Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 03.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 enemy attacks in the areas of Novoyehorivka, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kyslivka, Berestove, and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 15 attacks on the Ukrainian Defense Forces positions in the areas of Hrekivka, Nevske, Serebriansk Forest, Terny, Yampolivka, and Torske. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 22 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Rozdolivka, Vyimka, Spirne, Novyi, Klishchiivka and Ivanivske. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 50 enemy attacks in the areas of Arkhanhelske, Sokil, Semenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Novopokrovske, Umanske, Kalynove, Yasnobrodivka, Netaylove, and Pervomaiske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Kostyantynivka, Krasnohorivka, and Urozhaine, where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 16 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 2 times in the area of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 8 unsuccessful attacks.

General conclusion: 

  • On the Ocheretyne-Keramik line, the enemy’s Air Force conducts 20 to 30 daily airstrikes with glide bombs.
  • The pace of Russian advancement in the Ocheretyne area has slowed down to its usual speed.
  • Given the deployment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and the 90th Tank Division by the command of the “Center” Operational Grouping, there are no reserves available for further advancement if the defense of the “Tavriya” OSG under Ocheretyne is breached. This suggests a deficiency in the enemy’s headquarters’ capacity to execute extensive ground offensives at both operational and strategic levels.
  • Russian forces employ chloropicrin and riot control agents (RCAs) against the Ukrainian Defense Forces, violating international conventions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 134 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, fighting persisted near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, Kyslivka, Kotliarivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Novoselivske, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, and Nevske.
  • On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have improved their tactical position in the area near Serebriansk Forest, actively counterattacking and extensively employing UAVs, particularly FPV ones, near Yampolivka and Terny. Battles persisted near Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, in the vicinity of Serebriansk Forest, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks near Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka.
  • Russian troops crossed the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal south of Chasiv Yar, where the canal runs underground, but did not secure the western side of the canal. Battles persisted near Bohdanivka, the “Kanal” and “Novyi” neighborhoods, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Pivdenne.
  • The adversary’s Air Force continues to strike Ukrainian positions, launching up to 150 glide bombs per day. Over the past two days, the main targets of aerial strikes were Chasiv Yar (the “Zhovtnevyi,” “Novyi,” and “Kanal” neighborhoods). Artillery bombardments lasted for 12 consecutive hours, indicating preparations for a ground assault.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced north of Ocheretyne, south of Pervomaiske, towards the center of Arkhanhelske, southwest of Solovyove, and near Netaylove. The 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the enemy’s “Center” Operational Grouping continues to assault the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces northwest of Ocheretyne, overcoming two lines of defense and reaching the line east of Novooleksandrivka.
  • The adversary controls part of Ocheretyne, although the Ukrainian Defense Forces keep the village under fire control.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces have completed the rotation of several military units, deployed additional reserves in this area to stabilize the front line, and are preparing for counterattacks.
  • Battles persisted near Sokil, Kalynove, Prohres, Novopokrovske, Umanske, Netaylove, and Semenivka.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, fighting persisted near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, Russian forces made minor advances in the southern part of Urozhaine. Russian aviation launched powerful strikes on Urozhaine, paving the way for tactical ground movement. Positional battles continued near Staromayorske.
  • A barrier constructed by the enemy, consisting of over 2,000 railroad cars, extends for 30 kilometers from Olenivka to Volnovakha.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Positional battles continued near Robotyne and Verbove. The 141st Separate Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces withdrew from Robotyne.
  • Russian forces are attempting to supply frontline troops with critically important equipment, such as radios.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the enemy’s 8th Army is advancing near Pobieda.
  • The 68th Army Corps is engaged in combat operations on the Southern Donetsk direction. The 36th and 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 5th Army operate near Vuhledar.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy is intensifying its efforts in the vicinity of Ocheretyne and increasing pressure on the flanks of this breach.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation. Russian forces may decide to advance north of the salient near Ocheretyne along the N20 Donetsk-Kostyantynivka highway to put pressure on the Ukrainian Defense Forces defending in the area of Toretsk, and possibly threaten the “Tavriya” OSG operational rear and the areas west of Chasiv Yar.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
  • The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.
  • The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
  • In the imminent timeframe, the adversary will attempt to reach the Stara Mykolaivka-Sukha Balka line.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.05.24  

Personnel – almost 472,140 (+1270); 

Tanks 7,354 (+22); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,129 (+33); 

Artillery systems – 12,102 (+58);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,053 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 786 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,266 (+42);

Aircraft – 348 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,580 (+19);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,126 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 132 towns and villages and 101 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • In April, there were 444 documented instances of Russian forces employing munitions containing hazardous chemical substances, marking an increase of 71 cases compared to the previous period, according to reports from the Ukrainian Armed Forces Support Command. From February 2023 to April of the current year, a total of 1981 instances of Russians using such munitions have been recorded.
  • Russian occupying forces are actively shelling Donetsk on Thursday, May 3. As of 3:00 PM, there are reports of 3 fatalities and 5 injuries.
  • According to preliminary information, in the afternoon of May 3, Russian forces struck Kharkiv with a glide bomb, resulting in the death of one woman and injuries to two men. Another bomb hit a residential area damaging a tram with passengers. The strike also ruined several single-family homes trapping an unspecified number of people under the rubble.
  • Three civilians have been injured as a result of the shelling targeting critical infrastructure in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Yuriy Zarko, the mayor of Bilopillya in Sumy Oblast, has urged residents to evacuate the town for the next 10 days due to the anticipated rise in Russian shelling. This advice stems from past instances when Russia heightened its shelling just before May 9, commemorated in Russia as Victory Day in the Second World War. The mayor emphasized that there are no safe areas in the town, as the enemy attacks randomly.
  • According to the estimates of the National Bank of Ukraine, the workforce aged 15-70 years decreased by more than a quarter in 2023 compared to 2021. Nearly half of this reduction was attributed to the departure of external migrants from the workforce. Significant factors contributing to this decline (about 40% of the workforce reduction) included demographic losses, occupation, and transition to economically inactive population (due to likely difficulties in finding employment for displaced persons, the need for care of other family members, an increase in the number of pensioners, lack of skills demanded in the labor market). The decrease in workforce participation was widespread across all regions of Ukraine, with the most significant impact felt in areas experiencing active hostilities.

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