Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “North” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, carried out 12 attacks in the areas of Strilecha, Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliynykove, Lukyantsi, Hatyshche, Pletenivka, Pylna, Vovchansk, and Buhruvatka. Aviation strikes were inflicted in the areas of Vilcha, Lyptsi, Lyman, Izbytske, Vesele, Petrivka, Kozacha Lopan, Synelnykove, Hlyboke, Shyroke, and Vovchanski Khutory.

In the “Khortytsia” OSG operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 19 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Novoyehorivka, Ivanivka, Stelmakhivka, where the enemy attempted to improve their tactical position, and airstrikes were conducted in the areas of Tverdokhlibove and Serhiivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 10 attacks in the vicinity of Makiivka, Nevske, Serebriansk Forest, Novosadove, and Terny. On the Siversk direction, 16 Russian attacks were repelled in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 27 attacks in the areas of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, Novyi, where the enemy, with air support, attempted to improve their tactical position and dealt an airstrike in the area of Kurdyumivka. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Toretsk direction, the enemy did not conduct offensive (assault) actions but delivered airstrikes in the areas of Pivnichne and New York. On the Pokrovsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 32 attacks in the areas of Semenivka, Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novopokrovske, Novoselivka Persha, Umanske, Netaylove, where the enemy, with air support, attempted to displace the Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions and conducted airstrikes in the areas of Karlivka, Mykolaivka, Oleksandropil, Stara Mykolaivka, Prohres, and Novohrodivka. On the Kurakhove direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Kostyantynivka, Solodke, Krasnohorivka, and Vodyane, where the enemy, with air support, attempted to breach the Ukrainian defense 10 times. On the Vremivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 attacks in the areas of Urozhaine and Staromayorske, where the enemy, with air support, attempted to displace Ukrainian units from their positions. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy, with air support, attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces twice in the area of Robotyne, conducted an airstrike in the area Storozheve and Mala Tokmachka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River. With air support, they conducted 5 unsuccessful attacks in the area of Krynky and delivered an airstrike in the area of Antonivka.

General conclusion: 

  • On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy employs an unconventional tactical formation for their battalion tactical groups: elite units from special operations forces operate as forward detachments, conducting intensive reconnaissance both at the frontline and throughout the tactical depth of the “North” OSG defense system on selected directions, including the use of UAVs, attempting to identify the most promising avenues for advancement.
  • The enemy’s forward units operate along a general north-south and southwest direction along two barrier zones – the Travyanske Reservoir and the Siversky Donets River. This allows the enemy to conserve forces and means by concentrating them on specific sectors eastward while simultaneously protecting their right flank with these water barriers.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 155 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, in the morning of May 11th, 7 enemy battalion tactical groups (BTGs) of the “Belgorod” Tactical Grouping crossed the Ukrainian state border and delivered the main strike towards Vovchansk (4 BTGs), with another strike towards Hlyboke and Lukyantsi (3 BTGs).
  • The enemy managed to advance on the main strike direction by up to 3.5 km towards Ohirtseve and Hatyshche, and towards Hlyboke and Lukyantsi by a distance ranging from 3.2 to 3.7 km. Battles are ongoing in the areas of Krasne and Morokhovets, where the Ukrainian Defense Forces are steadfastly holding their positions.
  • In the area of Zhuravlivka – Ustynka – Verhylevka, the enemy is deploying additional forces and assets to the state border from the 11th and 44th Army Corps, including assault units of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, recently, Russian forces have advanced westward from Kolomyichykha, approximately 1 km towards Pishchane. Battles have been ongoing northeast of Synkivka, Vilshany, Ivanivka, Stelmakhivka, Berestove, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, and Nevske.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces launched attacks near Terny, Torske, Serebriansk Forest, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Siversk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the Russian advance in the area of Rozdolivka, Verkhnyokamianske, near Spirne and Vyimka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced north of the “Kanal” neighborhood and hear the Т0504 Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka road. Fighting continued in the areas of Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, in the area of “Novyi” and “Kanal” neighborhoods, Ivanivske, Andriivka.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the center of Netaylove, south of the villages, south of Pervomaiske. Fighting continued near Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Novopokrovske, Ocheretyne, Semenivka, Novoselivka Persha, Sokil, and Umanske.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced in the northern part of Krasnohorivka. Fighting continued near Heorhiivka, Pobieda, Kostyantynivka, Novomykhailivka, Paraskoviivka, Solodke and Vodyane.
  • On the Vremivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the area of Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces made a slight advancement northwest of Novopokrovka, captured two detachment positions northwest of Verbove where they continued their assault.
  • On the Pryndniprovskiy direction, Russian forces slightly advanced in Krynky. Units of the 61st Separate Marines Brigade attempt to regain control over the Nestryha Island, however, their attacks are futile.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping has up to 53,000 personnel, with up to 32,000 directly on the Kharkiv direction, over 400 tanks, up to 1050 APCs, up to 1200 artillery guns, mortars, and MLRS.
  • The “Belgorod” Tactical Grouping which invaded Ukrainian territory, consists of the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps, a battalion of the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army, up to 8 motorized rifle regiments of the 18th and 72nd Motorized Rifle Divisions, up to 14 battalions, up to 5 battalions. Practically all units are not fully staffed, some battalions have up to 1.5 companies.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, combat operations are conducted by:
    • The 58th Separate SOF Battalion of the 1st Army Corps, the 17th Artillery Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps near Chasiv Yar.
    • The 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and units of the “Akmat” Chechen units in the area of Klishchiivka.
    • The 27th Artillery Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps in the area of Stupochky.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, combat operations are conducted by:
    • The 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 68th Army Corps near Vodyane,
    • The 5th and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 1st Army Corps near Krasnohorivka,
    • The 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army near Heorhiivka.
  • The 57th Separate Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army is advancing near Vuhledar.
  • The 292nd Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army is operating on the Orikhiv direction.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy is deploying its reserves towards the state border on the Slobozhansk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy will be escalating efforts in the near future. Reserves from the 30th and 41st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps are concentrating in the Rzhavets – Shebekino – Nova Tavilzhanka – Bezludivka area for this purpose.
  • In the near future, the enemy will launch an invasion from the territory of Kursk Oblast with the forces of the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, supported by units of the 11th Army Corps, in the general direction towards Velyka Pysarivka.
  • Expect enemy capture of Synkivka soon, along with intense rear-guard actions north of Kupyansk’s eastern outskirts, for Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Berestove.
  • The enemy’s objective is to reach the Hlyboke-Lukyantsi line to create conditions for advancing towards Lyptsi. In the area of Vovchansk, the enemy will attempt to advance along the Siversky Donets from north to south and bypass Vovchansk from the southwest and south through Synelnykove and Tsehelne.
  • The adversary may concentrate additional assault units in the advance zone of the 98th Airborne Division, where it previously managed to advance closest to the Chasiv Yar boundary. It will attempt to break through on May 10-11 along two axes: in the advance zone of the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division towards the “Kanal” neighborhood and in the advance zone of the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division towards the “Novyi” neighborhood.
  • The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
  • The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.
  • The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.05.24  

Personnel – almost 482,290 (+1260); 

Tanks 7,454 (+5); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,375 (+22); 

Artillery systems – 12,472 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,066 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 797 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,819 (+64);

Aircraft – 350 (+1);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,910 (+42);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,194 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 107 towns and villages and 106 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On May 11, Russian forces wounded 2 residents of Donetsk Oblast, one in each Novoselivka Persha and Mykolaivka.
  • Throughout the past day, Russian forces carried out 21 shelling attacks in Sumy Oblast, launched a missile strike, and dropped 8 mines on two communities. One woman lost her life in the missile strike.
  • Throughout the past day, Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia Oblast 542 times. Nine towns and villages were under enemy fire. In total, four reports of residential buildings being destroyed were received; civilians were not harmed as a result of the shelling.
  • Since the start of the Russian offensives in Kharkiv Oblast, a total of 4,073 people has been evacuated. 377 residents were evacuated from Chuhuiv district, 2,097 from Kharkiv district, 29 from Bohodukhiv district were evacuated by the authorities, and 570 people were evacuated by volunteers.
  • In Vovchansk, located in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, there are up to 500 residents remaining. All villages along the northern border of Kharkiv Oblast are under enemy fire practically around the clock. One person is reported dead and two people are reported injured.
  • Starting Monday, May 13th, 620 children will begin their studies at the first underground school in Kharkiv. A trial school day has already been conducted there. Mayor Ihor Terekhov hopes that by September 2024, the city authorities will manage to build at least three more underground schools in other districts of the city. The number of students willing to attend school in person already significantly exceeds the number of available seats.
  • Over the past day in Ukraine, consumer electricity demand was met through a combination of domestic power generation, commercial imports, and emergency aid from energy systems in Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, as reported by the Ministry of Energy’s press office. Emergency supplies amounted to less than 3% of daily electricity consumption.
  • Due to the shortage of electricity caused by Russian attacks, Ukrzaliznytsia Railway Company announced that during peak hours, the illumination of facades and specific areas of the country’s largest railway stations – Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, Odesa, and Kharkiv – will be turned off.

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