Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 27.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 enemy attacks near Kyslivka, Berestove and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 14 times in the areas of Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Terny, south of Zarichne, and in the Serebriansk Forest. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Novy, Vyimka, Spirne, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 29 enemy attacks in the areas of Arkhanhelske, Keramik, Ocheretyne, Semenivka, Umanske, and Kalynove. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Prechystivka, and Urozhaine, where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 17 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 3 times in the areas of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 4 unsuccessful attacks.

General conclusion: 

  • Russian forces conduct attacks on Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka aiming to bypass Chasiv Yar and create conditions for the operational encirclement and capture of the city.
  • Enemy command is concentrating efforts to breach Ukrainian defenses east of Chasiv Yar, aiming to seize Chasiv Yar and pave the way for further advance towards the Kramatorsk agglomeration (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka-Kostyantynivka) by capturing key positions along the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal.
  • The situation in the area of Ocheretyne is becoming critical, and if current trends persist from April 15-17, the Ukrainian Defense Forces will need to withdraw 10-15 km to the Novooleksandrivka-Komyshivka-Karlivka Reservoir-Karlivka line. This retreat will lead to the loss of Netaylove, Karlivka, Novoselivka Persha, Umanske, and several other villages..
  • The successful enemy advancement in the Ocheretyne area is due to firepower and air superiority rather than numerical superiority.
  • The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade has pulled back from Semenivka, and “Tavriya” OSG has lost its reinforcement and supply capability along the Novoselivka Persha route, now under Russian artillery control.
  • The enemy effectively employs tactics to isolate critical areas of the battlefield.
  • “Tavriya” OSG units between Ocheretyne and Arkhanhelske do not have pre-prepared defensive positions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 94 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles continued near Kyslivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Druzhelyubivka, and Makiivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, positional battles continued near Terny, Zarichne, Torske, in the area of Serebriansk Forest, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles persisted in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Mykolaivka, Vyimka, and Spirne.
  • Combat operations took place near Bohdanivka, near the “Novyi” and “Kanal” neighborhoods, on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, near Ivanivske, near the Stupky-Holubivski Nature Reserve, Klishchiivka, and near Shumy.
  • Russian forces have concentrated slightly more personnel near Klishchiivka and launched powerful attacks near Bila Hora. In the area of Bila Hora, the enemy command is regrouping, accumulating ammunition, and actively demining the front line.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, in the past two days, the enemy has been pushing hard in the Ocheretyne area, with the 15th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades leading the charge. They’re not just consolidating their positions in the town but also striking west and south, aiming to wipe out Ukrainian Defense Forces north of Ocheretyne. They’ve pushed about 1 km west along the O0544 Ocheretyne – Hrodivka highway and to the north of Ocheretyne, backed by air strikes. The enemy is trying to widen the breach and move north, west, and south of Novobakhmutivka. Following MLRS strikes, units from the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army took Solovyove. They’re also targeting the positions of the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 425th Separate Assault Battalion “Skelia” near Novokalynove and pushing north. Using precise strikes, the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division and the 277th Separate Special Operations Battalion moved east towards Keramik. Meanwhile, the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps is holding Semenivka’s center. The enemy’s attack groups reached the outskirts of Arkhanhelske but were pushed back.
  • Fighting continued in the areas of Keramik, Umanske, Netaylove, and Nevelske.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG command deployed the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade north of the enemy breakthrough area. The 25th Separate Airborne Brigade holds positions to the west and south of Ocheretyne. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade maintains its positions in Berdychi, while the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade has retreated from Semenivka.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have advanced through the fields east of Krasnohorivka and breached Ukrainian defense in the area of Paraskoviivka. Battles have been ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, Russian forces have advanced up to 200 meters deep near Urozhaine. Positional battles were fought near Prechystivka, Urozhaine, and Staromayorske.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces have advanced northwest of Verbove. Positional battles were ongoing near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove. The Ukrainian Defense Forces intensified artillery shelling and drone strikes on Russian positions in this area.
  • On the Kherson direction, Russian forces have made slight advancements within Krynky on the left bank of the Kherson region amid ongoing positional battles in the area. Positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Krynky and Antonivsky Bridge.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carriers. The total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
    •  Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy is increasing efforts near Ocheretyne and aggressively assaulting the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.
  • The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
  • The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 27.04.24  

Personnel – almost 465,054 (+1124); 

Tanks 7,268 (+6); 

Armored combat vehicles – 13,971 (+14); 

Artillery systems – 11,905 (+38);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,049 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 775 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,019 (+35);

Aircraft – 348 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,485 (+24);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,124 (+5);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 129 towns and villages and 106 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night of April 27, Russian forces launched a combined missile strike against Ukraine with missiles of various types, 21 out of 34 missiles were intercepted by air defense forces.
  • The enemy attacked the Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv Oblasts. Russia attacked four thermal power plants owned by DTEK. The company said that the equipment of the facilities was seriously damaged and there were injured civilians.
  • Ukrainian air defense units destroyed 13 missiles over the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, spanning the districts of Dniprovsky, Kryvyi Rih, and Pavlohrad. In the Dniprovsky and Kryvyi Rih districts, energy facilities were damaged. There are disruptions in the water supply in Kryvyi Rih.
  • Two critical energy infrastructure objects were hit in the Stryi and Chervonohrad districts of Lviv Oblast, setting them on fire. There is currently no threat of power outages but people are asked not to use energy intensive devices during peak consumption hours.
  • Russian forces continue attacking Kharkiv. An attack during the night targeted a hospital in Saltivka district, a woman was injured and the hospital building damaged. A body was recovered from the ruble later in the day.
  • Around 13:00 near Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, a Russian FPV drone struck a freight truck. The civilian driver, aged 52, was injured, and his condition is currently critical.
  • As a result of enemy shelling on the village of Kozatske in Kherson Oblast on Saturday, three men were injured, with one of them in critical condition.

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