Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 05.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Pishchane, Kyslivka, Stelmakhivka and Berestove. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 9 enemy attacks in the areas of Serebriansk Forest and Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 27 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Spirne, Rozdolivka, Novyi, Klishchiivka and south of Ivanivske. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks in the areas of Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Novopokrovske, and Umanske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Vodyane, and Urozhaine, where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 15 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 5 times in the area of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 10 unsuccessful attacks.

General conclusion: 

  • The adversary is preparing for action north and northwest of Kharkiv.
  • Units of the 44th Army Corps of the “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping arrive and unload at small rail stations in the Russian Kursk Oblast avoiding widespread publicity and then march to Belgorod Oblast to concentration areas.
  • The adversary has altered the intensity of shelling along the Ukrainian border: 20-25 shelling incidents per day in Sumy Oblast are now accompanied by 8-10 incidents in the Chernihiv and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • Recently, two Su-25 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian territory near Krasnyi Khutir (Chernihiv Oblast) and Seredyna-Buda (Sumy Oblast), simultaneously, the number of reconnaissance UAV flights by the adversary in Kharkiv Oblast has sharply increased to 20 per day.
  • The adversary has begun regularly deploying Su-35s equipped with the “Irbis” radar from the “Baltimor” Airbase (Voronezh Oblast) for air patrols in close proximity to the state border (in the Medvenka area, Kursk Oblast, and Olkhovatka, Belgorod Oblast). This is a departure from previous practices, as previously it had not done so likely due to the threat to its aviation from the Ukrainian Defense Forces air defense systems.
  • Special Operations Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, including the “Senegh” center, are concentrated within the “Belgorod” and partially within the “Kursk” Operational Groupings.
  • Russian forces are attempting to bypass Chasiv Yar from the direction of Bohdanivka and Ivanivka, aiming for a frontal assault on the city.
  • The Russian military command has decided to advance southwest of Avdiivka. It remains unclear whether the adversary will continue moving north towards Toretsk or revert to advancing towards Pokrovsk.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the adversary withdraws mobilization reserve infantry battalions from combat only after sustaining losses of 70-80%.
  • “Tavriya” OSG units are being withdrawn from the Arkhanhelske due to unfavorable tactical conditions.
  • Russian forces continue to employ small infantry groups for advancing on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
  • Russian troops face difficulties in establishing positions north of Robotyne and northwest of Verbove due to destruction of positions and buildings in the area.
  • Russian and Ukrainian forces intensify operations on the islands in the Dnipro River delta.
  • Russian forces utilize reconnaissance UAVs and Su-24MR aircraft instead of A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft for reconnaissance along the Russian-Ukrainian border and in the adjacent areas.
  • The number of Russian military personnel surrendering is increasing.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 95 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Slobozhansk direction, the adversary’s “Sever” Operational Grouping continues its operational deployment. Its first component, the border protection group, consists of the “Bryansk,” “Kursk,” and “Belgorod” Operational Groupings and continues to execute its assigned tasks. The second component, currently in the operational deployment phase, is not engaged in tasks along the state border and, according to the deployment plan of troop concentrations, is assuming characteristics of a strike force. The “Sever” Operational Grouping comprises up to 50,000 personnel, 395 tanks, 928 armored combat vehicles, 992 artillery pieces, mortars, and 123 MLRS. Up to two missile divisions armed with 9K720 “Iskander” mobile short-range ballistic missile systems have been deployed to support the operations of the Operational Grouping.
  • The “Bryansk” Operational Grouping (headquarters in the area of Starodub) consists of 1 motorized rifle regiment, 11 battalions, and 1 company, totaling 8,500 personnel.
  • The “Kursk” Operational Grouping (headquarters in the area of Rylsk) consists of 3 motorized rifle regiments, 9 battalions, and 2 companies, totaling 8,500 personnel.
  • The “Belgorod” Operational Grouping (headquarters in the area of Belgorod) consists of 1 separate motorized rifle brigade, 7 regiments, 14 battalions, and 5 companies, totaling 31,200 personnel.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 26th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army, taking advantage of the airstrike results, launched an attack on the positions of the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade in Kyslivka – Kotlyarivka, advancing by 50-100 meters and sustaining losses of several assault groups and up to 30 armored vehicles.
  • Positional battles persisted near Petropavlivka, near Pishchane, Kyslivka, Kotlyarivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Andriivka, Novovodyane, Makiivka, and Nevske.
  • On the Lyman direction, battles persisted near Terny, Torske, Dibrova, Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka and in the area of Serebriansk Forest.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the area of Rozdolivka. The 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps launched an attack near Spirne, while the 106th Airborne Division did the same near Rozdolivka.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces control Hryhorivka and Kalynivka, counterattacking from their outskirts, hindering the enemy’s advance north of Chasiv Yar.
  • Fighting persisted near Bohdanivka, Kalynivka, the “Novyi” neighborhood, Ivanivske, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Intense combat persists, with no significant shifts in the situation over the last 2-3 days. The 27th Motorized Rifle Division is endeavoring to navigate a substantial minefield between Ocheretyne and Novokalynove to reach the positions held by the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Arkhanhelske. There’s heavy fighting for Netaylove, which the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army is struggling to seize. Their progress towards Nevelske, atop a strategic height, is notably sluggish. Russian forces have pushed 1.5 km in depth on the 1.4 km front southward from Pervomaiske, in the eastern outskirts of Arkhanhelske, in the area of Berdychi, Semenivka, and Umanske, they secured control over Keramik and Novokalynove.
  • Russian assaults on Novooleksandrivka have been repelled, with the enemy attacking positions of the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade in the fields northeast of this village.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have advanced in the northern part of the brick factory in central Krasnohorivka, moved west and southwest of Novomykhailivka, and into the center of Heorhiivka. Battles are ongoing near Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Novomykhailivka.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, the 5th Separate Tank Brigade and the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the adversary have pushed forward roughly 200 meters toward the southern periphery of Urozhaine. Aerial bombardments are being carried out by the enemy on the defensive positions of the 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade tasked with protecting the village.
  • Positional battles are ongoing near Vodyane, Staromayorske, and Urozhaine. Russian forces have struck the bridge over the Mokri Yaly river in Velyka Novosilka with an air-to-ground missile of the Kh-38ML class.
  • Recently, Russian forces conducted a series of unsuccessful assaults near Vuhledar, where the 5th Separate Tank Brigade, the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army, and the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet lost at least 32 units of armored vehicles.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 58th Army of the adversary are unsuccessfully attempting to dislodge the 142nd Separate Presidential Brigade from the northern and eastern outskirts of Robotyne.
  • Positional battles persist in the vicinity of Robotyne and to the northwest of Verbove.
  • On the Kherson direction, the adversary’s Aerospace Forces continue to conduct airstrikes with glide bombs on the southern outskirts of Krynky and the northern bank of the Dnipro River opposite it, including Tyahynka.
  • Persistent positional battles are ongoing in the vicinity of Krynky and on Nestryha Island. Ukrainian positions on Nestryha Island are not a foothold; the island remains under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 108th and 56th Airborne Regiments of the 7th Airborne Division are advancing at the Robotyne-Verbove line. The 1152nd and 291st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, as well as the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Army, operate in the vicinity of Robotyne.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy’s military leadership is gearing up for tactical raids in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. They plan to engage forces from the 11th and 44th Army Corps, and possibly the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Army. Their goal is to distract the Ukrainian Defense Forces command and prevent the use of reserves, especially strategic ones, in more critical areas. By launching a limited offensive in Kharkiv, they aim to threaten a breakthrough towards the city and tie down a significant portion of the Ukrainian Defense Forces there.
  • The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
  • The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.
  • The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.05.24  

Personnel – almost 474,260 (+860); 

Tanks 7,375 (+9); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,179 (+18); 

Artillery systems – 12,212 (+21);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,057 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 790 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,418 (+37);

Aircraft – 349 (+1);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,636 (+25);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,147 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 113 towns and villages and 119 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of May 5, Russian forces attacked Ukraine from the northern and southern directions, employing 24 Shahed-131/136 strike UAVs. 23 strike UAVs were destroyed in Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • On May 4th, Russian forces conducted bombing raids on Kharkiv, as well as on 29 Ukrainian villages and towns, Ukrainian General Staff reports.
  • Overnight, Russian forces conducted a drone assault on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 12 UAVs were successfully neutralized in the Oblast— one each in the Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol, and ten in the Dnipro District. Nonetheless, there were direct hits in Dnipro, resulting in infrastructure damage and multiple fire outbreaks. Additionally, a multi-story residential building sustained significant damage.
  • During the day on May 5, the Easter Sunday, Russian forces launched an attack on the central part of Kharkiv. Three hits were recorded in the Shevchenkivskyi district, resulting in 15 casualties and damage to 20 multi-story residential buildings. During the night of May 5th, the enemy launched UAV attacks on the single family home area of Kharkiv city, resulting in injuries to 5 individuals.
  • As a result of Russian shelling in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast on Sunday, a woman was killed, and two men were injured.
  • On Sunday, Russian forces struck Poltava Oblast. The missile strike damaged a grain elevator in the Poltava community, with no casualties reported.
  • On Sunday, Russian forces launched an attack with five rockets targeting the Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast. The barrage caused damage to several structures within the plant’s compound, fortunately resulting in no casualties.
  • Until noon on May 5th, rescue teams worked to extinguish extensive fires in the Shostka district of Sumy Oblast, caused by enemy shelling the previous evening. Preliminary reports indicate that two people were injured.
  • On Sunday, May 5th, around 09:00, Russian forces struck the Pokrovsky district of Donetsk Oblast, injuring three people who were in a car at the time of the attack. Preliminary reports suggest that Russian occupants used an FPV drone equipped with an F-1 grenade.

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