Russia’s war on Ukraine. 15.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Novyi, Chasiv Yar, New York, and Klishchiivka. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks in the areas of, Novobakhmutivka, Umanske, Novokalynove, Pervomaiske, and Netaylove. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 16 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 9 times in the area of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 4 unsuccessful attacks on their positions.

General conclusion: 

• The Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions are the most active sectors on the front line.
• The Russian military command’s objective is to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9th, that is within 3-4 weeks. The Russian command believes their forces can take the town faster than they did with Bakhmut in May 2023 or Avdiivka in February 2024, aiming to exploit the critical shortage of ammunition in the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
• Russian forces storm Chasiv Yar and adjacent areas with small assault groups practically around the clock.
• Russian troops rotate units on the Kamiansk-Vuhledar line, shifting their main thrust eastwards towards the area of Velyka Novosilka.
• An increase in Russian assaults near Velyka Novosilka is observed, while there’s a decrease near Robotyne. The enemy does not use heavy weaponry during these attacks.
• All 15 ballistic missiles and 7 out of 44 cruise missiles launched by Russian forces against Ukrainian energy facilities on the night of March 21-22 were successfully overcame Ukrainian air defense and hit their targets.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 54 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced east of Bilohorivka. Russian troops made slight progress towards the eastern outskirts of Terny.
• The Air Force of the Ukrainian Defense Forces hit the command post of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping in Luhansk with a Storm Shadow cruise missile.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces have advanced northeast of the Kanal district and along the forest line southeast of Chasiv Yar and moved north of Ivanivske. Combat continued near the Novyi district in the southeast of Chasiv Yar, near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Opytne, and New York.
• Positional battles persisted in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Spirne, Vesele, and Rozdolivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have recently advanced east of Novobakhmutivka towards Yasnobrodivka. The 114th Separate Motorized Brigade of the 1st Army Corps attacked near Semenivka. Combat persisted near Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove, Berdychi, Umanske, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, and Nevelske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have made slight advancements along Timiryazeva Street in the southwest of Novomykhailivka.
• Russian troops advanced westward along Central Street in the center of Novomykhailivka. Positional battles continued near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka.
• On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove. The commander of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army has been relieved of duty.
• On the Kherson direction, the Russian military command relieved the commander of the 18th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, Lieutenant General A. Marzoyev, for failing to dislodge the Ukrainian Defense Forces from their bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carriers. The total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 58th Separate SOF Battalion of the 1st Army Corps is engaged in combat operations near Chasiv Yar. The 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade is advancing near Ivanivske. The “Alexander Nevsky” Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade of the “Volunteer Assault Corps” is operating near Klishchiivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.
• The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, 2nd Army Corps, and 106th Airborne Division will make efforts to eliminate the Siversk salient and set conditions for the encirclement of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the southeast.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
• The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.04.24  

Personnel – almost 454,420 (+770); 

Tanks 7,180 (+6); 

Armored combat vehicles – 13,796 (+31); 

Artillery systems – 11,593 (+41);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,046 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 758 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 15,510 (+51);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,266 (+31);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,092 (+3);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 104 towns and villages and 155 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the evening of April 14, Russian forces launched an artillery attack on the city of Siversk in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in the deaths of four individuals.
• In Kherson Oblast over the past day, April 14th, three people were wounded due to attacks by Russian forces. Three high-rise buildings and 15 private homes were damaged, with hits on critical infrastructure and gas pipelines reported.
• On April 15, during the day, Russian forces struck Poltava and Kropyvnytskyi. In Kropivnytskiy no victims of damage were reported. In Poltava the consequences are being clarified.
• At 2 PM on April 15, Russian forces launched a guided bomb attack on the village of Lukyantsi in the Lyptsi community of Kharkiv Oblast. As a result of the strike on an educational facility, two people were killed, and four people were wounded.
• At present, Ukraine’s power grid is running smoothly and in balance. However, due to network limitations on the transmission system operator’s lines, there are still scheduled outages in Kharkiv Oblast today.
• Since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, 91 State Emergency Service personnel have lost their lives, and 351 have been wounded in shelling while on duty. This figure encompasses not only rescue workers dealing with the aftermath of Russian strikes and clearing debris but also pyrotechnic units.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent