Russia’s war on Ukraine. 24.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Rozdolivka, Vesele, Spirne, where the enemy, supported by the aviation, tried to breach Ukrainian defenses. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 15 Russian attacks in the areas east of Klishchiivka, Bohdanivka, and Ivanivske.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, Yasnobrodivka, and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, Kostyantynivka, and Urozhaine, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 34 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy with air support attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 4 times in the area of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro and made 2 unsuccessful assaults in the area of Krynky.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces on the Bakhmut direction conduct assaults utilizing armored vehicles to provide fire support and transport infantry to the attack line. “Khortytsia” OSG units have rendered 60 to 70% of the enemy’s combat vehicles inoperable during attacks near Bakhmut.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian troops have not conducted any assaults in the last 4 days without significant armored support. Enemy assault groups begin attacks on Ukrainian positions at dawn. Notably, Russian forces have started employing FPV drones during nighttime operations, managed by specialized units. A powerful grouping of enemy EW forces and means is operating in the direction. The enemy has increased the use of munitions containing chlorobenzylidene malononitrile (CS) or chloropicrin (PS), thus violating the relevant international convention.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 75 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles continued near Synkivka, Tabaivka and Berestove.
• On the Lyman direction, positional battles were ongoing near Terny, Yampolivka, Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles were ongoing in the areas of  Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, New York, Siversk, Rozdolivka, Vesele, Spirne.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced slightly towards the wind protection strip south of Berdychi and in the field to the west of Tonenke, advancing northwest of Tonenke and north of Orlivka. Battles have been ongoing near Berdychi, near Tonenke, Semenivka, Orlivka, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have advanced slightly north of Novomykhailivka and towards Krasnohorivka.
• “Tavriya” OSG troops repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Kostiantynivka.
• Berdyansk direction: Positional battles persisted to the south of Novodarivka, near Urozhaine, Staromayorske, and Vodyane.
• Orikhiv direction: Russian forces achieved limited success to the west of Verbove.
• On the Kherson direction, Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian assaults near Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Black Sea – 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 Cruise Missile Carrier. The total salvo is 8 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army is engaged in combat operations on the Shakhtarsk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations could include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will make efforts to stabilize the front line and ensure an operational pause for 3-4 months to rearm and replenish personnel to a minimum of 150-200 thousand servicemen.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will intensify attacks using long-range UAVs to target objects in the operational and strategic rear of the Russian Federation, primarily focusing on important targets such as oil and gas facilities, depots, pipelines, military airfields, factories producing dual-use goods, and war-related infrastructure.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain control of the final agglomeration (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk) in Donetsk Oblast; the strategic importance of the “Zapad (West)” operational grouping in the adversary’s offensive campaign in 2024 is notably heightened.
• The battles for Terny and Yampolivka will persist for a while, yet it is evident that the enemy will succeed in cutting off the Nevske-Torske road along the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south, likely in the area of Terny. The southern part of the foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River will be eliminated by the enemy in the near future.
• The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
• The command of the 58th Army is poised to deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 24.03.24 

Personnel – almost 436,750  people (+990);

Tanks – 6,876 (+24);

Armored combat vehicles – 13,158 (+28);

Artillery systems – 10,855 (+44);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,018 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 723 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,407 (+63);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,510 (+47);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,922 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 112 towns and villages and 85 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of March 24, Ukrainian air defense forces successfully intercepted 18 missiles and 25 “Shahed” drones launched by Russian forces. According to military reports, the attackers utilized 29 X-101/X-555 cruise missiles and 28 “Shahed” strike drones.
• Russian occupiers used 234 FPV drones in the border areas of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts on Saturday, increasing their number by almost 40% compared to the previous day.
• Following an enemy attack on March 24th, facilities belonging to the “Naftogaz” group in the western part of the country were damaged. The above-ground infrastructure of one of the underground gas storage facilities was damaged.
• In Kharkiv, the energy situation remains the most challenging. In the city, due to Russian attacks, the thermal power plant and all transformer substations were destroyed. Approximately 40% of Kharkiv residents have had their electricity restored. Meanwhile, heating has been restored in 60% of buildings, and water is functioning in almost all areas. The city has implemented schedules for stabilization power outages.
• In Odesa, schedules for stabilization power outages are being implemented due to increased electricity consumption during the evening peak hours.
• The fire at a critical infrastructure site in the Lviv Oblast, targeted by the Russian forces on March 24, was finally extinguished late in the evening. Two Kinzhal missiles struck the facility in the morning, following a nighttime assault. Firefighters were promptly alerted, allowing them to relocate to a secure location before the second attack.

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