Russia’s war on Ukraine. 11.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks in the area of Terny where the enemy tried to breach Ukrainian defenses. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 23 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Vyimka, Rozdolivka, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, where the enemy tried to dislodge the Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks in the areas of Keramik, Berdychi, Umanske, Netaylove, and Pervomaiske. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 16 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 1 time in the area of Staromayorske.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 6 unsuccessful attacks on their positions.

General conclusion: 

• Russian forces currently outweight the Ukrainian Defense Forces in artillery along the front line by a ratio of 5 to 1.
• If Russian forces keep up their current pace of missile and air strikes, Ukraine will likely run out of guided anti-aircraft missiles needed to defend cities and critical infrastructure.
• More restructuring of Ukrainian air defense to protect Kharkiv will involve shifting existing forces and resources, further weakening its capabilities and allowing the enemy to exploit the weakened Ukrainian air defense elsewhere.
• Russian forces are ramping up their use of laser-guided artillery rounds known as “Krasnopil” due to increased production and a surge in Russian reconnaissance drone activity on the battlefield.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy is deploying units and divisions from the under-strength 27th Motorized Rifle Division to bolster their efforts, as there are no other reserves available at the required combat readiness level.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 55 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Kyslivka, Ivanivka, and Andriivka. The 47th Tank Division of the 6th Tank Army completed its regrouping from the Lyman direction to the Kupyansk direction and is concentrating on the Synkivka – Petropavlivka direction. The 347th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 26th Tank Regiment took up positions between Pershotravneve and Yahidne.
• On the Lyman direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Terny, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka. In the fighting near Terny, the enemy lost between 102 and 107 armored vehicles between December 10, 2023 and April 10, 2024.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces advanced approximately 2 km deeper into Vyimka. Positional battles took place east of Siversk near Verkhnyokamianske, southeast of Siversk near Vyimka, and south of Siversk near Rozdolivka, Bohdanivka, Novyi, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
• Russian troops captured Ivanivske and continued their advance east of Chasiv Yar. They pushed further west of Ivanivske along the T0504 highway from Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar and approached the eastern outskirts of Hryhorivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces withdrew from positions northeast of Kalynivka.
• The following units are on the attack:
  • the 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps is attacking north of Vesele,
  • the 106th Airborne Division is engaged around Soledar – Siversk.
  • the 98th Airborne Division and 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are attacking Chasiv Yar.
  • the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps are attacking near Bohdanivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have made small gains northeast of Berdychi, moved forward south of Novokalynove, advanced 1 km on the 720-meter front southeast of Umanske, reached the northern outskirts of Netaylove, pushed Ukrainian Defense Forces out of their positions in Semenivka, and now control up to 45% of the village. Positional battles occurred in the areas of Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Semenivka, Umanske, Pervomaiske, and Vodyane.
• The enemy command transferred the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army to the Berdychi area and the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps to the Novokalynove area.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy’s 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps conducted a series of assaults near Krasnohorivka using 15 IFVs and T-72 tanks, advancing to the center of the village and is currently engaged in combat near the Krasnohorivka brick factory. The enemy’s 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps advanced 280 meters deep and 550 meters along the front-line south of Novomykhailivka.
• Positional battles took place in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, and Vodyane.
• On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Staromayorske, Urozhayne, and Mykilske. the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army and the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Armyare engaged in combat operations near Vuhledar.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces made slight advancements northwest of Verbove. Positional battles persisted near Robotyne and to the northwest of Verbove.
• On the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck several Russian forward command posts during positional battles on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, particularly targeting the command post of the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army near Kakhovka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled several enemy attacks on their positions near Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 3 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 20 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The Russian Ministry of Defense has finished setting up the 49th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade and integrated it into the 58th Army. The brigade will be equipped with BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.
• The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, 2nd Army Corps, and 106th Airborne Division will make efforts to eliminate the Siversk salient and set conditions for the encirclement of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the southeast.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.04.24  

Personnel – almost 450,890 (+810); 

Tanks 7,137 (+5); 

Armored combat vehicles – 13,679 (+12); 

Artillery systems – 11,452 (+48);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,040 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 754 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 15,298 (+50);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,104 (+34);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,069 (+2);

Boats/ships – 27 (0)

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 13 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 115 towns and villages and 155 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the night of April 11, 2024, the Russian military launched a combined strike with missiles of various types and attack UAVs mainly targeting Lviv Oblast. In total, the enemy used 82 means of air attack, 20 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, 6 Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” aeroballistic missiles, 12 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, 40 “Shahed-131/136” type attack UAVs, 4 guided air missiles Kh-59. Ukrainain Air Defense forces destroyed 57 air targets, namely 16 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, 39 Shahed-131/136 type UAVs, and 2 Kh-59 guided air missiles.
• During the night of April 11, Russian military forces attacked the energy infrastructure, including generation facilities and transmission systems, in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, and Kyiv Oblasts.
• At least 10 missiles were launched on critical infrastructure in the city of Kharkiv and in Kharkiv Oblast, leaving part of the city without electricity supply. As a result of the attack, the thermal power plant that supplies energy to Kharkiv was damaged, along with the complete destruction of the transformer substation. Nevertheless, the city metro and electric ground transportation continues to run.
• The massive Russian missile attack completely destroyed the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant early in the morning of April 11th. All the workers who were on duty during the attack are alive. The strikes caused a large-scale fire in the turbine hall. The loss of the plant means that during peak hours of the day, Ukraine will have less internal capacity to meet consumption demands.
• During the night, Russian cruise missiles of various classes and UAVs attacked two critical energy infrastructure objects in Lviv Oblast: a gas distribution infrastructure object in the Stryi district and a power substation in the Chervonohrad district. The functioning of the Lviv Oblast life support systems was not affected.
• On April 11th, Russian forces launched a ballistic missile attack on Mykolaiv, resulting in the deaths of 4 people and injuring 5 others.
• On April 11th, after 4:00 PM, the Russian military launched an aerial strike using guided aerial bombs on the critical infrastructure of the Sumy city – the local thermal power plant. According to preliminary information, there are no casualties. The consequences of the strike are being clarified.
• The Kharkiv Oblast Defense Council has decided to enforce the evacuation of families with children from 47 frontline villages in the Oblast.

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