Russia’s war on Ukraine. 28.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks near Kyslivka, Berestove, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 14 times in the areas of Nevske, the Serebriansk Forest, and Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 Russian attacks in the areas of Spirne, Vyimka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Novy. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 35 enemy attacks in the areas of Novokalynove, Keramik, Umanske, and Netaylove. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Vodyane, Praskoviivka, and west of Pobieda, where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 13 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 2 times in the areas of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

General conclusion: 

• Russian forces prepare for a large-scale offensive operation at the end of May or in June, carrying out missile and aerial strikes on infrastructure and conducting shaping operations in Eastern Ukraine.
• Russian forces have the capability to achieve significant tactical gains in the area of Avdiivka and capture Chasiv Yar, but none of these attempts will escalate into operationally significant advances, let alone the collapse of Ukrainian defense in Donetsk Oblast.
• The pace of advance of the enemy’s 41st Combined Arms Army on the Avdiivka direction is higher than that of the 98th Airborne Division of the Russian Armed Forces near Chasiv Yar, as the Russian command is focused on exploiting the situation tactically disadvantageous for “Tavriya” OSG northwest of Avdiivka.
• The withdrawal of “Tavriya” OSG units towards Umanske and Netaylove was well-organized and executed.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces ceased the deployment of GLMRS on the battlefield due to GPS signal suppression by the enemy.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 88 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy has shifted to active offensive actions in the areas of Kyslivka, Tabaiivka, Berestove, and Stelmakhivka. Battles have been ongoing in the areas of Druzhelyubivka, Novoyehorivka, and Hrekivka.
• Forces of the 1st Tank Army are attempting to break through the Ukrainian defense in Kyslivka and gain control of the village, with the aim to encircle Kotlyarivka.
• On the Lyman direction, battles continued near Nevske, Terny, Zarichne, Bilohorivka, and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.
• On the Bakhmut direction, local positional battles were ongoing in the area of Spirne and Vyimka.
• Heavy fighting continues on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, where Russian forces are attempting to clear the wooded area east of the city, advance south of the Stupky-Holubivskyi reserve, and move parallel to the T0504 Bakhmut – Ivanivske – Kostyantynivka highway.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks near the “Novyi” neighborhood, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, in coordination with the “Arbat” unit (formerly part of the Wagner Private Military Company), after seizing Solovyove continues its advance west and south of the village. The enemy’s 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade controls Ocheretyne. Novokalynove is almost entirely under the control of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and units of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army. The 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 277th Rifle Battalion of the 1st Army Corps are advancing towards Keramik. Russian forces have deployed reserves, the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army, to break through Ukrainian defenses along the Novobakhmutivka-Ocheretyne line. The 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army is advancing near Arkhanhelske. The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps is advancing near Semenivka. Units of the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps are operating in the area of Pervomaiske-Netaylove.
• The 47th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade executed a tactical withdrawal from its positions following extensive aerial bombardment. However, it retains control over a portion of those positions on the western periphery of Berdychi, engaging in defensive operations against assaults by the adversary’s 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Despite sustaining significant casualties, the 74th Brigade swiftly reinforces its ranks from three reserve regiments. Meanwhile, the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade successfully fends off assaults launched by three enemy brigades targeting Krasnohorivka.
• Fighting continues near Arkhanhelske, Keramik, Semenivka, Ocheretyne, Umanske, and Netaylove.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have advanced into the center of Krasnohorivka, initiating operations to clear the brick factory. Combat engagements have been ongoing near Heorhiivka, Paraskeviivka, and Pobieda.
• The occupiers have gained full control over Novomykhailivka.
• On the Berdyansk direction, the enemy launched an assault from the southern direction of Urozhaine after four days of glide bomb strikes. They reached the outskirts of the village and advanced up to 400 meters inside of it.
• Russian forces attacked near Vodyane, Prechystivka, and Staromayorske.
• As a result of the strike on the Kuschevskaya airfield, the storage area of glide bombs and the aircraft parking area were hit. At the time of the strike, there were up to 10 Su-35 fighters, 8 Su-34 bombers, and 2 Su-25 attack aircraft at the airfield. The enemy’s losses are being clarified.
• On the Orikhiv direction, “Tavriya” OSG units continue to hold their positions near Robotyne. Positional battles persisted northwest of Verbove.
• On the Kherson direction, the Marines units of the of the Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to expand the foothold in Krynky in the western direction.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
• The small missile ship of project 22800 “Tucha,” previously stationed in Novorossiysk, has been relocated for the next phase of sea trials from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea. During this period, the ship will undergo additional trials and tests to assess its operational readiness.
• The small missile ship of project 22800 “Amur” has been relocated from the Kerch Shipyard “Zaliv” to the Zelenodolsk Shipbuilding Plant named after A. Gorky through the Volga-Don Shipping Canal for completion and outfitting.
• The submarine of project 636.3 “Stary Oskol” of the 4th Separate Submarine Brigade has been sent for repairs in Novorossiysk.
• The number of combat-ready submarines of the enemy’s Black Sea Fleet stands at 3 units (project 636.3 B-268 “Veliky Novgorod”, B-271 “Kolpino”, project 877V B-871 “Alrosa”).
• The command of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy and the Novorossiysk naval base conducted a large-scale exercise involving the rotational forces of the Novorossiysk naval base. The exercise focused on the theme of “Repelling a large-scale complex enemy attack on the naval base using unmanned boats and strike UAVs.” The training emphasized timely detection and destruction of attacking enemy assets before entering the close engagement zone. Forces and assets for maritime area security, anti-diversionary measures, and fleet air defense were involved in the exercise.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The enemy command is gradually building up forces and assets of the Russian Aerospace Forces and naval aviation of the Russian Federation, which are being deployed to control the surface and air situation in the northwestern and central parts of the Black Sea:
  • At Belbek Air Base: up to 5 Su-27sm/Su-30m2 fighter jets from the 38th Fighter Aviation Regiment of the 27th Mixed Air Division, 2 MiG-31bm interceptors from the 98th Independent Mixed Naval Aviation Regiment.
  • At Saki Air Base: up to 3 Su-30cm fighters and 5 Su-24m bombers from the 43rd Separated Maritime Assault Aviation Regiment, 2 MiG-29k fighters from the 100th Independent Ship Fighter Aviation Regiment of the 7th Mixed Naval Aviation Corps.
  • At Kacha Air Base: 4 Be-12 maritime patrol aircraft from the 318th Independent Mixed Naval Aviation Regiment of the Black Sea Fleet.
• Every day, 10-14 aircraft are deployed, and over the past 4 days, the number has increased to 20-21 aircraft.
• An Ossetian volunteer unit “Sarmat” has been spotted near Chasiv Yar.
• The 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Army conduct combat operations in Krasnohorivka. Units of the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 68th Army Corps operate in Novomykhailivka.
• Units of the 165th Artillery Brigade of the 35th Army operate west of Velyka Novosilka near Hulyaipole.
• The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Armed Forces operates on the Kherson direction, and the volunteer battalion “Margelov” is deployed near the occupied town of Kakhovka.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy is increasing efforts near Ocheretyne and aggressively assaulting the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.
• The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
• The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.04.24  

Personnel – almost 466,150 (+1096); 

Tanks 7,279 (+11); 

Armored combat vehicles – 13,991 (+20); 

Artillery systems – 11,948 (+43);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,050 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 776 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,065 (+46);

Aircraft – 348 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,507 (+22);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,124 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 13 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 119 towns and villages and 98 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of April 28, Russian forces launched an attack on Ukraine using four “Shahed” drones and five unidentified type drones. Ukraine’s air defense systems destroyed all “Shahed” drones and one unidentified type of drone.
• The city of Mykolaiv was hit in the Russian drone attack, an infrastructure object and two hotels sustained damage.
• On the morning of April 28, Russian forces attacked Kharkiv Oblast, injuring two people.
• Russian forces struck an industrial facility in Zaporizhzhia on Sunday afternoon. Details about the extent of the damage are being clarified. Fortunately, there were no casualties.
• During the past day, Russian forces conducted 20 shelling attacks on Sumy Oblast, targeting 10 communities. One of the communities was hit with 16 mines.
• Emergency power outages are being implemented in the Kharkiv Oblast and at industrial facilities in Kryvyi Rih, as reported by the Ministry of Energy press service. In other regions, consumers were not restricted during the past day. Efforts to repair damage caused by recent widespread shelling in Ukraine are ongoing.
• According to the Russian authorities, as of July 2023, since the beginning of the full-scale war with Ukraine, at least 700,000 children have been moved to Russia. According to the Russian publication “Important Stories,” the Russian government also forcibly moved incapacitated individuals from the occupied territories. Maria Lvova-Belova, the Kremlin’s children’s “ombudsperson”, and a foundation where almost all of her relatives worked are implicated in the deportation.

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