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Russia’s war on Ukraine. 21.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, twice attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 10 attacks on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 28 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Klishchiivka, Ivanivske and Novyi. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 32 enemy attacks in the areas of Semenivka, Novokalynove, Ocheretyne, Berdychi, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, Nevelske, and Oleksandropil. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, and Urozhaine where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 25 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 4 times in the area of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Over the past day the occupiers launched 3 unsuccessful attacks.

General conclusion: 

  • The shortage of artillery ammunition experienced by the Ukrainian Defense Forces allows Russian assault units to achieve minor tactical successes. The reduced capabilities of the Defense Forces’ air defense systems allow the enemy’s aviation to intensively attack Ukrainian defenses with guided air bombs.
  • The enemy is unlikely to achieve significant operational successes in the coming weeks but will increase the pace of advance in areas west of Avdiivka and near Chasiv Yar, where the Ukrainian defense appears unstable.
  • Russian forces are attempting to leverage their relatively significant tactical progress northwest of Avdiivka near Ocheretyne.
  • Russian forces are initiating a tactical pause on the Avdiivka direction except in the areas of Ocheretyne and Netaylove.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 115 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Lyman direction, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have advanced northeast of Bilohorivka. Positional battles have been ongoing near Tverdokhlibivka, Kreminna, Yampolivka, Terny, Torske, Dibrova, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Verkhnyokamianske and Spine.
  • Russian troops have advanced near Chasiv Yar along the T0504 highway northwest of Ivanivske and south of the “Novyi” district. Russian Aerospace Forces conduct airstrikes near Chasiv Yar. Battles have been ongoing near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Pivdenne.
  • A Ukrainian Defense Forces airstrike destroyed the Command Post of the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division in Bakhmut.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy’s 1st Army Corps forces advanced in the southeast part of Ocheretyne, establishing a small tactical foothold on the outskirts of the village. They have transferred there a significant amount of artillery and infantry from other areas along the Avdiivka direction, easing pressure on Berdychi and Umanske. However, the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps continues to conduct powerful assaults near Semenivka, controlling up to 75% of the village. Infantry is primarily used in these attacks, although the enemy is not short of armored combat vehicles. Russian forces have advanced near Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, north of Berdychi, near Umanske, and south of Pervomaiske. Battles are ongoing in the areas of Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Ocheretyne, Berdychi, Semenivka, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction Russian forces have advanced to the southeast of Heorhiivka. Positional battles are ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, and Vodyane. Russian aviation has struck Ukrainian positions near Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Staromayorske and Urozhaine. The 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet is engaged in combat near Staromayorske, while the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army operates southeast of Velyka Novosilka.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continue near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 3 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carriers. The total salvo is 20 cruise missiles.

Escalation indicators:

  • Over the past two days, the enemy has significantly increased the number of combat engagements along the entire frontline.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.
  • In the Terny area, the adversary is regrouping forces from the 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Army to re-engage in offensive operations towards Yampolivka. This signifies an escalation of their efforts and a widening of the assault front.
  • The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, 2nd Army Corps, and 106th Airborne Division will make efforts to eliminate the Siversk salient and set conditions for the encirclement of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the southeast.
  • The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
  • The command of “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping may respond asymmetrically to the actions of pro-Ukrainian Russian formations with raiding operations in the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts or simulate an “advance on Kharkiv” as part of the enemy’s offensive campaign on the theater of operations.
  • Russian forces will intensify missile and bomb strikes on transport routes and infrastructure in the operational and strategic rear of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, aiming to disrupt their logistics.
  • Before Ukraine receive assistance from partners, the enemy will utilize active aerial attacks against Ukrainian defenses to destroy fortifications, primarily focusing on defense nodes in the Chasiv Yar, Siversk, and Novomykhailivka directions of Russian military operations.
  • Ocheretyne is located at the intersection of Ukrainian defense lines, one of which Russian forces attacked after capturing Avdiivka in mid-February 2024, while another, prepared in advance, is positioned deeper in the operational depth as a subsequent defensive line further to the west. The enemy will have to pass through Ocheretyne and stabilize the northern flank of the Avdiivka direction before they can continue their tactical breakthrough against Ukrainian defenses in this area.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 21.04.24  

Personnel – almost 459,530 (+950); 

Tanks 7,229 (+16); 

Armored combat vehicles – 13,896 (+23); 

Artillery systems – 11,719 (+41);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,046 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 767 (+4);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 15,785 (+68);

Aircraft – 348 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,379 (+38);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,115 (+6);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 138 towns and villages and 157 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the past day, the Russian forces carried out 54 attacks in Sumy Oblast, with 283 explosions recorded. In one of the communities, 38 mines were deployed, while in another, a local resident was injured due to shelling.
  • In the afternoon of April 21, an explosion was heard in Odesa. Military officials later clarified that the Russian forces targeted the city with ballistic missiles, aiming at a transport-logistics object of the port infrastructure but did not specify if there were hits. 4 civilians were reported injured.
  • From the early morning of April 21, Russian forces simultaneously targeted several residential neighborhoods in Kherson with artillery fire, injuring an 81-year-old woman.
  • In the morning of April 21, at 8:30, Russian forces shelled the town of Ukrainsk in Donetsk Oblast with “Smerch” MLRS. As a result of the attack, a woman was killed, and four other locals were wounded.
  • Rescue teams have been working for the third day to eliminate the consequences of a missile strike on an agro-industrial terminal following a missile-drone strike carried out by the Russian army on the night of April 19 on infrastructure objects in the Odessa region.
  • Russian occupation authorities have delivered another batch of Russian propaganda to schools in the occupied territory of Luhansk Oblast. The materials include dictionaries containing terms related to “defense of traditional Russian spiritual and moral values, culture, and historical memory.” The terms deemed most important by the Russian Ministry of Education are included to convey to future generations the current meanings of expressions like “foreign agent,” “civil identity,” “Russian Cossacks,” “threat to national security,” and so on. This was reported by Artem Lysohor, the head of the Luhansk Oblast Military-Civil Administration.

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