Russia’s war on Ukraine. 02.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in the area of Terny, where the enemy, with air support, tried to breach Ukrainian defenses. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 18 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Spirne, Ivano-Daryivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Chasiv Yar, where the enemy, with the support of aviation, attempted to improve its tactical position.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Berdychi and Pervomaiske. The enemy, supported by aviation, tried to dislodge Ukrainian positions. On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions against repeated enemy assaults in the areas of Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Velyka Novosilka, Urozhaine, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses over 25 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy forces attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 4 times in the area of Staromayorske and northwest of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro and attacked their positions 4 times over the past day.

General conclusion:

• Since March 29th, Russian forces have refrained from offensive actions on the Kupyansk direction and have generally decreased the frequency of assaults in this area, prioritizing the restoration of combat readiness. Meanwhile, on the Lyman direction last week, the enemy carried out up to 16 assaults per day.
• Russian forces have gained complete control over Vodyane, facilitating their advancement towards Pervomaiske.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 71 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Lyman direction, positional battles have been ongoing near Terny and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, units of the 98th Airborne Division advanced to Chasiv Yar through wooded areas within the Stupky-Holobovski-2 nature reserve and reached the line at a distance of approximately 650 meters to 1 kilometer from the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar.
• Positional battles persisted near Ivanivske, Bohdanivka, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, units of the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps advanced along Gagarin Street in Vodyane and reached the western outskirts of the village.
• Russian forces attempted to advance west of Tonenke. Positional battles were ongoing near Berdychi, Semenivka, Umanske, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian troops are tactically advancing within Novomykhailivka. Intense battles persist within and around the village. Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda.
• Berdyansk direction: combat engagements persisted east of Vodyane, near Velyka Novosilka, Urozhaine, and Staromayorske.
• Orikhiv direction: Russian forces have advanced west of Verbove. Positional battles were ongoing near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
• Kherson direction: Russian forces have made slight progress north of Kozachi Laheri, with ongoing battles occurring in Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships.

Changes in the enemy disposition: Not detected.

Escalation indicators:

• Deployment of a part of operational reserves to the Avdiivka direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations may include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will make efforts to stabilize the front line and ensure an operational pause for 3-4 months to rearm and replenish personnel to a minimum of 150-200 thousand servicemen.
• The enemy command will endeavor to cut off the Nevske-Torske road along the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south in the area of Terny and will attempt to eliminate the southern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.04.24 

Personnel – almost 443,660 people (+780);

Tanks – 6,998 (+12);

Armored combat vehicles – 13,350 (+29);

Artillery systems – 11,112 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,023 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 744 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,783 (+31);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,779 (+22);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,058 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 84 towns and villages and 69 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of April 2nd, Russian forces launched 10 Shahed kamikaze drones across Ukraine, with Ukrainian defense successfully intercepting 9 of them. However, debris from the intercepted drones caused two fires in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• During the past day, the Russian army shelled eight towns and villages in Kherson Oblast, resulting in two injuries. The shelling caused damage to one apartment building and four private houses.
• On Tuesday, April 2nd, Russian forces shelled Tokarivka village in Kherson Oblast, resulting in the death of a 79-year-old man.
• On Tuesday afternoon, Russian forces launched a missile strike on Dnipro city, resulting in injuries to 13 people, including 5 children, according to preliminary information. 8 people were hospitalized. A kindergarten, college, and enterprise were damaged.
• On the evening of April 2nd, Russian troops launched an attack on Novoosynove village in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast. The attack resulted in the death of one person, while an 11-year-old boy sustained injuries and was hospitalized.
• Since the beginning of 2024, 48 Ukrainian children have been successfully repatriated from the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast.
• The Russians have produced a video (in Ukrainian language) with professional actors aimed at undermining mobilization efforts in Ukraine. Pro-Russian channels are actively disseminating this content. According to reports from Russian opposition outlets “Agency” and “Mediazona,” the actors featured in the video are professionals who have previously appeared in Russian television shows.

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