Russia’s war on Ukraine. 03.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 Russian attack in the area of Synkivka, where the enemy, supported by aviation, attempted to breach the defense. On the Lyman direction, they repelled10 enemy attacks in the area of Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 6 Russian attacks in the areas of Spirne and Klishchiivka, where the enemy attempted to improve their tactical position.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks in the areas of Berdychi, Semenivka, Umanske, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske, where the enemy, supported by aviation, attempted to dislodge Defense Forces from their positions. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the areas of Novomykhailivka and Urozhaine, where the enemy attempted to breach the defense 24 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 4 times in the area of Staromayorske, Robotyne, and northwest of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro and attacked their positions 8 times over the past day.

General conclusion:

• The Russian military command, having approximately 950 cruise missiles at its disposal, seeks to prevent their stockpile from falling below 900 units, which will temporarily result in a pause in missile strikes. During April, around 40 Kh-101 cruise missiles could be produced. By the end of the month, the Russian Aerospace Forces will have up to 90 air-launched cruise missiles to carry out 2-3 major missile strikes.
• Russian forces are massing reserves on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar in preparation for an onward advance.
• Unfavorable lowland terrain hampers Russian attacks in the vicinity of Robotyne.
• Russia has practically completed the construction of a railway branch line from Rostov-on-Don in the Krasnodar Krai to the occupied Crimea via Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 75 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles persisted in the vicinity of Synkivka.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced to the south of Bilohorivka. Positional battles took place in the area of Terny.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces advanced near Bohdanivka. Units of the 331st Airborne Assault Regiment of the 98th Airborne Assault Division and the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade are approximately 640 meters from the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. Positional battles took place in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, New York, and Pivdenne.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the enemy advanced west of Berdychi, the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade advanced in southern Semenivka, the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division and the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps advanced 1 km west of Tonenke towards Umanske, and the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade advanced near Pervomaiske. Positional battles occurred in the area of Nevelske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, positional battles took place in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka.
• On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles persisted near Mykilske, Velyka Novosilka, Staromayorske, and Urozhaine.
• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles took place near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove. Units of the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army maintain positions in southern part of Robotyne. Near Verbove, the 247th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division is conducting an attack.
• On the Kherson direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in Krynky. Russian forces cannot use armored vehicles to storm Krynky due to their significant losses. Russian forces are rotating units from east to south of Ukraine to compensate for personnel losses.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships.

Changes in the enemy disposition: Not detected.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations may include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will make efforts to stabilize the front line and ensure an operational pause for 3-4 months to rearm and replenish personnel to a minimum of 150-200 thousand servicemen.
• The enemy command will endeavor to cut off the Nevske-Torske road along the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south in the area of Terny and will attempt to eliminate the southern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.04.24 

Personnel – almost 444,370 people (+710);

Tanks – 7,009 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 13,368 (+18);

Artillery systems – 11,142 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,025 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 745 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,813 (+30);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,796 (+17);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,059 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 100 towns and villages and 151 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• According to President Zelensky, in March alone, Russian aggressors launched over 400 rockets of various types, more than 600 “Shahed” drones, and over 3,000 guided aerial bombs against Ukraine. This campaign of terror affects numerous cities and villages throughout Ukraine, with Russia targeting frontline areas and border communities in particular.
• During the night of April 3rd, Russian forces launched 4 “Shahed” drones over Ukraine, all of which were successfully destroyed.
• On April 2nd, three residents of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, were injured in a Russian attack. Additionally, in Kharkiv Oblast, the 11-year-old boy who was injured during the Russian shelling of Novoosinove village in Kupyansk district on April 2nd, passed away in the hospital.
• On the morning of April 3, Russian occupiers launched a rocket attack on the Krasnopilska community in Sumy Oblast, resulting in one fatality and injuries to two others, including a three-year-old child.
• After the enemy’s large-scale attacks on March 22 and 29, Ukraine’s biggest energy company DTEK lost 80% of its generating capacity.
• In Kharkiv, 115,000 consumers are still without electricity due to scheduled outages, while industrial power supply is limited in Kryvyi Rih. However, energy operators have activated one thermal power plant unit overnight, and weather conditions favor the active operation of solar and wind power stations.
• Seven additional children and their families have fled the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, according to Dmytro Lubinets, the Commissioner for Human Rights of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Families with teenage boys have escaped the occupied areas to prevent their sons from being conscripted into the Russian army.
• 44 nations signed the political declaration of the conference “Restoring Justice for Ukraine” in The Hague. The declaration supports the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression and initiatives to utilize frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine.

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