Russia’s war on Ukraine. 10.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Berestove, and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 4 attacks in the vicinity of Novosadove, Torske, and Serebriansk Forest. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Novyi, Rozdolivka, Ivanivske, Stupochky, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 28 enemy attacks in the areas of Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Novoselivka Persha, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Netaylove. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, and Urozhaine, where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 7 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 19 times in the area of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 2 unsuccessful attacks.

General conclusion: 

• The decrease in enemy attack frequency around Chasiv Yar is due to their forces and resources regrouping in preparation for an assault on the city.
• The adversary has intensified actions in the Ivanivske – Klishchiivka sector, aiming to protect the left flank of their tactical group, which is likely poised to assault Chasiv Yar, as their attempt to bypass it from the south has failed.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy is gearing up for further advancement, most likely around Chasiv Yar.
• The enemy will attempt to advance towards the Stupochky area and further south towards Kostyantynivka. It is possible that the adversary will try to reach the Ivanopillya – Bila Hora line, encircling the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Toretsk.
• Coordinating simultaneous actions on the Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk operational directions has become progressively difficult for the enemy command, leading to the alternating offensive engagements of the “South” Operational Grouping forces on these directions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 95 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have advanced northeast of Synkivka, towards Berestove and by 300 meters near Novoselivske.
• Battles have persisted near Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, and Tverdokhlibove.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces launched attacks near Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Novolyubivka, Torske, Serebriansk Forest, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, units of the 106th Airborne Division of the enemy have advanced in the area of Vesele, actively pushing their offensive along the railroad east of the village. The situation is dire and tends to worsen due to significant pressure from the enemy. In the sector between Rozdolivka and Bilohorivka, the enemy is making efforts to penetrate the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which are fatigued from extended combat engagements in this region. The 6th and 7th Separate Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Army Corps within the 8th Army Corps are launching assaults on Ukrainian Defense Forces positions near Bilohorivka, Zolotarivka, and Verkhniokamyanka, aiming to breach through to Siversk and isolate the Siversky bulge held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks near Verkhnyokamianske and near Vyimka.
• The 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division and the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the enemy attempted to advance north of the T-0504 Kostyantynivka – Bakhmut road in the forest south of the “Novyi” neighborhood, but failed to achieve their objectives. The 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps and the 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps on a wide front launched attacks simultaneously in several locations in a relatively wide line north and east of Klishchiivka, attempting to displace the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces westward beyond the ruins of this village.
• On the Avdiivka direction, units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps have advanced to the central part of Umanske north of Sonyachna Street. Russian forces have advanced to the outskirts of Novopokrovske and in the fields near Netaylove and Pervomaiske.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have advanced into the eastern part of Krasnohorivka along Chaykovskoho Street, along Pershoho Travnya Street, towards the “Sonyachnyi” neighborhood, and along Zakhidna Street.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain control over the situation in Krasnohorivka.
• Combat operations continued near Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, Vuhledar, and Vodyane.
• On the Berdyansk direction, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have pushed back the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet by 200 meters in Staromayorske. The enemy is conducting airstrikes on the village. Russian forces have advanced into Urozhaine along the T0518 highway.
• On the Orikhiv direction, units of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division are unable to consolidate their position in the center of Robotyne. The positions of the Ukrainian Defense Force near the village are regularly targeted by glide bombs and artillery fire from MLRS. Positional battles are ongoing northwest of Verbove.
• On the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled several Russian attacks near Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 80th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 1st Army Corps “Sparta” is operating near Yasnobrodivka. The 392nd Rifle Regiment of Mobilization Reserve is active on the Zaporizhzhia direction. The 80th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Leningrad Military District is deployed on the Kherson direction.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy’s “South” Operational Grouping is currently undergoing force and asset reorganization in the area of Chasiv Yar. The adversary is completing the reinforcement and preparation of assault units totaling approximately 250 personnel within the 217th and 331st Airborne Regiments of the 98th Airborne Division.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy’s military leadership is gearing up for tactical raids in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. They plan to engage forces from the 11th and 44th Army Corps, and possibly the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Army. Their goal is to distract the Ukrainian Defense Forces command and prevent the use of reserves, especially strategic ones, in more critical areas. By launching a limited offensive in Kharkiv, they aim to threaten a breakthrough towards the city and tie down a significant portion of the Ukrainian Defense Forces there.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces are currently unable to halt enemy advancement on the Kupyansk direction. Expect enemy capture of Synkivka soon, along with intense rear-guard actions north of Kupyansk’s eastern outskirts, for Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Berestove.
• The adversary may concentrate additional assault units in the advance zone of the 98th Airborne Division, where it previously managed to advance closest to the Chasiv Yar boundary. It will attempt to break through on May 10-11 along two axes: in the advance zone of the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division towards the “Kanal” neighborhood and in the advance zone of the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division towards the “Novyi” neighborhood.
• The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
• The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.
• The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.05.24  

Personnel – almost 479,710 (+980); 

Tanks 7,434 (+5); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,313 (+32); 

Artillery systems – 12,387 (+47);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,062 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 795 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,691 (+73);

Aircraft – 349 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,826 (+51);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,192 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 74 towns and villages and 135 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of May 9-10, Russian occupiers once again attacked Ukraine, deploying 10 “Shahed” drones. Air defense systems successfully intercepted all airborne targets.
• According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, in April, at least 129 civilians were killed and another 574 were injured as a result of hostilities.
• During the past day, May 9th, Donetsk Oblast experienced 2,212 shelling incidents by Russian forces, resulting in damage to nine towns and villages and 98 civilian infrastructure facilities.
• As a result of May 10 shelling in Donetsk Oblast, two people were killed and two were injured. Around noon, the Russian forces shelled Yelyzavetivka of Maryinka community with artillery, killing a 49-year-old man and a 64-year-old woman. Two people were injured in Chasiv Yar.
• During the night of May 9-10, occupiers launched a rocket attack on Kharkiv, resulting in ignited buildings and two injured civilians, including a child. According to preliminary data, the enemy launched a strike with an S-400 missile from Belgorod Oblast of the Russian Federation.
• Two civilians in Kherson Oblast were wounded in shelling incidents on May 10 – a 49-year-old woman in Kozatske and a 48-year-old man in Beryslav.
• Russian forces indiscriminately shell border communities in Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in at least five injuries and two fatalities as of 3 p.m. on May 10.
• According to the EnergyMap portal, in April, compared to March, Ukraine reduced its electricity exports by 13 times to 12,000 MWh, while imports increased by a third to 223,900 MWh.
• In 2023, every sixth punishment for “discrediting the Russian army” in the Russian Federation and the occupied territories of Ukraine was recorded in the temporarily occupied Crimea. The number of open cases increased by 70.6%, Tamil Tasheva, the Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, reported. This indicates a higher level of resistance than in other parts of Russia.
• Russian occupation authorities compile lists of Mariupol residents who will be banned from residing in the city. This includes individuals subject to deportation and those deemed ineligible for return. The Center for National Resistance of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reports that approximately 600 residents have returned to the city under various circumstances. However, the occupiers are concerned about the potential return of “agents” from the Ukrainian Defense Forces, prompting them to establish these registries.
• As of today, over 35,000 applications have been received for the “I Want to Live” project, predominantly from active Russian military personnel. 260 individuals have already utilized it, Andriy Ysov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, said. The objective of the project is to facilitate the surrender of Russian military personnel who are unwilling to fight in the war.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent