Russia’s war on Ukraine. 09.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 Russian attacks in the area of Terny, where the enemy, supported by aviation, tried to breach Ukrainian defenses. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 14 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Klishchiivka, Andriivka and Stupochky. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks in the areas of Berdychi, Umanske, Nevelske, where the enemy, supported by aviation, tried to dislodge the Defense Forces from their positions. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses over 26 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 2 times in the area of Staromayorske and northwest of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro. Over the past day the occupation forces launched 6 unsuccessful attacks.

General conclusion: 

• During the past week, the enemy intensified attacks along the entire line of contact on the Avdiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Berdyansk directions.
• The immediate objective of the enemy’s “Center” Operational Grouping is to advance west as deeply as possible towards Selydove and Pokrovsk.
• On the left flank, the enemy’s “Center” Operational Grouping is attempting to break through to Umanske and reach the bank of the Karlivsky Reservoir along the Yasnobrodivka – Netaylove line.
• There is a certain imbalance within the “Center” Operational Grouping, with a relatively small number of tanks compared to a large quantity of artillery.
• The enemy’s 41st Combined Arms Army has been moved to the second echelon, where it is actively replenishing personnel, weapons and military equipment.
• The intention of the “South” Operational Grouping to break through Chasiv Yar towards Kostiantynivka serves an indirect indication of the “Center” Operational Grouping’s preparation for an operation to encircle Toretsk.
• The total strength of the “West”, “South”, and “Center” Operational Groupings is approximately 300,000 personnel, exceeding the size of the Russian invasion force in February 2022.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 56 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Lyman direction, enemy failures of the in the areas of Terny and Yampolivka forced their military command to increase the intensity of bombing raids on these villages. The enemy infantry widely employs motorcycles, quad bikes, and golf carts.
• Russian forces slightly advanced southwest of Bilohorivka. Positional battles continued near Terny.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy captured positions on the southern outskirts of Ivanivske, attacked from Orlivka across the Durna River, unsuccessfully attempted to advance towards Umanske, and moved forward to the southwestern outskirts of Bohdanivka.
• Positional battles persisted in the areas of Spirne, Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Fedorivka, Rozdolivka, Vesele, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy struck positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Berdychi area with thermobaric munitions.
• Russian forces reached the Berdychi-Pervomaiske line and are advancing towards Netaylove and Umanske, attempting to break through between Berdychi and Semenivka towards Novopokrovske and Novoselivka Persha.
• The 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army is attempting to advance towards Berdychi-Novopokrovske, advancing both through Berdychi and south of it. The 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army is attacking in the same direction through Semenivka and south of Orlivka, steadily intensifying its efforts. The 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army, supported by the 428^th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 6th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, is attempting to break through to Umanske, attacking in the directions of Tonenke-Umanske and Orlivka-Umanske. The 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps is advancing towards Pervomaiske-Netaylove, attempting to move north of the Staroavdiivskyy reservoir. The 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps is consolidating its position in Nevelske to secure the left flank of the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, which is advancing towards Netaylove.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian attacks with groups of up to platoon allowed the enemy to advance into fields north of Novomykhailivka. Positional battles continued in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda.
• On the Berdyansk direction, localized positional battles were ongoing near Staromayorske.
• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles were ongoing near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 3 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 20 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 98th and 106th Airborne Divisions and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Northern Fleet are engaged in combat actions west and northeast of Bakhmut.
• On the Berdyansk direction, combat actions involve the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army, the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army, the 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Army, and the 1171st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army.
• The 328th Airborne Regiment of the 104th Airborne Division conducts combat actions near Krynky.
• The enemy’s “Center” Operational Grouping on the Avdiivka direction comprises up to 87,000 personnel, up to 340 tanks, 720 armored combat vehicles, up to 880 artillery guns and mortars, up to 250 multiple rocket launchers, and 8 operation-tactical missile systems.
• In the rear of the “Center” Operational Grouping, the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army is being reformed into a motorized rifle division in the area north of Yasynuvata.

Escalation indicators:

• The repositioning of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army from the Lyman direction to the Kupyansk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations could include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
• The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.
• The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, 2nd Army Corps, and 106th Airborne Division will make efforts to eliminate the Siversk salient and set conditions for the encirclement of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the southeast.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.04.24  

Personnel – almost 449,250 (+850); 

Tanks – 7,110 (+23); 

Armored combat vehicles – 13,620 (+45); 

Artillery systems – 11,386 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,039 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 753 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 15,181 (+71);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,033 (+37);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,065 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0)

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 71 towns and villages and 96 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• The Ukrainian Air Force destroyed all 20 “Shahed” drones that Russia used to attack Ukraine overnight. Russia also launched four S-300 surface-to-air guided missiles from the occupied Donetsk Oblast.
• As of the 2 p.m. on April 9, the number of civilians wounded as a result of the Russian strike on a family hostel in Poltava Oblast on the evening of April 8 had risen to 16, including 4 children.
• On April 9th, Russian troops targeted the center of Kharkiv twice with precision-guided aerial bombs, resulting in injuries to four people.
• As the result of Russian bombardments in Donetsk Oblast on Tuesday, April 9th, one person was killed, and three others wounded. Two more individuals may be trapped under debris from a structure in Kostyantynivka, destroyed by an aerial bomb.
• Russian forces shelled the city of Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast with artillery fire, resulting in the death of a woman.
• On April 9th, Russian forces attacked a coastal recreational area in Odesa Oblast, likely using the “Iskander-M” ballistic missile. The consequences of the strike are currently being clarified.
• During the day on Tuesday, April 9th, the Russian forces launched strikes on an industrial zone in Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in injuries to two civilians.
• During the night of April 9, debris from the downed “Shahed” drones in Lviv Oblast damaged a critical infrastructure object, causing a fire, which was promptly extinguished. All life support systems in the region are operating normally.
• During the night, the enemy attacked a high-voltage substation in Poltava Oblast, resulting in a fire on the premises. The fire was extinguished by the State Emergency Service, and there were no casualties. However, there is damage to the equipment.
• On April 9th, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported a drone attack by Russian forces on the training center located on the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. “This time there is no direct threat to nuclear safety, but the latest incident again underscores an extremely serious situation,” noted IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi.
• The Office of the Prosecutor General has initiated 27 criminal proceedings regarding the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian forces, involving the murder of 54 Ukrainian defenders.

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