Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 11.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “North” on the Siversky direction, the adversary maintains military presence in the border areas, conducts sabotage-reconnaissance activities, shells residential areas from the territory of the Russian Federation, and increases the density of mine barriers along the state border of Ukraine. On the Slobozhansk direction, 9 attacks were repelled in the areas of Strilecha, Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliynykove, Lukyantsi, Ohirtseve, Hatyshche, and Pletenivka.

In the “Khortytsia” OSG operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Berestove, and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 11 attacks in the vicinity of Makiivka and Torske. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 18 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Rozdolivka, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Kalynivka, Vyimka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 24 enemy attacks in the areas of Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, and Umanske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, southwest of Novomykhailivka, and Solodke, where the adversary attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 3 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 14 times in the area of Staromayorske and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 1 unsuccessful attack.

General conclusion: 

  • The adversary failed to breach the defense of the Ukrainian Defense Forces units on the Kharkiv direction during the first 12 hours of combat operations and lost its “window of opportunity”.
  • Russian forces employed a relatively limited number of troops and assets for the attack on the Kharkiv direction.
  • Russian forces intend to establish a 10-kilometer buffer zone along the northern border of Kharkiv Oblast, likely aimed at displacing Ukrainian forces beyond the effective range of small arms fire on Russian logistics targets in the Russian Belgorod Oblast and to bring their artillery within range of Kharkiv.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces have conducted 10 to 20 attacks over the past weeks, with armored vehicles being used only episodically.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 95 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy launched combat operations, directing a major offensive towards Vovchansk and another thrust towards Lyptsi. Military units from the “Belgorod” Operational Grouping, including 2 battalions from the 18th Motorized Rifle Division and an assault group from the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps, with a total strength of up to 2 companies, are engaged in active combat in the areas of Pylna and Borysivka. Russian forces have seized control of Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna, and Borysivka, controlling an area spanning 10 by 5 kilometers.
  • Enemy reserves are being deployed in the Rzhavets and Nova Tavilzhanka areas (Shebekino – Vovchansk direction). The adversary is employing heavy artillery and air power extensively, with significant involvement of Special Operations Forces (SOF) groups. Ukrainian defenses successfully repelled an assault between Strilecha and Zelene. Intense fighting continues near Zelene, Ohirtseve, Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliynykove, and Hatyshche.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive operations in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Berestove, Krokhmalne, Kyslivka, Kotlyarivka, Stelmakhivka, Novosadove, Makiivka, Terny, Yampolivka, and Torske.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Dibrova, Hryhorivka, Serebriansk Forest, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Rozdolivka.
  • Units of the 98th Airborne Division are pushing back the Ukrainian Defense Forces from positions near the “Novyi” neighborhood, jointly with the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, attacking the southeastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar. The enemy continues to assault on motorcycles and ATVs. The enemy attacked near Bohdanivka, Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. A UAV unit from the 3rd Separate SOF Brigade struck the S-300 air defense system of the Ukrainain Defense Forces near Oleksandro-Kalynove.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced further within Umanske, in the area of Netaylove, south of Pervomaiske, and continued their advance in the areas of Kalynove, Arkhanhelske, Novooleksandrivka, Solovyove, Ocheretyne, Sokol, Novoselivka Persha, Semenivka, and Yasnobrodivka.
  • On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces made slight advances along the forest strip south of Krasnohorivka, in the wooded area near Marinka. The enemy advanced in the areas of Heorhiivka, Solodke, Vodyane, Kostyantynivka, and Novomykhailivka. The 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps is attempting to encircle the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Krasnohorivka, with the enemy advancing along Tchaikovsky and Abrykosova Streets in eastern Krasnohorivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces blocked the enemy’s assault group at the brick factory in central Krasnohorivka. Russian forces utilized motorcycles in assaults near Paraskoviivka.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, Russian forces made slight advances southwest of Urozhaine and south of Staromayorske. The 1466th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops and the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army launched an offensive west of Staromayorske.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles were ongoing near Robotyne and Verbove.
  • On the Kherson direction positional battles continued near Krynky, Antonivskyi Bridge, and on the islands in the Dnipro River delta near Kozachi Laheri. Russian forces periodically attempt to land on Nestryha Island, but the Ukrainain Defense Forces continue to repel these attempts.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army Corps is advancing near Ivanivske.

Escalation indicators:

  • The adversary launched an offensive on the Slobozhansk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Expect enemy capture of Synkivka soon, along with intense rear-guard actions north of Kupyansk’s eastern outskirts, for Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Berestove.
  • The adversary may concentrate additional assault units in the advance zone of the 98th Airborne Division, where it previously managed to advance closest to the Chasiv Yar boundary. It will attempt to break through on May 10-11 along two axes: in the advance zone of the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division towards the “Kanal” neighborhood and in the advance zone of the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division towards the “Novyi” neighborhood.
  • The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
  • The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.
  • The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.05.24  

Personnel – almost 481,030 (+1320); 

Tanks 7,449 (+15); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,353 (+40); 

Artillery systems – 12,442 (+55);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,064 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 796 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,755 (+64);

Aircraft – 349 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,868 (+42);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,193 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 115 towns and villages and 63 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Over the past day, Russian forces struck at Zaporizhzhia Oblast 380 times, affecting ten towns and villages.
  • Overnight into Saturday, the enemy conducted an aerial attack on peaceful villages in Kherson Oblast. One of the Russian glide bombs targeted a private residence in Tyahynka in the Beryslav district. A man was killed at the site of the strike, and a woman was injured.
  • During May 10, amid the Russian Federation’s advances, Ukrainian authorities evacuated 1048 residents from the Chuhuiv district, 440 from the Kharkiv district, and 12 from the Bohodukhiv district. Additionally, 275 people were evacuated by volunteers. During the day, Russian forces attacked 30 towns and villages in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • The Vovchansk community in Kharkiv Oblast is under intensified enemy shelling. Over 20 glide bombs were dropped at the city and surrounding areas. Additionally, the enemy deployed multiple rocket launchers, artillery, and drones. On Saturday, two civilian men were killed because of the shelling, and two others were injured.
  • During Saturday daytime, Russian forces launched a missile strike on the infrastructure of the suburbs of Sumy, resulting in the death of a woman. She sustained multiple injuries incompatible with life.
  • From 6:00 PM on Friday to 6:30 AM on Saturday, industrial consumers in all regions except Kherson were subject to restrictions, while residential consumers faced no electricity supply limitations. Additionally, there is a projected electricity shortage for May 11. The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine advises reducing consumption during peak hours from 5:00 PM to 10:00 PM.

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