Russia’s war on Ukraine. 19.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Torske and Yampolivka four times. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar, Novyi, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 enemy attacks in the areas of Novokalynove, Ocheretyne, Berdychi, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Heorhiivka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and Urozhaine where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 20 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 4 times in the area of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 11 unsuccessful attacks on their positions.

General conclusion: 

• Judging by the pace of the enemy’s advance, it appears unlikely they will reach Lyman and Shandryholov before the onset of summer. This suggests they may not successfully conclude their shaping operation and create favorable conditions for an offensive from the northeast towards Sloviansk by then.
• On the Lyman direction, the 20th Combined Arms Army is attempting to break through towards Borova and displace the Ukrainian Defense Forces west of the Chorny Zherebets River.
• Near Ocheretyne, the adversary is resorting to frontal assaults combined with artillery barrages and air strikes without prior flanking advances.
• Russian forces initiated attacks to pin down the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the flanks of Ocheretyne, engaging Ukrainian troops near Berdychi, Novokalynove, and Keramik. This aims to facilitate a relatively swift advance towards Ocheretyne.
• The enemy’s tactic of trying to force Ukrainian units out of the areas tactically inconvenient for the enemy leads to exceedingly slow rates of advance and results in excessive casualties.
• The adversary’s attempts to encircle Chasiv Yar from three directions have not yielded the desired results for the Russian military command, with the actions of their powerful flanking groups proving largely ineffective so far.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 86 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Lyman direction, positional battles persisted in the areas of Serhiivka, Nevske, Terny, and Yampolivka, where the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to storm the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps unsuccessfully attacked near Bilohorivka.
• The enemy command committed units of the 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment from the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division to the Serhiivka – Pershotravneve direction (southeast of Nadia village) but achieved no success. Advanced units of the 254th and 283rd Motorized Rifle Regiments from the 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 20th Army attacking the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces east and southeast of Terny with the aim to cut off the Torske – Nevske road between Terny and Yampolivka, but failed.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy is intensifying efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forward units from the Bilohorivka area and is attempting to break through to the Zvanivka area from the southeast to create conditions for advancing towards Siversk. Southeast of Rozdolivka, the 51st and 119th Airborne Regiments of the 106th Airborne Division have displaced the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from four detachment positions. South of Vyimka, the 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade has advanced several hundred meters but suffered significant losses. Attempts by the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the Bilohorivka area to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from positions west of the village yielded no results. Efforts by the 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division in the areas of Spine and south of Fedorivka did not yield the desired results for the enemy. The 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade halted its advance on the Zolotarivka – Verkhnyokamianske direction.
• In the Chasiv Yar area, the enemy launched simultaneous attacks along the Bogdanivka – Kalynivka axis, towards the eastern part of Chasiv Yar known as “Kanal,” along the T0504 road through the forest northwest of Ivanivske, passing through Ivanivske itself and between it and Klishchiivka, attempting to reach the Siversky Donets – Donbas Canal over a broad front. The 11th Separate Assault Brigade managed to advance northwest of Ivanivske, while the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division reached the “Kanal” district from the east.
• The enemy is suffering losses. The “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping (Siversk, Kramatorsk, Kurakhove directions), has fewer than 650 tanks and 1,850 armored fighting vehicles remaining, including those undergoing repairs within the Grouping’s maintenance units.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy has advanced near Ivanivka, entered the southeastern part of Novokalynove, pushed south and southwest of Novokalynove, and approached closer to Umanske and Netaylove. Fighting continues in Ocheretyne, Berdychi, and Krasnohorivka.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces have recaptured several previously lost positions in the western part of Berdychi.
• Positional battles are ongoing in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Semenivka, Yasnobrodivka, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have advanced to the west of Solodke towards Vuhledar. Positional battles are ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane.
• On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles occurred near Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continue near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka. The 56th Airborne Regiment of the 7th Airborne Division advanced 400 meters into Robotyne.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carriers. The total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.
• The Russian Black Sea Fleet is relocating its cruise missile-carrying ships, equipped with “Kalibr” missiles, from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea following attacks by Ukrainian naval drones.
• The loading of “Kalibr” cruise missiles onto the frigate “Admiral Grigorovich” at the Novorossiysk naval base indicates the deployment of the necessary infrastructure to support the redeployment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet assets to this naval base for an indefinite period.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The enemy’s command has engaged a significant portion of the 2nd Army Corps in the Siverskyi bulge area. This includes the 6th, 7th, and 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, as well as the 51st, 119th, and 137th Airborne Regiments of the 106th Airborne Division.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.
• In the Terny area, the adversary is regrouping forces from the 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Army to re-engage in offensive operations towards Yampolivka. This signifies an escalation of their efforts and a widening of the assault front.
• The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, 2nd Army Corps, and 106th Airborne Division will make efforts to eliminate the Siversk salient and set conditions for the encirclement of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the southeast.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
• The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
• The command of “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping may respond asymmetrically to the actions of pro-Ukrainian Russian formations with raiding operations in the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts or simulate an “advance on Kharkiv” as part of the enemy’s offensive campaign on the theater of operations.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 19.04.24  

Personnel – almost 457,830 (+870); 

Tanks 7,205 (+9); 

Armored combat vehicles – 13,852 (+17); 

Artillery systems – 11,658 (+21);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,046 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 762 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 15,671 (+53);

Aircraft – 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,311 (+27);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,096 (+3);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 13 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 96 towns and villages and 181 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the night of April 19, while repelling a combined strike by the Russian army, Ukraine’s air defense forces shot down 15 missiles of various types, including 2 Kh-22 cruise missiles, and 14 attack drones. Overall, the Russians employed 36 aerial attack assets – 22 missiles of different types and 14 drones.
• During a mass missile attack early Friday morning, the enemy targeted civilian infrastructure objects belonging to Ukrzaliznytsia in Dnipro and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A five-story residential building in the city center of Dnipro was hit and partially destroyed. Additionally, an infrastructure object was damaged in Kryvyi Rih and there was an attack on Synelnykove.
• On April 19th, during the day, Russian forces launched a missile strike on the “Pivdennyy” seaport in Odesa Oblast. There are hits on port facilities, affecting not only Ukrainian but also Singapore-owned infrastructure. One person was injured.
• On April 19, at approximately 12:00 hours, enemy artillery targeted the center of Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast. The shelling resulted in one fatality and three wounded.
• On April 19, in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian forces attacked a fire truck while firefighters were extinguishing a fire from shelling. Noone was injured.
• Due to network restrictions on the operator’s transmission lines, scheduled power outages were implemented in Kharkiv Oblast and in Kryvyi Rih on April 18. They continue to apply. Emergency assistance was sought from Romania, Poland, and Slovakia. The amount of imported electricity accounted for approximately 3% of the daily consumption. As of the morning of April 19, emergency assistance from the transmission operators of these countries was still being utilized.

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