Russia’s war on Ukraine. 07.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 Russian attacks in the area of Terny, where the enemy tried to breach Ukrainian defenses. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 14 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Spirne, Bohdanivka, and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks in the areas of Novokalynove, Berdychi, and Netaylove, where the enemy tried to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Novomykhailivka and Heorhiivka, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach the defense 21 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian positions twice in the areas of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro  and conducted 5 unsuccessful attacks.

General conclusion: 

• Last week, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled intensive enemy attacks across the entire line of contact, despite the persistent material resource constraints.
• The enemy’s command on the Kramatorsk direction is attempting to create conditions for bypassing and enveloping Kramatorsk from the southeast and reaching the vicinity of Kostiantynivka.
• The enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping command is focusing its efforts on capturing Chasiv Yar and taking control of the Klishchiivka – Andriivka line.
• Russian assaults near Robotyne and Verbove constitute localized offensives aimed at reclaiming previously lost position.
• The enemy is actively trying to break through to Chasiv Yar from the east, attacking through the wooded terrain stretching between the town and Ivanivske. The pace of their advancement suggests that the aggressor might achieve this objective by the end of spring or the beginning of summer.
• The simultaneous execution of two offensive operations on the Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk operational-tactical directions, dispersed geographically, will pose growing challenges for the adversary’s command as events progress and will demand increased allocation of resources.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 57 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks near Terny and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction the situation remains quite challenging in the Kramatorsk area. Despite losses, the enemy continues intensive attacks and assaults.
• In the area of Bohdanivka, two battalions of the 7th Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade from the so-called Volunteer Assault Corps, in coordination with units from the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division, are attempting to fully seize the village and break through towards Kalynivka.
• The 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, in coordination with the 217th and 299th Airborne Regiments of the 98th Airborne Division, the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army, are storming the Defense Forces positions in Ivanivske and its flanks, advancing along the O0506 road towards the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar between Bohdanivka and Ivanivske.
• In the area of Klishchiivka and Andriivka, the main forces of the 3rd Army Corps – the 6th Motorized Rifle Division, the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and separate units of the 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are operating. They are attempting to bypass Klishchiivka from the north, exerting simultaneous pressure from the front east of the village and east of Andriivka, displacing Defense Forces units beyond the Siversky Donets – Donbas Canal.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced southwest of Umanske, to the center of Pervomaiske, and penetrated further into the northern part of Berdychi. In the southern and central parts of Semenivka, they cleared the forests between Tonenke and Vodyane, attempting to push back units of the “Tavria” OSG from Pervomaiske and advance towards Umanske. They also conducted an airstrike on the bridge over the Durna River near Umanske. Battles also took place near Novokalynove, Orlivka, Nevelske, Yasnobrodivka, and Netaylove.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces reached the northern outskirts of Novomykhailivka and advanced further west to the center of Novomykhailivka. Positional battles were ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Kostiantynivka.
• On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles continued near Staromayorske.
• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles were ongoing near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• On the Bakhmut direction, forces of the 2nd and 3rd Army Corps, along with several paramilitary formations of the so-called “Volunteer Assault Corps,” reinforced by the groupings of the Russian Airborne Forces and units of the 8th Combined Arms Army, are active. The 1st Army Corps, the 20th Motorized Rifle Division, and a part of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army are engaged in combat operations on the Kurakhove direction.
• On the Kramatorsk direction (excluding the Siversk), combat operations are conducted by a grouping consisting of 15 brigades, 14 regiments, and 13 separate battalions (mostly units of the “Bars” formation and paramilitary groups). Two motorized rifle regiments are held in reserve of the first echelon.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, 10 brigades, 23 regiments and 14 separate battalions of the enemy’s “Center” grouping are engaged in combat.
• The 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army is engaged in combat operations southeast of Umanske. Units of the private military company “Yastreb” (created by Gazprom) are conducting combat operations near Semenivka, and the “Vega” unit of the 24th Separate SOF Brigade is active on the Avdiivka direction.
• The 105th Rifle Regiment of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps is engaged in combat operations in Novomykhailivka.

Escalation indicators:

• The redeployment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army from the Lyman direction to the Kupyansk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations could include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
• In the near future, the enemy will resume active offensive operations on the Kupyansk direction, particularly in the area of Synkivka and along the Kupyansk-Svatove road.
• The command of the enemy’s “Center” operational grouping will endeavor to cut off the Nevske-Torske road along the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south in the area of Terny and will attempt to eliminate the southern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
• The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to secure an advantageous starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the onset of summer.
• The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, 2nd Army Corps, and 106th Airborne Division will make efforts to eliminate the Siversk salient and set conditions for the encirclement of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the southeast.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.04.24  

Personnel – almost 447,520 (+820); 

Tanks – 7,074 (+17); 

Armored combat vehicles – 13,551 (+54); 

Artillery systems – 11,316 (+54);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,036 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 749 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 15,071 (+79);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 8,956 (+61);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,064 (+4);

Boats/ships – 27 (0)

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 128 towns and villages and 110 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night, Russian forces launched another assault on Ukraine, deploying 17 “Shahed” UAVs and firing two missiles, specifically a guided Kh-31 air-to-surface missile and an “Iskander-M” ballistic missile. All the UAVs involved in the attack were successfully intercepted and destroyed by the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces, but the missiles were not.
• Attacks on Kharkiv continue. Russian forces launched two separate attacks with “Shahed” drones on Kharkiv during the night of April 7, causing injuries to three individuals. Additionally, around 11:45, they targeted the residential area of the Shevchenkivskyi district, resulting in five civilians sustaining injuries. The strikes inflicted damage on at least 13 high-rise buildings, private residences, educational facilities, cafes, dormitories, a hotel, and vehicles.
• During the night of April 7th, the Russian army dropped a bomb on a residential high-rise building in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in the death of an 85 year old woman.
• During the overnight extensive drone attack in Kharkiv Oblast, one of the civilian infrastructures damaged was a high-voltage power grid facility operated by “Ukrenergo.” As a result, the “Ukrenergo” dispatch center is compelled to escalate the number and duration of emergency power outages in Kharkiv and the Kharkiv Oblast today.
• On the morning of April 7th, Russian forces shelled the front-line town of Hulyaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and killed three civilians. Two men and a woman died under the rubble of their own house, hit by a Russian projectile. Another attack in the middle of the day injured two civilians. 
• According to the published video, Russian occupiers shot Ukrainian prisoners of war near the occupied village of Krynky in Kherson Oblast.
• The “Ukrenergo” repair teams have successfully repaired and reinstated the operational status of the 330 kV high-voltage overhead line, which serves as a backup power source for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. This line sustained damage during the Russian shelling on April 4, as reported by the press service of the NEC “Ukrenergo”.

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