Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 29 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Vyimka, Rozdolivka, Klishchiivka, Verkhnyokamianske, and Ivanivske where the enemy, supported by the aviation, tried to improve its tactical position. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 enemy attacks in the areas of Novokalynove, Umanske, Pervomaiske, and Netailove, where the enemy, supported by the aviation, tried to dislodge the Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Urozhaine, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 26 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 5 times in the area of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 7 unsuccessful attacks on their positions.

General conclusion: 

• On the Kupyansk direction, some units of the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet were withdrawn to base areas to restore combat readiness. The enemy command had to shift the 47th Motorized Rifle Division from the Lyman direction, resulting in a halt in the advance on both operational directions.
• On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy depleted its available reserves but failed to achieve its objective. This might affect its offensive campaign in 2024.
• Most of the enemy reserves are concentrated on the Kupyansk (up to 5 regiments), Pokrovsk (up to 3 regiments), Kramatorsk, and Vremiivka (2 regiments each) directions, possibly indicating preparations for or execution of local offensive actions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 78 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka.
• Russian forces advanced west of Ivanivske along the T0504 highway from Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar. Units of the 98th Airborne Division continued to attack the Kanal neighborhood on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar and near Bohdanivka. Positional battles persisted near Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian troops have advanced 2.5 kilometers into the territory between Yasnobrodivka and Umanske, reaching the southeastern outskirts of Umansky and controlling nearly half of Semenivka. Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Novokalynove, Keramik, Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Umanske, Semenivka, Pervomaiske, and Netailove.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have advanced within the limits of Novomykhailivka. Positional battles have been ongoing near Pobieda, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka.
• On the Berdyansk direction, Russian forces recently made slight advances south of Urozhaine.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled several Russian attacks near Staromayorske.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces have made minor advances on the western outskirts of Robotyne. Positional battles have been ongoing near Robotyne and to the northwest of Verbove.
• On the Kherson direction, Russian forces have advanced in Krynky and initiated actions in the southern part of Veliky Potyomkin Island.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 3 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 20 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Assessment of enemy reserves on its “Southwest Theater of Military Operations”:
  • 15-16 regiments (motorized infantry, infantry, airborne assault, marine infantry, territorial troops, mobilization reserves, tank units, etc.),
  • 16-17 battalions (including engineering-sapper, medical-sanitary, special purpose, railway, etc.),
  • 3-4 units (BARS, “Storm,” other paramilitary).
  • Reserve strength – up to 61,000 personnel,
  • 45 tanks (mostly undergoing repairs),
  • 310 armored combat vehicles (up to 40% requiring repair),
  • 310 artillery pieces, mortars, 10 MLRS.
• The enemy has the ability to swiftly deploy its missile forces grouping by transferring 25-28 launcher units of tactical missile systems to the operational zone. Readiness time for reserves ranges from 2 hours to 3 days.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.
• The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, 2nd Army Corps, and 106th Airborne Division will make efforts to eliminate the Siversk salient and set conditions for the encirclement of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the southeast.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.04.24  

Personnel – almost 451,730 (+840); 

Tanks 7,146 (+9); 

Armored combat vehicles – 13,698 (+19); 

Artillery systems – 11,486 (+36);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,042 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 755 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 15,339 (+41);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,161 (+57);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,087 (+18);

Boats/ships – 27 (0)

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces attacked 13 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 118 towns and villages and 123 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Overnight on April 11th, the enemy launched an attack using 17 Shahed-type UAVs and guided X-59 aviation missiles. Ukrainian Air Force and mobile defense units successfully neutralized 16 out of the 17 Shahed UAVs launched.
• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, in the Kryvyi Rih district, a fire broke out at an energy facility due to debris from a downed drone.
• On April 12th, during daylight hours, the Russian military targeted the residential area of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast with a missile strike. The missile hit a five-story building, resulting in fires on balconies from the 2nd to the 5th floor. Initial reports indicate three casualties from the shelling.
• At 14:53, Russian forces carried out an aerial assault using guided bombs on Sumy’s civilian infrastructure. Initial reports suggest no civilian casualties.
• On April 12th, enemy forces launched an attack on the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast. One casualty and two injuries were reported due to Russian shelling.
• As of the morning of April 12th, there are power outages affecting 399 towns and villages due to combat operations in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson Oblasts. In Kharkiv Oblast, emergency power cuts affect around 210,000 consumers. Consumption limits for industrial users remain in place in Kryvyi Rih.
• Due to enemy attacks on critical infrastructure in the neighboring Mykolaiv Oblast, there is a power outage throughout the liberated part of Kherson Oblast. This has resulted in water supply system failures.
• As a result of repatriation efforts, another 99 bodies of fallen defenders have been returned to Ukraine on April 12.

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