Russia’s war on Ukraine. 07.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Pishchane, Berestove, Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 7 attacks in the vicinity of Nevske, Serebriansk Forest, Terny, and Yampolivka. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 17 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Rozdolivka, Novyi, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 31 enemy attacks in the areas of Novooleksandrivka, Novopokrovske, Sokil, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, Netaylove and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, and Urozhaine, where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 15 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 6 times in the area of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 3 unsuccessful attacks.

General conclusion: 

• The enemy continues to attack in the areas of Novooleksandrivka, Novopokrovske, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, Netaylove, and Nevelske.
• Small enemy assault groups attempt to storm Krasnohorivka, but the intense artillery fire from the Ukrainian Defense Forces hinders their consolidation on captured positions and the development of tactical successes.
• The enemy’s Aerospace Forces struck Monchynivka in Kharkiv Oblast, using FAB-1500 glide bomb for the first time.
• The Russian occupying administration has established the necessary infrastructure to conscript Ukrainian citizens within the occupied territories, intending to enlist over 150,000 individuals into the Russian military. These measures flagrantly breach the Geneva Convention on the Protection of Victims of War.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 97 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have advanced 300 meters east of Stelmakhivka and south of Krokhmalne, continuing to assault the “Khortytsia” OSG positions near Pishchane, Berestove, Nevske, and Novosadove.
• On the Lyman direction, Fighting continued near Torske, in the area Serebriansk Forest, and near Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks near Verkhnyokamianske, near Spine, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka.
• Intense fighting persisted on the eastern flanks in the area of Chasiv Yar near Bohdanivka and Ivanivske.
• Defense forces repelled attacks near Ivanivske, near Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced along the E50 highway in the eastern part of Netaylove, and fighting continues in the village. The enemy has progressed up to 2 km east of Novopokrovske and reached the outskirts of Novooleksandrivka. Enemy units advanced into residential areas on the eastern outskirts of Umanske and advance on Kalynove from positions in Arkhanhelske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced to the western outskirts of Krasnohorivka, with heavy fighting ongoing in the industrial area west of the brick factory. The enemy attacked near Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Paraskoviivka.
• On the Berdyansk direction, Russian attacks continued near Vodyane, Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced to the southern outskirts of Robotyne, positional clashes continued.
• On the Kherson direction, Russian forces have advanced north of Oleshky, with ongoing positional battles occurring near Krynky. Russian troops attempt to regain control of Nestryha Island and are suffering significant losses.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Commander of the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation, Colonel General O. Lapin, has been appointed as the commander of the re-established Leningrad Military District, and Lieutenant General V. Solodchuk, the commander of the 36^th Combined Arms Army, has been appointed as the chief of staff of the district. Commander of the Southern Military District, Colonel General S. Kuzovlyev, has been appointed as the commander of the re-established Moscow Military District, and Lieutenant General M. Zusko, the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, has been appointed as the chief of staff of the district.
• The 204th Separate SOF Regiment “Akhmat” is engaged in combat actions in the Serebriansk Forest.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy’s military leadership is gearing up for tactical raids in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. They plan to engage forces from the 11th and 44th Army Corps, and possibly the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Army. Their goal is to distract the Ukrainian Defense Forces command and prevent the use of reserves, especially strategic ones, in more critical areas. By launching a limited offensive in Kharkiv, they aim to threaten a breakthrough towards the city and tie down a significant portion of the Ukrainian Defense Forces there.
• The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
• The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.
• The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.05.24  

Personnel – almost 476,460 (+1160); 

Tanks 7,405 (+25); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,227 (+14); 

Artillery systems – 12,287 (+37);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,057 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 792 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,509 (+32);

Aircraft – 349 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,717 (+34);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,149 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 116 towns and villages and 70 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Two adults and a child were injured as a result of Russian airstrikes with glide bombs on residential buildings in the town of Borova in Kharkiv Oblast on the evening of May 6th.
• During the day of May 6th, Russian forces launched 224 strikes on the territory of Sumy Oblast: one person was killed, two minors and two adults were injured.
• Throughout the day on May 7, Russian forces launched drone and artillery attacks on the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in four wounded civilians. Ten single family homes and three garages were damaged. Power lines were also affected.
• On May 7 Russian forces conducted two airstrikes on the town of Komyshuvakha in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injuring a man. The explosions and debris damaged buildings, leading to a fire.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent