Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 29.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks in the areas of Berestove and Stelmakhivka of Luhansk Oblast. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 18 times in the areas of Kopanky, Novoserhiivka, Makiivka, Nevske, the Serebriansk Forest, and Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 29 Russian attacks in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Novyi, and Andriivka. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 55 enemy attacks in the areas of Novokalynove, Keramik, Arkhanhelske, Umanske, Sokil, Ocheretyne, Kalynove, Solovyove, Novopokrovske, Novoselivka Persha, and west of Semenivka. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Vodyane, Novomykhailivka, Urozhaine, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 15 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 4 times in the area of Staromayorske.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 5 unsuccessful attacks on their positions near the village of Krynky of Kherson Oblast.

General conclusion: 

  • On the Kupyansk direction the enemy is focusing their efforts on the villages of Stelmakhivka and Berestove. They had some success, but “Tavriya” OSG stopped them. The enemy is also pushing towards the village of Ternivka on the Lyman direction, trying to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces beyond the Chorny Zherebets River, but they haven’t succeeded. The Ukrainian Defense Forces have managed to improve their tactical position in Synkivka and Serebriansk Forest.
  • In Luhansk Oblast, the enemy is trying to take advantage of their superiority in the air, missiles, and artillery ammunition. They aim to reach the administrative border of Luhansk Oblast.
  • On the Siversk direction, the enemy is advancing near Bilohorivka and Rozdolivka, attempting to break through and block Siversk to create conditions for further advance towards Sloviansk. Their progress in this direction has been halted.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction Ivanivske and Chasiv Yar remain the hottest spots. The enemy is trying to regain control of Klishchiivka and reach the line along the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal.
  • The Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions face the toughest situation, with intense ongoing battles. The enemy, deploying up to four brigades, seeks to push westward from Avdiivka and Maryinka, aiming to breach into Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. The Ukrainian Defense Forces have retreated to new positions west of Berdychi, Semenivka, and Novomykhailivka. While the enemy has seen some tactical wins, they haven’t gained a strategic upper hand.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy is attempting an advance near Staromayorske. On the Orikhiv direction, they’re pressing in the areas of Robotyne and Verbove. On the Kherson direction, they’re hoping to dislodge the Ukrainian Defense Forces from Krynky, but they haven’t succeeded on any direction.
  • On the Kherson direction, “Odesa” OSG units successfully advanced near Veletenske and established control over Nestryha Island.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 133 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army of the enemy attacked Kyslivka, attempting to advance into the village. The enemy made progress south of Novoselivske and west of Krokhmalne. Battles were ongoing in the areas of Kyslivka, Kotlyarivka, Novoselivske, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Kopanka, Novoyehorivka, and Novoserhiivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks near Makiivka, Nevske, Terny, and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka.
  • Near Chasiv Yar, fighting persisted around the  “Novyi” neighborhood, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and New York.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy has entrenched themselves in Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Semenivka, reinforced their positions, and resumed assault operations. The 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, reinforced by the 1195th Rifle Regiment of Mobilization Reserve and the “Vyatka” “Volunteer” Battalion is advancing westward towards Progres. The 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, reinforced by the “Arbat” and “Cedar” “Volunteer” Battalions is advancing towards Sokil and Yevhenivka. The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, in coordination with the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, displaced the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade and the 61st Separate Motorized Brigade from positions on the western outskirts of Berdychi. The 90th Tank Division expelled the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade from Novokalynove and Keramik, advancing 2 km north and east of the village. There are reasons to believe that the enemy successfully wedged itself between the 115th and 23rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades in the Keramik area.
  • Every day, the enemy carries out 150-200 air strikes using glide bombs, while enemy MLRS regularly target “Tavriya” OSG positions on the front line. The Ukrainian Defense Forces units withdraw from positions before the strike, subsequently turning the destroyed position into a site of close combat between infantry forces on both sides.
  • “Tavriya” OSG command has deployed the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade north of Ocheretyne and the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade in the area of Progres, attempting to halt the Russian advance further westward. The introduction of another brigade to cover the junction between the 115th and 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigades in the Keramik area is expected.
  • The commander of the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment, formed in Bashkortostan, was shot by Cuban mercenaries amid interethnic hostility. The attackers have been arrested and transferred to a pretrial detention center in Rostov.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces withdrew from Novomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced further westward within the bounds of Krasnohorivka, with ongoing fighting for the brick factory in the center of Krasnohorivka. Battles also continued near Heorhiivka and Vodyane.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles continued near Staromayorske.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, the 71st, 70th, 78th, and 291st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Brigade, of the 58th Combined Arms Army practically lost all their personnel over the past year and were staffed by the servicemen from the 429th, 430th, 1152nd, 1154th, 1251st, 1429th, 1430th, and 1434th Rifle Regiments of Mobilization Reserve. The current staffing level of these regiments is 15-20% of the authorized strength. The 76th Air Assault Division has practically lost all its Airborne Fighting Vehicles and is currently equipped with various types of Infantry Fighting Vehicles and T-80 tanks.
  • On the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced near Veletenske and established control over Nestryha Island in the Dnipro River Delta. They repelled several Russian assaults near Krynky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces launched a missile strike on the enemy’s air defense system at Cape Tarkhankut. Preliminary reports indicate the destruction of 4 S-300 launchers and 1 S-400 launcher.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.
  • The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
  • The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.04.24  

Personnel – almost 467,470 (+1320); 

Tanks 7,285 (+6); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,007 (+16); 

Artillery systems – 11,985 (+37);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,051 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 778 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,109 (+44);

Aircraft – 348 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,528 (+21);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,124 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 114 towns and villages and 51 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the past day, Russian forces targeted Zaporizhzhia Oblast 346 times. 10 towns and villages came under the enemy fire resulting in the destruction of residential buildings and one person being injured.
  • Russian forces shelled the village of Kizomys in the Bilozerska community of Kherson Oblast on April 29th, resulting in the death of a 60-year-old local resident and the injury of a 37-year-old man.
  • In the evening of April 29, Russian forces launched a missile strike on Odesa. Preliminary reports indicate four fatalities and 28 injuries, as well as a fire in the house of the former Chairman of the Ukrainian Central Election Commission.
  • On the evening of April 29th, Russian forces launched airstrikes with glide bombs on Kharkiv and Kharkiv district, injuring a woman. Other consequences of the attacks are being clarified.
  • On Sunday, April 28th, digital broadcasting of Ukrainian TV channels in Kharkiv and neighboring areas was restored following the Russian attack on the Kharkiv TV tower on April 22nd.
  • In the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the occupation authorities have decided to sell houses and apartments of residents who have left the occupied territory at preferential credit rates, the Head of the Zaporizhzhia Military Administtation Ivan Fedorov said.

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