Russia’s war on Ukraine. 26.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack in the vicinity of Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 15 enemy attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Rozdolivka and north of Vesele. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks in the area of Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi and Pervomaiske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy near Novomykhailivka, where the adversary attempted to breach defense 22 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 4 times in the areas of Staromayorske, southwest of Bilohirya, and northwest of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and but did not conduct offensive (assault) actions during the past day.

General conclusion:

• In the area of the Serebryansk Forest, Russian forces are conducting attacks with groups of up to 30 personnel, reinforced by 2-3 armored vehicles, and have not carried out large-scale assault actions in this sector since late December 2023.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 57 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles continued near Synkivka.
• On the Lyman direction, positional battles took place near Terny, Yampolivka, Serebryansk Forestry, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces reached the Rozdolivka-Vesele line and pushed back units of the “Khortytsia” OSG to the northern bank of the Sukha Plotva River, advanced in Bohdanivka, and now control half of the village, near the railway northeast of the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal. Battles are ongoing near the Stupky-Holubovske-2 Reserve. Positional battles occurred north of Vesele, in the areas of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and New York.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced in Orlivka and west of Tonenke, advancing towards Semenivka, between Orlivka and Berdychi. Positional battles took place near Berdychi, Tonenke, Umanske, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
• On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles persisted near Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced to the northwest of Verbove. Positional battles were ongoing near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
• On the Kherson direction, Russian forces attempted an unsuccessful advance on Ukrainian positions on the eastern (left) bank of the Kherson Oblast.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 Cruise Missile Carrier. The total salvo is 8 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.
• As a result of a missile strike on the Sevastopol naval base, the reconnaissance ship “Ivan Hurs” and the large landing ship “Kostiantyn Olshansky” were damaged.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• On the Kherson direction, combat operations are being conducted by the 80th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian North Fleet.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations could include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will make efforts to stabilize the front line and ensure an operational pause for 3-4 months to rearm and replenish personnel to a minimum of 150-200 thousand servicemen.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will intensify attacks using long-range UAVs to target objects in the operational and strategic rear of the Russian Federation, primarily focusing on important targets such as oil and gas facilities, depots, pipelines, military airfields, factories producing dual-use goods, and war-related infrastructure.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain control of the final agglomeration (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk) in Donetsk Oblast; the strategic importance of the “Zapad (West)” operational grouping in the adversary’s offensive campaign in 2024 is notably heightened.
• The battles for Terny and Yampolivka will persist for a while, yet it is evident that the enemy will succeed in cutting off the Nevske-Torske road along the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south, likely in the area of Terny. The southern part of the foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River will be eliminated by the enemy in the near future.
• The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
• The command of the 58th Army is poised to deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 26.03.24 

Personnel – almost 438,160 people (+770);

Tanks – 6,893 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 13,207 (+24);

Artillery systems – 10,904 (+27);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,019 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 727 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,498 (+44);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,553 (+14);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,014 (+4);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 111 towns and villages and 94 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of March 26, Russian invaders attacked Ukraine with 12  “Shahed” UAVs launched from the occupied Crimea and Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Defense Forces successfully shot down all enemy drones.
• Russian forces launched an attack on Novohrodivka in Donetsk Oblast on the night of March 26th, resulting in 1 fatality and 1 injury.
• As a result of a missile strike on a recreational area in Odesa on the evening of March 25th, at least nine people sought medical assistance. Buildings and infrastructure were damaged. The enemy once again employed the tactic of a double strike: first, one missile struck, and then, after a few minutes, considering the arrival of emergency services, another missile followed.
• On March 26th, a Russian Kh-35U missile targeted a dormitory at the sports college in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, resulting in injuries to a man.
• Russian authorities currently hold over 10,000 Ukrainian civilians captive in occupied territories and in Russia. Although criminal investigations have identified 5,600 Ukrainian individuals who have endured torture at the hands of the occupiers, the true number is likely much higher, according to Ukraine’s Prosecutor General, Andriy Kostin.
• As of 13:30 on March 26th, stabilization schedules for power outages are being implemented following the attack on energy facilities in Odesa and the surrounding area. Currently, 23,000 consumers are without electricity.
• In Kharkiv, power outages last for 4-6 hours, and although the subway has managed to reduce train intervals during peak hours, there is no capacity available to launch surface electric transport. It will take 14 days to restore power supply in the city, officials say.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent