Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.04.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 enemy attacks in the areas of Berestove, Novoserhiivka, and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, 13 attacks supported by aviation were repelled in the areas of Tverdokhlibove, Nevske, Terny, Torske, south of Zarichne, in the Serebriansk Forest. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 33 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Novyi, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Rozdolivka, and Chasiv Yar, where the enemy, supported by aviation, attempted to improve its tactical position. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 24 enemy attacks in the areas of Arkhanhelske, Novokalynove, Ocheretyne, Sokil, Solovyove, Semenivka, Orlivka, and Netaylove, where the enemy, supported by aviation, attempted to displace the Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Kostyantynivka, Heorhiivka, and Urozhaine, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 20 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 7 times in the area of Staromayorske and Novodarivka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 3 unsuccessful attacks.

General conclusion: 

• The command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping has the task not only to break through to Kupyansk but also to reach the Oskil River along the Kupyansk-Borova stretch on the widest possible front. This explains the enemy’s attacks in the sectors of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army south of the Tabaivka-Pishchane and Ivanivka-Stepova Novoselivka directions.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will likely have to withdraw from positions in Kyslivka and Kotlyarivka, as the enemy has bypassed the latter both from the north through Kyslivka and from the south along the Svatove-Kupyansk road.
• The enemy cannot accomplish its immediate task on the main axes of attack (directions to Makiivka, Terny, and Serebriansk Forest).
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy continues to seek out weak points to breach the “Khortytsia” OSG defenses constantly attacking different sectors and maneuvering forces and assets throughout the operational zone of the 20th and 25th Armies.
• The persistent enemy attacks attempting to break through Terny and Yampolivka indicate the necessity of cutting the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River in half, which will result in the elimination of its northern portion.
• Following the battles for Terny and Yampolivka, the 144th Motorized Rifle Division will permanently lose its combat effectiveness and will require prolonged restoration, significantly limiting its capabilities to engage in combat against the foothold of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
• The enemy command is conducting a shaping operation aimed at creating two flanks for the future Toretsk offensive operation – northern and southern. The enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, advancing generally towards Chasiv Yar – Stupochky and simultaneously towards Ocheretyne – Novooleksandrivka, aims to establish encompassing positions relative to the Toretsk defensive district within the “Tavriya” OSG area of responsibility. Currently, the enemy command has made the most progress on the southern flank – in the operational zone of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping.
• The enemy’s tactical gains northwest of Avdiivka are developing into broader operational-tactical achievements.
• The “Tavriya” OSG command is currently unable not only to halt the enemy’s advance into depth but also to prevent the widening of the breach on the flanks.
• Troops of the enemy’s 2nd, 41st Combined Arms Armies, and the 1st Army Corps hold a significant advantage over the Ukrainian Defense Forces, namely up to 3-4 times in terms of manpower and up to 6 times in terms of weapons and military equipment. Additionally, Command of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping has formed reserves of 3 motorized rifle regiments in this direction.
• The pace and scope of the enemy’s advance northwest of Avdiivka are steadily escalating. “Tavriya” OSG forces on this direction are simply exhausted.
• In the preceding month, Russian authorities ceased fuel transit across the Kerch Strait owing to the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ strike threat.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 115 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Units of the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces northeast of Berestove from the direction of Krokhmalne, attempting to bypass the village from the north. South of Novoselivske, the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army attacked towards the northern outskirts of Stelmakhivka, but failed to achieve success. East of Stelmakhivka, units of the 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army also failed to accomplish their mission.
• On the Lyman direction, the commands of the 20th and 25th Armies are intensifying efforts to overload the “Khortytsia” OSG defense in the sector, aiming to create conditions for its breakthrough. South of Novoyehorivka, assault groups of the 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army managed to displace forward units from several detachment positions. The 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Army also captured several detachment positions and destroyed several observation posts south of Dibrova. The 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army has not yet managed to penetrate Makiivka from the eastern direction. The 488th and 283rd of the 144th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 20th Army cannot push back the Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions east of Terny. Overall, the 144th Motorized Rifle Division cannot overcome the forest east of Yampolivka and capture Torske, although it has advanced north of the Kreminna-Zarichne road. In the Serebriansk Forest, the enemy command has reinforced the 31st and 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Army and deployed assault units of the 1234th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army into battle.
• On the Bakhmut direction, In the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka, positional battles continued. The 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps launched unsuccessful attacks southeast of Bilohorivka (upper) and east of Verkhnyokamianske. Similarly, the 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps failed in its attack southwest of Spirne. The 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade battled east of Klishchiivka and, with the support of the 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps, managed to push back Ukrainian Defense Forces from one position. Enemy forces attempted flanking maneuvers, with units of the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade trying to advance south of Hryhorivka, and the 83rd Separate Airborne Brigade, along with units of the 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, aiming to displace Ukrainian Defense Forces from Andriivka. However, both attempts were unsuccessful.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy’s attack north of Klishchiivka. Battles took place near Hryhorivka, the “Novyi” neighborhood, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Pivdenne, and New York. The Ukrainian Defense Forces control approximately 50% of Ivanivske.
• The 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division and the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade attempted an assault through the forest south of Chasiv Yar but failed. Similarly, the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army launched an unsuccessful attack in the northwest sector of Ivanivske, hindering the entire grouping from advancing south of the Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka road for a focused assault on Chasiv Yar.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps attempts to capture Novokalynove and Keramik, bypassing it from the north. Jointly with the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, it successfully cleared the area south of the Ocheretyne-Keramik road, thereby almost entirely eliminating the threat to the flanks of its breakthrough towards Ocheretyne. The 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, consistently reinforced with personnel, continues to advance in a general northwestern direction towards Novooleksandrivka – Vozdvyzhenka and towards Lozuvatske.
• The 27th Motorized Rifle Division positioned left of the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade that broke through toward Ocheretyne, took over Solovyove and pushed the “Tavriya” OSG defense line west of Berdychi and Semenivka. The 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army secured Berdychi. The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps forced the Ukrainian Defense Forces out of positions west of Orlivka, enabling enemy reserves to enter the battle zone there.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have advanced to the east of Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka. Battles have been ongoing near Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka.
• On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles persisted near Vodyane, Novodarivka, Urozhaine, and Staromayorske. Russian forces advanced close to Mykilske, up to 200 meters near Urozhaine, and up to 700 meters near Staromayorske.
• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Robotyne and Verbove, but the front line remained unchanged.  
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet is advancing near Shevchenkove.
• The 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division, the 291st Artillery Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army are engaged in combat near Robotyne.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy is intensifying its efforts in the vicinity of Ocheretyne and increasing pressure on the flanks of this breach.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.
• The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
• The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
• In the imminent timeframe, the adversary is poised to redeploy its primary forces from the operational sector of the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade to the operational sectors of the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army and the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps flanking both sides of the Kostyantynivka-Yasynuvata axis, aiming to breach the Stara Mykolaivka-Sukha Balka line.
• The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.04.24  

Personnel – almost 468,720 (+1250); 

Tanks 7,307 (+22); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,046 (+39); 

Artillery systems – 12,011 (+26);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,053 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 779 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,142 (+33);

Aircraft – 348 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,531 (+3);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,126 (+2);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 106 towns and villages and 101 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Since the morning of April 30th, Kharkiv has been under Russian attack. The city’s mayor, Igor Terekhov, reported two hits on civilian objects, including a part of the railroad infrastructure, resulting in one fatality and nine injured residents.
• Ukrainian investigators believe that the military leadership of the Russian Federation deliberately launched a ballistic missile with a cluster warhead at Odesa on April 29th to kill as many civilians as possible. According to the latest information, five people died, and more than 30 were injured. Among the injured are two children and a pregnant woman. Five of the wounded are in critical condition.
• Throughout the day on April 30, Russian forces launched 58 shelling attacks on border territories and populated areas in Sumy Oblast, with a total of 286 explosions documented.
• Two individuals lost their lives due to shelling by Russian military forces in Donetsk Oblast on April 30th.
• Ukrainian researchers have identified twelve narratives that Russians disseminate through paid advertising on Facebook to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. Among the key topics, four to five can be considered crucial, concerning the situation on the front lines, discrediting the West and Ukraine’s international cooperation, mobilization, and corruption.
• According to the survey results, 74% of Ukrainians have a negative or very negative attitude towards citizens of Russia, while 33% feel the same towards citizens of Belarus in general. However, 53% of Ukrainians view positively those Russians who oppose the war through their actions, and 60% hold a positive view of Belarusians who do not support the war, reported Maxim Yakovlev, Director of the School of Political Analysis at Kyiv Mohyla Academy.

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