Russia’s war on Ukraine. 04.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 enemy attacks in the areas of Petropavlivka, Kyslivka, Andriivka, and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 7 enemy attacks in the areas of Makiivka, Nevske, Terny, Torske, and Serebriansk Forest. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 27 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Novyi, Klishchiivka and Andriivka. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 34 enemy attacks in the areas of Arkhanhelske, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Novopokrovske, Umanske, Netaylove, and west of Semenivka. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane, where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 16 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 5 times in the area of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 11 unsuccessful attacks.

General conclusion: 

• Russian forces are shifting their attack directions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line to search for weak spots in the Ukrainian defense. Currently, the enemy is focusing its main assault on the Kyslivka and Tabaiivka directions.
• The command of the enemy’s “South” Operational Grouping continues to exert significant efforts to achieve its immediate task – to reach the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal in the area of Chasiv Yar.
• The further enemy actions southeast of Chasiv Yar, primarily on both sides of the T0504 road, depend largely on the success of the battles in the Ivanivske area.
• Units of the “Khortytsia” Operational Grouping continue to hold the Klishchiivka-Andriivka line, which significantly affects the overall situation in the Chasiv Yar area.
• Securing the junction of T0504 road and the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal is vital for defending Chasiv Yar. If the Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain this position, it will greatly impede the enemy’s attempt to approach the city from the southeast.
• At the breach near Ocheretyne, the adversary has deployed the 30th and 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades to push forward on the northwest and west fronts, intending to encircle the “Khortytsia” Operational Grouping’s defense perimeter in the Toretsk area.
• The enemy’s advancement near Arkhanhelske can complicate the defense operations of the “Tavriya” Operational Grouping in this area, allowing Russian forces to conduct a broader range of offensive operations from Ocheretyne.
• The Russian military command is focusing efforts on consolidating their flanks before further advancing in the Toretsk area.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 119 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army was engaged in combat in the center of Kyslivka.
• Fighting continued near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stelmakhivka, Berestove, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, and Nevske.
• On the Lyman direction, battles persisted near Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, Bilohorivka and in the area of Serebriansk Forest.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the area of Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka.
• The enemy has improved its tactical position near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are suffering significant personnel losses. In the strip between the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Bakhmut Road and Chasiv Yar, the enemy has deployed additional units from the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division, which conducted several unsuccessful attacks towards Ivanivske – Chasiv Yar. Advanced units of the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division are attempting to advance as close as possible through the forest and reach the “Kanal” neighborhood. Formations from the “Volunteer Assault Corps” operate there as well. The enemy has failed to secure the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar. The 217th Airborne Regiment is also attempting to break through from the direction of Bohdanivka towards Kalynivka, aiming to widen the front for attacks on the “Kanal.” Advanced units of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division cannot provide support for the left flank of the 98th Airborne Division’s assault tactical group. The 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade was brought into battle with the aim of displacing Ukrainian forces from the Ivanivske area to the west. The 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, after partial restoration, was reintroduced into battle and pushed back the Ukrainian Defense Forces east of Klishchiivka but were halted.
• Fighting continued near Bohdanivka, in the vicinity of the “Novyi” neighborhood, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have made minor advancements in the center of Ocheretyne, west of Solovyove, west of Semenivka and Berdychi, east of Novooleksandrivka, towards Nevelske from Pervomaiske. The 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps controls a portion of Arkhanhelske, having advanced in a northwest direction from the side of Keramik. The 27th Motorized Rifle Division and the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army advanced towards Solovyove-Sokil and Novobakhmutivka-Novopokrovske, where they made some progress. Units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division also exerted frontal pressure further west of Berdychi, Semenivka, and Orlivka. Units of the 30th and 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades attempted to attack further west of Ocheretyne along the railway towards Novooleksandrivka and Lozuvatske over the past few days but only managed to approach the eastern outskirts of Novooleksandrivka.
• Fighting continued near Kalynove, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Netaylove.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have made slight advancements northwest and west of Novomykhailivka towards Paraskoviivka. Fighting has been ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
• On the Berdyansk direction, Russian forces attacked the southern outskirts of Urozhaine. Positional battles were ongoing near Staromayorske. The enemy’s air force conducted airstrikes on the bridge over the Mokri Yaly River, which connects Velyka Novosilka with Vremivka.
• On the Orikhiv direction, despite their regular frontal attacks on the village for several months, Russian forces failed to achieve significant tactical successes in the area of Robotyne.
• On the Kherson direction, positional combat persisted on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast and near the islands in the Dnipro River delta. Small Russian assault groups unsuccessfully attempted to reclaim lost positions on Nestryha Island.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces intensified nighttime raids in the Dnipro River delta with the support of FPV drones and artillery.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The area around Chasiv Yar has been reinforced with the transfer of the 17th High-Power Artillery Brigade from the Southern Military District (equipped with 2S7M self-propelled artillery systems and 2S4 self-propelled mortars).
• The 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Army is engaged in combat near Hulyaipole.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy is intensifying its efforts in the vicinity of Ocheretyne and increasing pressure on the flanks of this breach.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation. Russian forces may decide to advance north of the salient near Ocheretyne along the N20 Donetsk-Kostyantynivka highway to put pressure on the Ukrainian Defense Forces defending in the area of Toretsk, and possibly threaten the “Tavriya” OSG operational rear and the areas west of Chasiv Yar.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
• The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.
• The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
• In the imminent timeframe, the adversary will attempt to reach the Stara Mykolaivka-Sukha Balka line.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.05.24  

Personnel – almost 473,400 (+1260); 

Tanks 7,366 (+12); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,156 (+27); 

Artillery systems – 12,148 (+46);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,055 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 788 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,337 (+71);

Aircraft – 348 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,611 (+31);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,127 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 141 towns and villages and 222 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Just this week, Russian forces have carried out over 380 shelling attacks on Ukrainian cities and regions in the following areas: Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Odesa Oblasts, President Zelenskiy said, calling Russian attackers terrorists.
• In the early hours of May 4th, the adversary deployed thirteen “Shahed” type combat UAVs and fired four S-300 surface-to-air missiles. The air defense system neutralized all thirteen UAVs.
• Kharkiv is under regular Russian attacks. Overnight, two Russian “Shahed” type drones struck Kharkiv, injuring four people, including a child, and starting large scale fires in 3 locations. At 16:20 on Saturday, Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure, causing a severe fire at an industrial facility in the Industrial District. Six wounded people have been reported. Another likely ballistic missile attack was reported around 9 p.m.
• In the evening of Saturday, the enemy launched a cruise missile “Iskander” at the Odessa Oblast. According to local authorities, civilian infrastructure was damaged, and three people were injured.
• As a result of Russian shelling of Druzhkivka and Chasiv Yar in northern Donetsk Oblast on Saturday, one person was killed, and two others were injured.
• On Saturday morning, a truck delivering drinking water to residents in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, came under enemy attack. Russian forces targeted the vehicle with drones, causing it to catch fire and burn completely. No one was injured in the incident.
• In the Pavlohrad district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, five “Shahed” drones were downed overnight, resulting in damage to critical infrastructure and three private residences. Throughout the day, the enemy shelled Nikopol, targeting the city with artillery and kamikaze drones. A 57-year-old woman was injured as a result.
• In Rostov-on-Don, the Southern District Military Court of the Russian Federation sentenced Ukrainian citizen Vladyslav Plakhotnyk to 18 years in a high-security penal colony. He was accused of serving in the “Azov” battalion, which Russia has declared a terrorist organization.

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