synkivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, positional battles occurred near Terny, Yampolivka, and Zolotarivka. Bilohorivka was attacked by the 2nd, 6th, 7th, 85th, and 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Army Corps.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces advanced to the north of Ivanivske and captured the Alebastrova railway station. Positional battles took place near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and New York.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, units of the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army and the 1453rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 1st Army Corps control half of Berdychi. Positional battles took place near Semenivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, Netaylove, and Nevelske.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, positional battles took place near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the Russia’s 5th Army conducted positional battles near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles took place near Robotyne. The 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division of the enemy attacked northwest of Verbove.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles, with a total salvo of 8 Kalibr missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles, with a total salvo of 8 Kalibr missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition: not detected

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations could include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
  • The adversary’s command has to regroup its forces on the Kupyansk direction, increase efforts on the Lyman direction, particularly in the areas of Terny and Yampolivka, and unblock the actions of the “Yug (South)” operational grouping, currently hindered from initiating an offensive towards Siversk from the south and the east.
  • Considering the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ control over the final agglomeration (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk) in Donetsk Oblast, the strategic importance of the “Zapad (West)” operational grouping in the adversary’s offensive campaign in 2024 is notably heightened.
  • The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
  • The command of the 58th Army is poised to imminently deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 22.03.24 

Personnel – almost 434,710  people (+870);

Tanks – 6,840 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 13,111 (+37);

Artillery systems – 10,775 (+35);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,018 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 723 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,287 (+45);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,388 (+23);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,953 (+31);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 15 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 125 towns and villages and 150 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night of March 22, 2024, the enemy launched the most massive yet combined missile and aerial strike on critical infrastructure targets in Ukraine. In total, 63 strike UAVs and 88 missiles of various types were fired across Ukraine, of which the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces managed to destroy 55 kamikaze drones and 37 missiles. Explosions were heard in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Kropyvnytskyi, as well as in Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv Oblasts.
  • As a result of the missile attack on March 22nd, the largest hydroelectric power plant (HPP) in Ukraine, DniproHES in Zaporizhzhya, sustained damage. The situation at the station’s dam is under control, with no threat of breach reported. “Ukrhydroenergo” confirmed two direct hits on DniproHES at HPP-1 and HPP-2. The extent of damage to HPP-2 is severe, and it remains uncertain whether it can be restored. The plant endured a total of 8 missile strikes, with emergency services currently active on-site. While some equipment remains operational, electricity generation is currently halted.
  • The Russian missile strike on Zaporizhzhya killed three people, and injured 25. An 8-year-old girl and a 35-year-old man, father and daughter, died from the impact of a Russian missile on a single-family home sector in Zaporizhzhya. The attack also claimed the life of a 62-year-old man – a trolleybus driver who was moving along the dam of the hydroelectric power station. There were no passengers on the transport.
  • Two people were killed and six others were injured as a result of the night Russian attack on Khmelnytskyi. Occupiers fired a rocket at a residential building, while a drone targeted a critical infrastructure object.
  • In the evening of March 22, Russian forces once again launched ballistic missiles at Odesa Oblast, targeting the region’s critical infrastructure. The attack resulted in a fire at the impact site which was quickly sustained.
  • In Odesa and the Odesa Oblast, emergency electricity shutdowns will be implemented due to the inability to follow outage schedules. This decision comes as a result of extensive damage caused by the morning Russian attack, according to the DTEK press service.
  • On March 22, the Ukrainian energy workers restored the operation of the external 750 kV overhead “Dniprovska” power line damaged during the morning’s massive rocket attack by the Russian Federation. Currently, two power lines are reconnected to the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant from the integrated energy system of Ukraine: “Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant — Ferroalloy Plant” with a voltage of 330 kV and “Dniprovska”, ensuring the power supply for the station’s own needs.
  • On March 22nd, the Russian army launched 10 drone kamikaze attacks and artillery shelling on Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A 57-year-old man was injured as a result.
  • In the early hours of March 22, Russian forces launched an attack on the village of Zmiivka in Kherson Oblast, resulting in the death of a 57-year-old man. Later in the day, in Chernihiv Oblast, an enemy drone struck a minibus carrying civilians, injuring three individuals. Furthermore, Russian forces carried out three strikes with guided bombs on the center of Semenivka town, injuring two people and demolishing a cultural center.
  • Thanks to Qatar, nine Ukrainian children have been successfully repatriated, five children abducted by Russia: four of them from orphanages, aged 3 to 10, and one 12-year-old girl. Four more children had previously returned from the temporarily occupied territories.

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