Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 14.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “North” on the Kharkiv direction, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting urban clearance operations in Vovchansk. Combat actions are ongoing, but the situation remains under control.

In the “Khortytsia” OSG operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 22 enemy attacks along the Lyman Pershyi – Synkivka, Vilshanka – Synkivka, Krokhmalne – Berestove, Kolomyichykha – Stelmakhivka, Kovalivka – Novoyehorivka, and Ploshchanka – Makiyivka directions. In some sectors, the Ukrainian Defense Forces improved their tactical positions. Battles for individual positions continue along the Kovalivka – Novoyehorivka and Kyslivka – Ivanivka directions. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 enemy attack along the Chervonopopivka – Ivanivka direction, improving tactical positions in certain sectors. On the Siversk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 15 enemy attacks along the Lysychansk – Bilohorivka, Novodruzhesk – Bilohorivka, Vesele – Verkhnyokamianske, Zolotarivka – Verkhnyokamianske, Vesele – Rozdolivka, and Mykolaivka – Spirne directions, with no success for the enemy. On the Kramatorsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 35 enemy attacks along the Bakhmut – Ivanivske, Bakhmut – Klishchiivka, and Odradivka – Klishchiivka directions. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 33 attacks on the Ocheretyne – Novooleksandrivka, Ocheretyne – Yevhenivka, Ocheretyne – Kalynove, and Arkhanhelske – Novooleksandrivka directions. Due to the intense enemy fire, some positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces were changed to ensure the preservation of personnel’s lives.  On the Kurakhove direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks, including areas such as Staromykhailivka – Krasnohorivka and Slavne – Novomykhailivka. On the Vremivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 attacks in the areas of Solodke – Vodyane, Zavitne Bazhannia – Staromayorske, and Volodyne – Staromayorske. On the Hulyaipole direction, the enemy did not conduct offensive (assault) actions but delivered artillery and mortar attacks on Chervone and Zelenyi Hai.  On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy, with air support, attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces twice in the area of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks in the direction of Oleshkivski Pisky – Krynky.

General conclusion: 

  • The relativelyrapid advancement of Russian forces in Vovchansk and the destruction of several bridges over key waterways within the town indicate that the Russian military command is establishing a buffer zone rather than attempting to advance deeper into Ukrainian territory.
  • Enemy advancement rates have decreased on the Kharkiv operational direction, while losses have increased.
  • The command of the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping doesn’t have enough troops and gear to push forward towards Stary Saltiv and Artemivka, which makes it tough for the “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping to make progress on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.
  • In the last 6 months, the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ ability to intercept aerial targets has significantly decreased. They managed to intercept only 46% of targets, compared to 73% in the previous 6 months, with the rate falling to 30% in April.
  • The adversary escalated the use of missiles and strike UAVs by 45% over the last 6 months, including a doubling of Shahed UAVs. The Russian Aerospace Forces continually experiment and adapt their air strike structure to exploit vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian Air Defense systems.
  • Responsibility for several missile strikes on Ukraine lies with the 52nd and 121st Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiments of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division, operating from Engels (Saratov Oblast) and Shaykovka (Kaluga Oblast) airbases. They employ Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers, using Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles, and Tu-22M3 long-range bombers from Engels airbase, utilizing Kh-22/32 cruise missiles.
  • The adversary faces challenges evacuating wounded from the Dnipro Delta islands due to a shortage of boats and the dominance of Ukrainian Defense Forces’ UAVs in the Dnipro Delta.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 148 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, units of the 79th and 280th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division and the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps are operating in the areas of Lyptsi and Vesele. The enemy is attempting to break through on two main direcyions – towards Lyptsi (along the general direction of Strilecha – Hlyboke and along the Lypets River from the direction of Lukyantsi). The enemy has fully occupied Hlyboke and is advancing southwest of Oliinykove and north of Lukyantsi, where it has achieved tactical success; its forward units are engaged in combat in the Lukyantsi area.
  • On the Vovchansk direction, units from the 1st and 47th Tank Divisions of the 1st Tank Army, along with the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army, are pushing towards Vovchansk from Pletenivka while also trying to flank the city from the west. They’re moving along the Siversky Donetsk River towards Ohirtseve – Buhruvatka and Hatyshche – Synelnykove to cut off the road from Starytsya to Vovchansk in the Prylipka area. Though they haven’t reached the road, the enemy is attempting to penetrate the area of Kreydova Hora north of Buhruvatka, advancing through the forest zone south of Ohirtseve. They’ve captured the Vovchansk Meat Processing Plant, a footwear factory, and are advancing towards the city center along the right bank of the Vovcha River. The enemy continues attacks in Prylipka and conducts clearance operations in Starytsya and Buhruvatka, but hasn’t fully controlled these areas. Russian forces attacked along the Izbytske – Starytsya – Buhruvatka line and near Tykhe. Fighting occurred between Lyptsi and the Vovchansk bulge near Zelene.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Hlyboke but withdrew from Ternova. The tactical group of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Vovchansk has only two logistical routes across two bridges, which have not yet been destroyed.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Makiivka, and Novoyehorivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted an unsuccessful assault on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces between Torske and Terny. They made minor advances north of Torske and south of Yampolivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces launched three ATACMS missiles at an ammunition depot in the occupied territory of Sorokine, Luhansk Oblast.
  • On the Siversk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka, and conducted counterattacks near Spirne and Rozdolivka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces regained previously lost positions in the wooded area in the southwest of Bohdanivka. Heavy fighting continued around Chasiv Yar. Combat operations persisted near Hryhorivka, Ivanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • Russian forces attempted to launch offensive operations from the western outskirts of Bohdanivka towards Kalynivka to create conditions for encircling Chasiv Yar through its northern flank. They also advanced on the southern flank of Chasiv Yar, particularly west of Ivanivka and in the vicinity of the Stupky-Holubivskyi-2 nature reserve. The attack on Klishchiivka was unsuccessful and resulted in the loss of nearly the entire assault group.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces were advancing westward from Ocheretyne towards Novooleksandrivka, westward from Semenivka towards Umanske, and attacking in the area of Arkhanhelske, on the Solovyove-Novopokrovske line, towards Umanske, and on the line of Netaylove-Pervomaiske-Nevelske.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces are advancing towards the center of Krasnohorivka, within the vicinity of Paraskoviivka, and in the fields south of the village. The enemy has launched 18 attacks in the direction of Kurakhove, particularly near Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces have advanced north in Robotyne and in the fields east of Robotyne. Positional battles have been ongoing near Robotyne and Verbove.
  • On the Pryndniprovskiy direction, positional battles were ongoing on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky. The Ukrainian Defense Forces launched a missile strike on the positional area of the enemy’s radar station of the 3rd Radio-Technical Regiment of the 31st Air Defense Division on Mount Ai-Petri in the occupied Crimea.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Up to 25,000 personnel, including the 13th BARS detachment, are involved in operations in the Chasiv Yar area.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy command has deployed up to 5-6 BTGs, reinforced with tank units (presumably from the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division and the 153rd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division). Within the next 24 hours, the enemy command may increase its efforts on the Kharkiv direction, by engaging an additional 2 BTGs from the 30th and 41st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps or the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Army.
  • In the near future, the enemy will launch an invasion from the territory of Kursk Oblast with the forces of the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, supported by units of the 11th Army Corps, in the general direction towards Velyka Pysarivka.
  • Expect enemy capture of Synkivka soon, along with intense rear-guard actions north of Kupyansk’s eastern outskirts, for Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Berestove.
  • The adversary may concentrate additional assault units in the advance zone of the 98th Airborne Division, where it previously managed to advance closest to the Chasiv Yar boundary. It will attempt to break through on May 10-11 along two axes: in the advance zone of the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division towards the “Kanal” neighborhood and in the advance zone of the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division towards the “Novyi” neighborhood.
  • The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation.
  • The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
  • The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.05.24  

Personnel – almost 485,430 (+1400); 

Tanks 7,496 (+11); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,460 (+43); 

Artillery systems – 12,515 (+28);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,070 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 798 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,907 (+29);

Aircraft – 351 (+1);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,985 (+49);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,197 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 96 towns and villages and 78 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night of May 14th, the Ukrainian air defense successfully shot down all 18 Russian Shahed drones launched by the adversary.
  • On May 14th, during daylight hours, Russian occupying forces dealt multiple strikes on residential areas in the central part of Kharkiv. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, at least 16 people were injured, including three children. As a result of Russian shelling of Kharkiv on the evening of May 14, 21 people were injured, including three children.
  • The Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office reports that on May 14th, in the village of Starytsya in the Vovchansk community, a Russian serviceman shot and killed a local resident at close range. Additionally, during the armed attack, another man went missing.
  • In Vovchansk, two civilian volunteers went missing on May 10th. According to the police, they were shot by occupiers, and one of them may have been killed.
  • On the morning of May 14th, Russian forces attacked the city of Nikopol, resulting in the death of a 45-year-old man. Another local resident sustained shrapnel wounds.
  • Due to increased electricity consumption (due to cold weather), scheduled emergency power outages were implemented in Kyiv in the evening of May 14, including for residential areas, according to a statement from the Kyiv City Military Administration. Later, “Ukrenerho” announced that it was forced to implement controlled emergency power outages in all regions of Ukraine. Additionally, electricity imports from neighboring countries are breaking records again. Over the course of a day, electricity imports from Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Moldova totaled 21,072 MW-hours.
  • At the Zmiiv and Trypillya Thermal Power Plants, debris from missile strikes on March 22 and April 11 is still being cleared. The debris removal is expected to continue for another one and a half to two months.
  • Only half of the Ukrainian refugees currently residing in Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic are willing to return home if conditions allow. Most respondents cited the need for normal functioning of critical infrastructure (34%) and security (34%). Other important factors include housing (26%) and the cessation of full-scale invasion (26%). Additionally, 16% emphasized the opportunity to find employment, and 13% highlighted the importance of their children being able to attend school or daycare. These findings are from a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in April.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent