Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.03.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka and Terny, where the enemy, supported by aviation, attempted to break through the defense. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 4 enemy attacks in the areas of Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks in the areas of Berdychi, Umanske, Tonenke, Semenivka, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske, where the enemy, supported by aviation, tried to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane, where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 25 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy carried out 4 unsuccessful attacks on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of Staromayorske and northwest of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro. Over the past day the enemy made 3 attacks on Ukrainian positions.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces continue to maintain a contingent of up to 100,000 personnel on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, with the ability to rotate tactical units at least once a week and replenish personnel and combat equipment losses.
• Russian forces are concentrating additional troops on the Kupyansk direction with the aim of capturing Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Vuzlovy.
• Russian forces are exhibiting heightened activity on the Lyman direction in the vicinities of Bilohorivka and Terny. However, their efforts to advance on the Kupyansk axis, near Synkivka and Ivanivka, have been unsuccessful.
• The reconnaissance of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have not detected the concentration of Russian forces indicating an imminent assault on Kharkiv.
• Russian UAVs constitute a substantial threat to the Ukrainian Defense Forces, with the adversary continuously increasing their numbers.
• The Russian occupation authorities continue efforts to restore and expand transportation, industrial, and military infrastructure to support the war in Ukraine and the prolonged occupation of captured territories. They are constructing a railway through the Telmanovo district of Donetsk Oblast, east of the Volnovakha–Mariupol line, at the international border with the Russian Federation.
• Russian forces have discontinued their utilization of the railway bridge across the Kerch Strait for military and logistical transport purposes.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 72 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Lyman direction, positional battles took place near Terny and Bilohorivka, where the enemy’s 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps attacked.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy’s 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade advanced in the area of Ivanivske. The enemy achieved progress in Bohdanivka. Positional battles occurred in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Novyi Rayon (eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar), Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces slightly advanced to the north of Krasnohorivka and to the south of Nevelske, gradually progressing to the northwest and west of Tonenke. Positional battles took place in the areas of Semenivka, Berdychi, Tonenke, Umanske, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces made minor progress to the north of Novomykhailivka, and units of the 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific  Fleet advanced to the center of the village. The enemy is advancing in Heorhiivka to the west along Central and Gagarin streets. Positional battles occurred near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Vodyane.
• On the Berdyansk direction, Russian forces made slight progress to the south of Urozhaine. Positional battles took place near Staromayorske and to the north of Pryiutne.
• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 Cruise Missile Carrier. The total salvo is 8 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• On the Shakhtarsk direction, units of the enemy’s 30th Artillery Brigade of the 36th Army are operating.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations may include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces retain control over the final agglomeration (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk) in Donetsk Oblast. The strategic significance of the “Zapad (West)” operational grouping in the adversary’s offensive campaign in 2024 is notably elevated.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will make efforts to stabilize the front line and ensure an operational pause for 3-4 months to rearm and replenish personnel, aiming for a minimum force strength of 150-200 thousand servicemen.
• The enemy command will endeavor to cut off the Nevske-Torske road along the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south in the area of Terny and will attempt to eliminate the southern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
• The adversary’s command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
• The command of the 58th Army is poised to deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.03.24 

Personnel – almost 441,520 people (+730);

Tanks – 6,951 (+29);

Armored combat vehicles – 13,284 (+20);

Artillery systems – 11,006 (+15);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,023 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 736 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,670 (+25);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,701 (+45);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,046 (+25);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• As a result of the Russian Federation’s armed aggression in Ukraine, over 1,810 children have suffered, with 537 fatalities and 1,273 injuries reported.
• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 83 towns and villages and 104 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the past day, the enemy launched 38 missile strikes and 75 airstrikes.
• During the past day, approximately 20 towns and villages in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to artillery and mortar strikes, resulting in two casualties due to Russian aggression.
• Overnight, the Ukrainian Air Defense Force successfully intercepted 9 out of 12 enemy drones, but failed to intercept four missiles. Consequently, an infrastructure object in Poltava Oblast sustained several hits. Debris from one “Shahed” drone caused a fire at an elevator in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Additionally, Russian forces targeted Nikopol with a kamikaze drone, damaging an infrastructure object.
• Throughout the day, the Russian military launched attacks on Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts using various types of missiles, targeting infrastructure in Mykolaiv Oblast with guided aviation missiles. One missile was successfully intercepted. However, some strikes resulted in impacts, causing damage to a mothballed building.
• On March 30, Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast was subjected to artillery fire from the Russian military. The attack targeted a densely populated residential area. Two civilians were killed, and one person was injured. Later in the day, four more people were injured as a result of shelling in Kurakhove and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast.
• Emergency power outages have been lifted in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, and Sumy Oblasts. However, challenges persist in Kharkiv Oblast, where over 18,000 households are still without electricity. In Kharkiv city, network restrictions affect 120,000 consumers.
• The Russian strike on March 22 inflicted extensive damage, destroying all units and causing significant damage to auxiliary equipment at Zmiivska, one of Kharkiv Oblast’s largest thermal power plants. The extent of destruction ranges from complete to significant.

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